Mapping social vulnerability to natural hazards in Italy: A suitable tool for risk mitigation strategies

Italy is one of the European countries that are most heavily exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, which might cause large economic losses. In this context, the assessment of social vulnerability has an important role for evaluating the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. However there are currently no published studies analysing social vulnerability and its spatial distribution in Italy. Within this framework, this paper aims to apply a proven method for assessing social vulnerability at the national scale, while considering the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the Italian population. The proposed methodology is based on the Hazard-of-Place Model approach, and uses free and open source software applications (FOSS). Specifically, we selected significant components through Principal Component Analysis and derived their spatial distribution. Using component scores, we derived a social vulnerability index, evaluated its geographic distribution, and performed a cluster analysis on its spatial variation. The analysis identified different spatial patterns across Italy, providing useful information for identifying the communities most likely to experience negative natural disaster impacts due to their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This research represents an important contribution to improve the potentiality of risk mitigation strategies and in designing risk custom-made policies.     

基于SPEI的云南中部区域干旱时空变化特征分析

利用云南中部地区1961~2010年逐月降水和气温资料,采用降水距平百分率和历史旱情资料验证了标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)在该地区的适用性,并采用Mann-kendall突变检验、Morlet小波和经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)等方法,分析了该地区干旱的时空演变特征,结果表明:(1)SPEI与降水距平百分率在时空上具有很好的相关性,验证了SPEI对降水变化的敏感性;(2)SPEI指数与历史旱情资料比较吻合,能够有效地反映云南中部区域的干旱特征;(3)年均SPEI呈波动下降趋势,干季SPEI降低趋势明显。年均SPEI存在着24a的主周期和9a的次周期,并于1977年发生了突变,此后开始降低,在整体上呈现出干旱化的趋势;(4)从SPEI的空间分布特征来看,其在整体上受大尺度气候系统的影响表现出一致的下降趋势,而在区域内部则表现出东南-西北(干热河谷)的反向结构差异。     

我国中西部生态脆弱带坡耕地水土流失及坡地梯化

中西部生态脆弱带是我国坡耕地集中分布地区 ,坡耕地水土流失是中西部生态脆弱带水土流失的主要类型 ,坡地梯化是防治坡耕地水土流失和实现坡耕地可持续利用的重要措施 ,国家应加大投资力度开展以坡地梯化为中心的坡耕地综合开发整治工作     

Constraints on foraging success due to resource ecology limit colony productivity in social insects

The benefit of group living is a fundamental question in social evolution. For sociality to evolve, each individual must gain in terms of some fitness component by living in larger groups. However, in social insects, a decrease in per capita success in brood production has been observed in larger groups. While it has been proposed that this decrease could be outweighed by an increase in the predictability of success, a functional basis to this hypothesis has so far never been demonstrated. In this paper, using foraging economics as a functional proxy to colony productivity, we construct a model to explore how number of foragers in the colony interacts with the ecology of resources to influence per capita foraging success and its predictability. The results of the model show that there is no increase in per capita foraging success in larger colonies under most circumstances, though there is an increase in its predictability. We then test the model with empirical data on the foraging behavior of the primitively eusocial wasp, Ropalidia marginata. The consistency between the data and the model suggests that foraging economics could provide a robust functional basis in explaining the relationship between colony size and productivity.     

Quantifying inconsistencies in old cadastral maps and their impact on land-use reconstructions

ABSTRACT

Old cadastral maps represent a historical reference dataset for long-term land-use reconstructions. This study presents identification of inconsistencies in the nineteenth century Franziscean cadastre, one of the largest sets of old cadastral maps worldwide, by comparing three versions of the maps and written documents created in the same period. We identified all parcels and their land-use in the four sub-sources in six study areas. The overall share of inconsistencies among 5 771 identified parcels is 7.4%, with the biggest share of inconsistency in agroforestry and forestry classes. The most frequent inconsistencies are of ‘Not differentiable land use’ (n = 212) and ‘Different land-use’ categories across the sub-sources (n = 113). We conclude that the frequency of uncertainties in old cadastral maps may limit the validity of historical land-use reconstructions, affecting the eventual restoration and management efforts based on such data. We provide a summary for the use of Franziscean cadastre.     

原生动物生物指数的进一步验证及其适用性分析

利用意大利河流TorrenteStirone和Parma的原生动物数据及水质化学数据 ,对作者所建立的原生动物生物指数的适用性进行了验证 ,结果表明 ,所得CPV与化学综合污染指数有显著的相关 ,说明建立的生物指数有广泛的适用性。文中对SPV的使用方法、适用范围、应注意的问题进行了分析和讨论。     

中原经济区城市资源环境绩效指标体系构建与实证

为了识别城市或“相似群体”最重要的资源环境“短板”问题,以中原经济区31个城市为研究区域,选择水土资源、能源、环境质量和污染物排放及治理水平等4个方面共计33项指标,利用层次分析修正法确定指标权重,采用正向指标极大化、负向指标极小化、适中指标平均化的标准化方法对研究区域内各市资源环境绩效进行测算. 研究表明:①从资源环境绩效角度来看,中原经济区城市可分为“双高”超载型、农业型、“双低”超载型、资源型四大类. ②占中原经济区城市总数2/5的资源型城市,由于过度强调资源产出、忽视环境保护而成为经济区环境问题高发、资源环境矛盾较为突出的集中区域. ③在对4个Ⅰ级指标(资源利用效率、能源利用效率、环境质量指数、污染物排放及治理水平)设定均衡权重情况下,15个城市的能源利用效率居末位,10个城市的资源利用效率居末位,表明中原经济区提高资源环境绩效应率先在能源、资源利用效率领域实现突破. 所构建的资源环境绩效评估指标体系仍有待进一步优化,今后应加大对可再生资源能源利用、农村生态环境特别是农村土地重金属及有机物污染等问题的关注.      

21世纪初华中地区发展的资源环境基础

作为中国21世纪资源开发的重要场所,华中地区资源环境开发利用将对国家社会经济发展起到举足轻重的作用。对华中地区资源本底特征、人地关系演进状态及发展趋势进行了分析,认 为华中地区拥有较好的资源基础,特别是在水土两大资源的结合方面。但是从现状和未来国家高速工业发展看,未来华中地区自然资源承载负荷将面临较以往更为巨大和更为艰难的挑战。一方面,优越的地理位置使华中地区在国家未来经济发展与资源环境协调过程中的重要地位更为突出,另一方面,当地的人口增长和经济发展同样会对有限的资源基础造成越来越大的压力。因此,区域发展政策应当做出相应调整。     

In-between soil erosion and sustainable land management: climate aridity and vegetation in a traditional agro-forest system (Costiera Amalfitana,southern Italy)

The delineation of bioclimatic areas is a key tool in informing sustainable land management strategies, especially in the light of climate change. It requires an in-depth analysis of climate data but also of the physical and biological factors that affect the distribution of natural vegetation. The present study applies an exploratory data analysis aimed at defining bioclimatic conditions in an area characterized by steep slopes and prone to soil erosion (Amalfi Coast, southern Italy). To this end, we analyzed long-term (1959–1999) monthly rainfall and temperature data measured at 28 gauging stations within the study area using a geographic information system and multivariate statistical tools. Then, we analyzed how the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature data relates to topography, vegetation cover, and soil erosion. We also derived bioclimatic indicators from the geostatistical analysis. We then identify and comment on drawbacks found in the procedure used in the present study, discussing possible solutions to overcome such problems. We finally discuss the potential contribution of this study to the development of sustainable land management policies for socio-ecological systems with complex topography.