汶川地震前成都市避难场所应急能力评估

为判断地震避难场所紧急避难能力是否满足居民灾后紧急避难阶段的需求,提出基于L-A模型的避难场所应急能力评估方法。该方法充分考虑紧急避难场所容纳能力、居民空间分布状况、紧急疏散路径因素,采用空间网络分析方法确定避难场所服务范围,将区域未能接纳人数及地震避难场所利用率作为避难场所评估分析的重要因素,并综合运用GIS技术实现评估分析的可视化。最后以成都市现有避难场所布局为例进行分析,结果表明:在震后紧急避难阶段成都中心城区有一定数量的人群未能安全避难且紧急避难场所资源分布不均衡。     

基于Copula函数的成都夏季O3污染潜势模型

利用成都市2016~2019年6~8月O₃浓度的逐时监测数据以及该时段同时次的地面气象观测资料,构建了O₃污染潜势3维(紫外辐射、相对湿度和气温)Copula联合概率分布模型,并开展了模型的适用性研究.首先,通过对SciPy库概率分布函数的优选,确定了不同O₃浓度等级条件下紫外辐射、气温和相对湿度的最优边缘概率分布函数(均通过了显著性水平a=0.05的K-S检验);其次,计算了3种Copula联合概率分布函数的均方根误差(RMSE值)、赤池信息准则(AIC值)、贝叶斯信息量(BIC值),并借助Anderson-Darling检验,发现非对称3维frank Copula联合概率分布函数(M3Copula)可以最佳地表征不同O₃浓度等级条件下紫外辐射、相对湿度和气温的联合概率分布特征;最后,将不同O₃浓度等级条件下M3Copula联合概率密度作为对应O₃浓度等级的隶属度,O₃污染潜势的分类结果对实际O₃浓度等级具有较好的指示意义,模拟的平均准确率为63%,其中优等级、良等级、轻度污染等级以及中度及以上污染等级的模拟准确率分别为82%、64%、48%和75%.     

Volatile organic compounds in wintertime North China Plain: Insights from measurements of proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS)

The characteristics of wintertime volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the North China Plain (NCP) region are complicated and remain obscure. VOC measurements were conducted by a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) at a rural site in the NCP from November to December 2018. Uncalibrated ions measured by PTR-ToF-MS were quantified and the overall VOC compositions were investigated by combining the measurements of PTR-ToF-MS and gas chromatography-mass spectrometer/flame ionization detector (GC-MS/FID). The measurement showed that although atmospheric VOCs concentrations are often dominated by primary emissions, the secondary formation of oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) is non-negligible in the wintertime, i.e., OVOCs accounts for 42% ± 7% in the total VOCs (151.3 ± 75.6 ppbV). We demonstrated that PTR-MS measurements for isoprene are substantially overestimated due to the interferences of cycloalkanes. The chemical changes of organic carbon in a pollution accumulation period were investigated, which suggests an essential role of fragmentation reactions for large, chemically reduced compounds during the heavy-polluted stage in wintertime pollution. The changes of emission ratios of VOCs between winter 2011 and winter 2018 in the NCP support the positive effect of “coal to gas” strategies in curbing air pollutants. The high abundances of some key species (e.g. oxygenated aromatics) indicate the strong emissions of coal combustion in wintertime of NCP. The ratio of naphthalene to C8 aromatics was proposed as a potential indicator of the influence of coal combustion on VOCs.     

北京平原区第四系地下水污染风险评价

简述了我国近年来在地下水污染调查与评价方面的工作进展,指出了存在的若干问题.探讨了地下水污染风险评价中的相关概念,并重点论述了地下水污染风险评价与污染评价、脆弱性评价及质量评价的异同.针对北京市平原区的特点,选取了地下水污染评价、地下水质量评价、地下水系统脆弱性评价、地下水系统污染源荷载这4个指标作为评价因子.采用专家打分法确定4个评价因子权重.北京平原区地下水污染风险高、较高、中等、较低、低污染风险区的面积分别为1 232.1、699.3、1 951.4、2 644、133.2 km2.平原区西部及近郊一带污染风险性较高,地下水系统较高的脆弱性和较强的地下水污染源荷载共同作用的结果.在平原东南通州地区,主要是由于历史污染源的存在使得地下水污染的风险较高.     

三江平原典型沼泽湿地养分累积与沉积特征

研究了三江平原两类典型沼泽湿地(毛果苔草沼泽和芦苇沼泽)沉积物剖面有机碳、全氮、全磷和全硫的垂直分布规律,初步分析了三江平原湿地的沉积速率与沉积通量.结果表明,土壤有机碳、全氮、全磷和全硫在垂直方向上具有明显的分层和富聚现象,自上而下,有机碳的含量逐渐降低;全氮含量呈先增加后减少的分布趋势;毛果苔草沼泽全磷含量呈先减少后增加的"V"型分布,芦苇沼泽全磷含量逐渐降低;全硫的分布和有机碳的分布规律一致.相关性分析表明,全氮、全磷和全硫与有机碳之间呈极显著的正相关关系(P<0.01);有机碳与容重之间呈极显著的负相关关系(P<0.01).植被类型是影响沼泽湿地土壤有机碳、全氮、全磷和全硫的空间分布的主要因素之一.应用137Cs、210Pb测定沉积年代,并结合恒定放射性通量(CRS)模式推算年龄的结果表明,三江平原湿地平均沉积速率为0.33 cm·a-1,沉积通量为0.03～0.48 g·(cm2·a)-1,平均为0.29 g·(cm2·a)-1.     

