景观锚链的近海大气腐蚀调查研究

在2007年3月对暴露于湛江观海长廊近8年的景观锚链进行了大气腐蚀调查和研究.现场调查结果显示,各站点锚链均受到不同程度的腐蚀,锈层呈黄褐色,站点2和站点3的锈层易剥落.锚链的扫描电镜结果表明,外表面锈层疏松多孔,并伴有大量的裂纹,内表面局部存在大量诱导腐蚀发生的微孔,表面锈层中均含有S元素和Cl元素.红外光谱分析结果显示,锚链表面锈层均有α-FeOOH.大气湿热气候、高含量的Cl-和H2S是锚链钢严重腐蚀及发生块状开裂的主要因素.     

地下水中病原菌及其快速检测技术研究进展

全世界尤其在发展中国家由地下水病原菌导致的环境安全问题日益频发,成为影响人群健康的重要因素。传统的病原菌检测技术存在费时、灵敏度低以及难以准确定量等问题,无法满足对地下水中种类日益增多的病原菌的有效监测。近年来,地下水中病原菌检测技术不断发展,其中聚合酶链反应技术、生物芯片及生物传感器等检测技术成为研究热点,在这些技术的基础上,以能实现微型便携、快速灵敏、准确特异和经济方便为目的的新材料和不同技术手段的整合技术成为地下水中病原菌检测发展的新方向。文章对近年来病原菌快速检测新技术进行综述,以期为受污染的地下水病原菌的有效监测和控制提供技术支持。     

Use of Market Data to Assess Bushmeat Hunting Sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Abstract: Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less‐accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market‐based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.     

都西庙水库生物群落的牧食链结构与渔业利用

都西庙水库初级生产者只有浮游植物,它对太阳能年总辐射量的利用率为0.07%,生态学效率分别为10.5%、0.26%、6.40%,综合鱼产力为17.8g/m~2,各种经济鱼类对浮游植物的能量利用率为0.55%,表明牧食链中能量流动与分配不合理。本文对科学利用和保护该库饵料资源提出了建议。     

论事故与系统危险性的关系

对安全评价中的一些基本概念和参数作了明确的论述,如危险、事故、系统危险性、事故链、固有危险和危险特性、发生事故的难易度与事故概率以及系统可靠度。对澄清当前尚有争论的概念有所帮助,有利于安全评价的顺利进行,也有利于安全科学学科建设。最后对系统危险性的发展趋势作了几点预测。     

船舶安全熵概念的提出及应用

船舶航行安全很大程度上取决于操作者对船舶航行过程中各种信息的把握,信息掌握的多少可作为衡量船舶安全的一个标准。把船舶航行链分为5种信息处理过程,利用信息熵的原理,提出船舶安全熵的概念,并建立了数学模型。根据船舶航行信息过程的具体因素,建立船舶航行安全评价指标体系;利用熵权法确定5种信息单元及其安全因素权重,对船舶航行的安全熵进行计算,可根据评价模型对船舶安全进行有效评价。利用渤海湾船舶M进行验证,其结果发现船员素质安全熵最大。船舶安全熵方法是对船舶安全评估的一种新探索。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

Method to analyze the regional life loss risk by airborne chemicals released after devastating earthquakes: A simulation approach

Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km × 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future.     

地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。