Potential Ecological Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Buffel Grass in Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract:  Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity. Such is the case of buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distributions, suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the arid and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.     

The capital gains from trade are not enough: evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country cannot endure negative genuine savings for long periods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless, theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter of non-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negative genuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one alleges that the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in the terms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings of the resource exporter. The second alternative points at technological change as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the data of Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these two hypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms of trade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reserves in these two open economies.     

Assessment of predation risk via illumination level: facultative central place foraging in the cricetid rodent Phyllotis darwini

It is well known that the risk of predation affects prey decision making. However, few studies have been concerned with the cues used by prey to assess this risk. Prey animals may use indirect environmental cues to assess predation hazard since direct evaluation may be dangerous. I studied the assessment of predation risk, manipulated via environmental illumination level, and the trade-off between foraging and predation hazard avoidance in the nocturnal rodentPhyllotis darwini (Rodentia: Cricetidae). In experimental arenas I simulated dark and full moon nights (which in nature correlate with low and high predation risk, respectively) and measured the immediate responses of animals to flyovers of a raptor model. Second, varying illumination only, I evaluated patch use, food consumption, central place foraging, and nocturnal variation of body weight. During flyover experiments, animals showed significantly more evasive reactions under full moon illumination than in moonless conditions. In the patch use experiments, rodents significantly increased their giving-up density and decreased their total food consumption under moonlight. On dark nights, rodents normally fed in the food patch, but when illumination was high they became central place foragers in large proportion. Moreover, the body weight of individuals decreased proportionately more during bright nights. These results strongly suggest thatP. darwini uses the level of environmental illumination as a cue to the risk of being preyed upon and may sacrifice part of its energy return to avoid risky situations.     

Effect of El Nĩno on demographic,morphological, and chemical parameters in turtle-grass (Thalassia testudinum): an unexpected test of indicators

We examined the response of demographic, morphological, and chemical parameters of turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum), to much-higher-than-normal rainfall associated with an El Niño event in the winter of 1997–1998. Up to 20 inches of added rain fell between December 1997 and March 1998, triggering widespread and persistent phytoplankton blooms along the west coast of Florida. Water-column chlorophyll concentrations estimated from serial SeaWiFS imagery were much higher during the El Niño event than in the previous or following years, although the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms varied among sites. Seagrass samples collected in 1997, 1998, and 1999 provided an excellent opportunity to test the responsiveness of Thalassia to decline and subsequent improvement of water quality and clarity in four estuaries. Using a scoring technique based on temporal responsiveness, spatial consistency, and statistical strength of indicators, we found that several morphological parameters (Thalassia shoot density, blade width, blade number, and shoot-specific leaf area) were responsive and consistent measures of light stress. Some morphological parameters, such as rhizome apex density, responded to declines and subsequent improvement in water clarity, but lacked the statistical discriminating power necessary to be useful indicators. However, rhizome sugar, starch, and the total carbohydrate concentrations also exhibited spatially and temporally consistent variation as well as statistical strength. Because changes in shoot density, as well as water clarity, affect rhizome carbohydrate levels, a composite metric based on Thalassia shoot density and rhizome carbohydrate levels together is probably more useful than either parameter alone as an indicator of seagrass health.     

山西中部地区地震灾害损失预测

简要分析了山西中部的历史地震灾害,用地震安全性评定的综合概率法计算了每个单元遭遇烈度的概率,并对建筑物类型进行分类,根据各类建筑物的易损性矩阵和不同类型单元的人涡震亡率、震伤率矩阵,计算出各个单元建筑物的期望经济损失和人员伤亡期望绝对值,并对计算结果进行了分析和比较。     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics: Case Studies in the Former Soviet Union,the Conterminous United States,Mexico and Brazil

This research assessed land-use impacts on C flux at a national level in four countries: former Soviet Union, United States, Mexico and Brazil, including biotic processes in terrestrial ecosystems (closed forests, woodlands, and croplands), harvest of trees for wood and paper products, and direct C emission from fires. The terrestrial ecosystems of the four countries contain approximately 40% of the world's terrestrial biosphere C pool, with the FSU alone having 27% of the global total. Average phytomass C densities decreased from south to north while average soil C densities in all three vegetation types generally increased from south to north. The C flux from land cover conversion was divided into a biotic component and a land-use component. We estimate that the total net biotic flux (Tg/yr) was positive (= uptake) in the FSU (631) and the U.S. (332), but negative in Mexico (−37) and Brazil (−16). In contrast, total flux from land use was negative (= emissions) in all four countries (TgC/yr): FSU −343; U.S. −243; Mexico −35; and Brazil −235. The total net effect of the biotic and land-use factors was a C sink in the FSU and the U.S. and a C source in both Brazil and Mexico. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Air pollution and inhalation exposure to particulate matter of different sizes in rural households using improved stoves in central China

Household air pollution is considered to be among the top environmental risks in China.To examine the performance of improved stoves for reduction of indoor particulate matter(PM) emission and exposure in rural households, individual inhalation exposure to size-resolved PM was investigated using personal portable samplers carried by residents using wood gasifier stoves or improved coal stoves in a rural county in Central China.Concentrations of PM with different sizes in stationary indoor and outdoor air were also monitored at paired sites. The stationary concentrations of size-resolved PM in indoor air were greater than those in outdoor air, especially finer particles PM0.25. The daily averaged exposure concentrations of PM0.25, PM1.0, PM2.5 and total suspended particle for all the surveyed residents were 74.4 ± 41.1, 159.3 ± 74.3, 176.7 ± 78.1 and 217.9 ± 78.1 μg/m3,respectively. Even using the improved stoves, the individual exposure to indoor PM far exceeded the air quality guideline by WHO at 25 μg/m3. Submicron particles PM1.0 were the dominant PM fraction for personal exposure and indoor and outdoor air. Personal exposure exhibited a closer correlation with indoor PM concentrations than that for outdoor concentrations. Both inhalation exposure and indoor air PM concentrations in the rural households with gasifier firewood stoves were evidently lower than the reported results using traditional firewood stoves. However, local governments in the studied rural areas should exercise caution when widely and hastily promoting gasifier firewood stoves in place of improved coal stoves, due to the higher PM levels in indoor and outdoor air and personal inhaled exposure.     

宁安市城区集中供热工程环境效益探讨

实施集中供热是城市环境污染的根本途径,不仅可以大幅度地提高城镇供热质量,改善居民生活环境,满足城区集中供热突出问题,还可以推动城镇环境建设和经济发展,有利于旅游事业的拓凰     

Problems of Syrdarya river basin management

Prior to independence, Central Asian countries were closely interconnected through the regional management incorporating water, energy, and food sectors. This approach, supported by the central government of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), functioned effectively — meeting the needs of both upstream and downstream countries. However, after independence, Central Asian countries started prioritizing their own economic development policies without due account to regional concerns such as joint use of water resources, leading to instability. In this study, the case of Syrdarya basin was investigated to show how such strategies create tension in the region, since primary focus is given to national interests, without consideration for regional problems. To address this issue, an integrated approach to incorporating water, energy, and agriculture is needed. It is suggested that a single sector approach on water alone does not lead to stability, and a multi-sectoral approach is necessary to ensure sustainable development. Countries sharing benefits from the river have to be responsible for costs of operation and maintenance of the water facilities.