华北平原典型剖面地下水三氮污染时空分布特征

华北平原地下水氮元素污染的时空分布特征鲜有报道,本文结合华北平原水文地质条件,从山前平原至中部平原选取两个剖面,四次采集地下水样品并测定三氮含量,调查评价典型剖面上三氮污染状况并深入分析其时空分布特征。结果表明:华北平原典型剖面上地下水的三氮中超标最为严重的是氨氮;三氮总量整体上随时间呈上升趋势;硝态氮、氨氮、亚硝态氮含量的空间分布不尽相同,前两者在山前平原的含量高于中部平原;第三者则呈相反趋势;从垂直方向上看,三氮含量随地下水埋深增加而减小。在不同的水井类型中,灌溉井和监测井中三氮的含量普遍较高,而在饮用水井中氨氮污染相对严重,会对人类健康造成一定风险。     

Sulfur cycle in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland ecosystem in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

The sulfur cycle and its compartmental distribution within an atmosphere-plant-soil system was studied using a compartment model in the typical meadow Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland in the Sanjiang Plain Northeast China. The results showed that in the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem, soil was the main storage compartment and current hinge of sulfur in which 98.4% sulfur was accumulated, while only 1.6% sulfur was accumulated in the plant compartment. In the plant subsystem, roots and litters were the main storage compartment of sulfur and they remained 83.5% of the total plant sulfur. The calculations of sulfur turnover through the compartments of the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem demonstrated that the above-ground component took up 0.99 gS/m2 from the root, of which 0.16 gS/m2 was translocated to the roots and 0.83 gS/m2 to the litter. The roots took in 1.05 gS/m2 from the soil, subsequent translocation back to the soil accounted for 1.31 gS/m2, while there was 1.84 gS/m2 in the litter and the net transfer of sulfur to the soil was more than 0.44 gS/(m2·a). The emission of H2S from the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem to the atmosphere was 1.83 mgS/(m2·a), while carbonyl sulfide (COS) was absorbed by the typical meadow C. angustifolia wetland ecosystem from the atmosphere at the rate of 1.76 mgS/(m2·a). The input of sulfur by the rainfall to the ecosystem was 4.85 mgS/m2 during the growing season. The difference between input and output was 4.78 mgS/m2, which indicated that sulfur was accumulated in the ecosystem and may cause wetland acidify in the future.     

东部平原地区湖泊湿地的恢复与可持续发展对策

湖泊湿地是我国的重要湿地生态系统,具有许多经济价值和社会服务功能,合理开发和利用湖泊湿地资源有利于促进我国广大湖区的可持续发展。结合有关东部平原地区湖泊湿地的研究,提出该区湖泊湿地的恢复与可持续发展对策,指出湖泊湿地的恢复应坚持生态、经济和社会可持续发展的原则,并根据具体的生态环境状况来进行,旨在为恢复与保护湖泊湿地的实际操作提供科学依据。     

成都市温江边界层风场特征的研究

着眼于成都地区污染气象特征,利用温江2004年~2012年的地面观测资料及同期的探空资料,对该地区风场的统计特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)从风频而言,温江地面风春、夏、秋3季均以偏北风为主,冬季则以东北风为主,因此,全年的主导风为偏北风。(2)从风速而言,区域静风和小风频率较高,占全年的68.7%;近10年来,温江年和4季的平均风速均呈现出减小趋势。(3)基于修正的帕斯奎尔稳定度分级法,利用幂指数律公式拟合了风随高度的变化,发现风廓线指数比国标值偏高,并随稳定度的增加而增大。(4)风速、稳定度联合频率的大值区主要出现在风速小于3m/s、稳定度为D~E类。上述研究成果对区域大气环境规划和工程治理具有重要的参考价值。     

遥感图像自动识别监测平原地区农村居民点用地变化

以安徽淮北平原地区为研究区,充分利用1993年时相1∶5万土地利用背景空间数据库信息和地理信息系统（GIS）技术,对2003年遥感图像研究采用基于主分量和形态学分析的区域聚类分类方法,自动识别提取农村居民点用地,对安徽淮北平原地区及各市1993和2003年农村居民点用地面积及其变化进行监测, 分析了动态度和相对变化率。方法利用了土地利用背景空间数据的先验知识,将形态学和传统的分类手段相结合,使识别结果更加可靠和准确,经检验精度达到90%以上,基本满足农村居民点用地变化监测需求。1993~2003年,安徽淮北平原地区农村居民点用地面积呈现增加趋势,共增加面积33 17995 hm2,年均动态度为083%,扩展速度较快,各市农村居民点用地扩展程度不一,区域差异明显.