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81.
Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed. 相似文献
82.
Heather?R. Britt Bradley?P.?CarlinEmail author Traci?L.?Toomey Alexander?C.?Wagenaar 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2005,12(4):411-426
Misuse of alcohol is a significant public health problem, potentially resulting in unintentional injuries, motor vehicle crashes,
drownings, and, perhaps of greatest concern, serious acts of violence, including assaults, rapes, suicides, and homicides.
Although previous research establishes a link between alcohol consumption increased levels of violence, studies relating the
density of alcohol outlets (e.g., restaurants, bars, liquor stores) and the likelihood of violent crime have been less common.
In this paper we test for such a relationship at the small area level, using data from 79 neighborhoods in the city of Minneapolis,
Minnesota. We adopt a fully Bayesian point of view using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods as available
in the popular and freely available WinBUGS language. Our models control for important covariates (e.g., neighborhood racial
heterogeneity, age heterogeneity) and also account for spatial association in unexplained variability using conditionally
autoregressive (CAR) random effects. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between alcohol outlet density
and violent crime, while also permitting easy mapping of neighborhood-level predicted and residual values, the former useful
for intervention in the most at-risk neighborhoods and the latter potentially useful in identifying covariates still missing
from the fixed effects portion of the model. 相似文献
83.
In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters.
Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte
Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions
to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local
Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data
on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin. 相似文献
84.
张瑞华 《辽宁城乡环境科技》2004,24(5):16-18
从硒的生物学作用和防治疾病等方面剖析了硒与人体健康的关系;从元素地球化学、生物地球化学和化学地理等方面探讨了我国缺硒区的形成、分布和等级的划分;从环境地球化学物质场和元素生物地球化学营养链等方面.阐明了作物、禽畜和人体缺硒的原因、危害及其人体补硒的途径和方法,提出了在缺硒区运用元素生物地球化学营养链营养结构模式的原理、和技术方法,从土壤中获取富硒有机食品,供居民食用,是进行食物补硒、提高人体摄硒量、提高人体免疫功能和防治缺硒病症的根本措施。 相似文献
85.
Shen YH 《Chemosphere》2002,48(10):1075-1079
This study investigates the feasibility of using ethylene oxide chain adsorption to determine the surface area of an expandable clay, montmorillonite. Experimental results indicate that high molecular weight poly(ethylene oxide) or nonionic surfactant with long ethylene oxide chain should be used to provide reasonable estimations for monolayer capacity. The method has advantages over Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller method in that it is readily applicable to a wide range of areas, particularly to 2:1 layer silicates under aqueous conditions. 相似文献
86.
基于2014年和2015年环保部发布的省级回收数据,分析了现有传统回收体系下,各省的电子废物回收率变化,发现省级尺度电子废物的回收率呈现较大波动,这与电子废物的跨省流动有密切关系.为此,本文基于现有回收渠道的省际流动网络格局,采用网络分析中的层次聚类方法,揭示全国电子废物流动的区域化特征.结果显示根据区域化特征重新划分市场区,可以使主要市场区的整体回收率波动明显降低,从而为制定合理的回收目标提供参考.针对这一研究结果,提出基于市场区域化特征,建立全国一体化的回收利用市场和差异化的区域性回收目标,有助于充分利用市场机制优化中国电子废物循环利用的空间格局.最后,讨论了生产者主导和处理企业主导两种治理机制对空间优化的潜在影响. 相似文献
87.
88.
介绍了我国生态经济产业在农业、工业两大领域的实践情况,从生态设计、技术体系、管理体系和生态产业链的角度探讨了今后我国生态经济产业的发展趋势。 相似文献
89.
地球是一个具有一定自洁、自我修复功能的大生态系统,它由各种植物、动物、人类、微生物有机的组成,维持着自然界的生态平衡。而大量的人类活动给地球的生态平衡产生了较大影响,特别是明显加快的城市化进程,使得这种平衡逐渐受到不可逆的破坏。论文重点分析了城市化给生态平衡所带来的问题,并由此提出了从生物链的角度建立生物资源平衡,从而实现新的生态平衡。将城市污染物的资源化和生态平衡联系起来,通过建立生物资源补充机制、改变城市垃圾和污水的处理方法等措施,促进生物资源平衡,在相对较大的范围内实现人类发展与自然相协调,实现可持续发展。 相似文献
90.