半横向排烟下隧道火灾烟气控制效果试验研究

为了研究隧道火灾半横向排烟对烟气排放效果的影响参数,同时为半横向通风排烟下隧道火灾烟气蔓延情况的系统性研究提供试验数据支持,建立缩尺比例为1:10的水平模型隧道开展火灾试验,并对火灾半横向排烟时排烟阀和排烟道内的烟气流动进行理论分析.结果表明,水平公路隧道半横向排烟情况下,理论分析得出的排烟阀处烟气流速与模型试验结果基...     

Using local knowledge to model asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay for environmental services

This paper describes an approach to account for asymmetric preference formation in discrete choice models used for environmental valuation. The paper draws on data from a case study on preferences for environmental change resulting from a hypothetical rural development and conservation programme in Indonesia. Local knowledge on the current state of the environment was used to define an individual-specific status quo that consistently frames changes in a range of environmental services as gains or losses matching the perceptions of the local population living in the vicinity of a National Park. I estimated choice models that included separate parameters for increases and decreases in attribute levels for the environmental services and derived the indicators of local willingness to pay (WTP) corresponding to the bidirectional changes relative to the individual-specific status quo option. I found clear evidence of an asymmetric response to increase and decrease in attribute levels relative to the status quo. Ignoring asymmetric preference formation can therefore result in biased estimates of WTP indicators and welfare measures of change in cases where the outcomes of environmental programmes can plausibly result in both an increase and a decrease relative to a reference option. Compared to a symmetrical modelling approach, the combination of simultaneously accounting for asymmetric preference formation and preference heterogeneity in the choice model yielded additional insights that may be used to inform the development of local strategies towards biodiversity conservation.     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

Field-scale colloid migration experiments in a granite fracture

An understanding of particle migration in fractured rock, required to assess the potential for colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides, can best be evaluated when the results of laboratory experiments are demonstrated in the field. Field-scale migration experiments with silica colloids were carried out at AECL's Underground Research Laboratory (URL), located in southern Manitoba, to develop the methodology for large-scale migration experiments and to determine whether colloid transport is possible over distances up to 17 m. In addition, these experiments were designed to evaluate the effects of flow rate and flow path geometry, and to determine whether colloid tracers could be used to provide additional information on subsurface transport to that provided by conservative tracers alone. The colloid migration studies were carried out as part of AECL's Transport Properties in Highly Fractured Rock Experiment, the objective of which was to develop and demonstrate methods for evaluating the solute transport characteristics of zones of highly fractured rock. The experiments were carried out within fracture zone 2 as two-well recirculating, two-well non-recirculating, and convergent flow tests, using injection rates of 5 and 10 1 min⁻¹. Silica colloids with a 20 nm size were used because they are potentially mobile due to their stability, small size and negative surface charge. The shapes of elution profiles for colloids and conservative tracers were similar, demonstrating that colloids can migrate over distances of 17 m. The local region of drawdown towards the URL shaft affected colloid migration and, to a lesser extent, conservative tracer migration within the flow field established by the two-well tracer tests. These results indicate that stable colloids, with sizes as small as 20 nm, have different migration properties from dissolved conservative tracers. - 1997 Atomic Energy of Canada.     

Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments

The CANDY model has been qualitatively assessed for simulating long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon and tested against different long-term experiments representing various land uses and geographical sites, but never before against conditions of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Our goal was to simulate long-term trends in soil organic carbon for the long-term experiments of Barybino (Moscow region, Russia), Grakov (Kharkow region, Ukraine) and Yachenka (Minsk region, Belarus) representing the predominant arable soil types, climate conditions and typical management strategies for the investigated arable areas. The fit of modelled results to the observed data was evaluated to assess the suitability of the model for further applications in the FSU. The crop parameters of the CANDY model had to be adapted to the low yields observed under the Russian site conditions resulting in a higher sensitivity to crop-derived carbon input as a function of yield. The results show that the approach of treating the organic carbon situated in micro pores as inert, is an applicable solution for simulating soil carbon dynamics under Russian conditions. This evaluation of CANDY, against long-term experiments from Russia, gives confidence for its wider application in this region.     

A laboratory study of auctions for reducing non-point source pollution

Non-point source pollution, such as nutrient runoff to waterways from agricultural production, is an environmental problem that typically involves asymmetric information. Land use changes to reduce pollution incur opportunity costs that are privately known to landholders, but these changes provide environmental benefits that may be more accurately estimated by regulators. This paper reports a testbed laboratory experiment in which landholder/sellers in sealed-offer auctions compete to obtain part of a fixed budget allocated by the regulator to subsidize abatement. In one treatment the regulator reveals to landholders the environmental benefits estimated for their projects, and in another treatment the regulator conceals the potential projects’ “environmental quality.” The results show that sellers’ offers misrepresent their costs more for high-quality projects when quality is revealed, so total abatement is lower and seller profits are higher when landholders know their projects’ environmental benefits. This suggests that concealing this information may improve regulatory efficiency.     

Modified Weibull multi-state models for the analysis of animal carcinogenicity data

The Peto test is the standard method of analysis used in carcinogenicity studies to compare tumor incidence in groups of animals. It assumes that tumors are either instantly fatal or have no effect on mortality and requires a judgement of the lethality of each tumor. To avoid this requirement, parametric multi-state models have been proposed. In addition these allow estimation of tumor onset and mortality rates. This paper considers two such models and presents a modification. It is shown that the modified models provide a better fit to carcinogenicity data and simulated data are used to show that the modified models provide a modest increase in test power relative to the Peto test.     

Paradoxical preferences when options are identical

Normative models of choice predict no preference when unequally priced options of identical quality are temporarily offered for the same low price, yet several studies using nonhuman subjects have found a preference in this context. Paradoxically, subjects have preferred the stimulus associated with typically higher acquisition cost. Here, preference tests were conducted for gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis) choosing between temporarily identical options, which were color coded to represent typical conditions. During no-choice trials, subjects were offered either a cheap or an expensive food reward, by positioning the reward either 1.9 or 60 cm into a tunnel. During intermittent free-choice trials, subjects chose between color-coded but otherwise identical options (same reward, both cheap). Jays preferred the stimulus associated with lower cost, unlike subjects in previous studies. To reconcile these conflicting findings, we model choice as a trade-off between state and predation. We explore how alternative mechanisms of valuation may lead to preference in either direction (i.e., for greater workload vs lower predation risk). Our models accommodate observed paradoxical preferences in both directions.     

PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES OF BATCH-EXTRACT EXPERIMENTS USING WATER FROM A COAL MINE1

ABSTRACT: The ability of batch-extraction experiments to predict postmining ground water quality was evaluated. As a basis for evaluation, mineralogical and water quality data were used to identify the geochemical reactions that controlled the major-ion chemistry in batch-extraction experiments. The experiments used water and spoil material collected from a surface-coal mine in the Powder River basin of northeast Wyoming. The batch-extraction experiments consisted of a 2:1 solid:liquid ratio of ground water and spoil material (by weight). The chemical composition of the resulting batch-extracts was determined after a contact time of 24 hours. Thermodynamically-favorable reactions included calcite precipitation, gypsum dissolution, and formation of kaolinite as a result of orthoclase feldspar hydrolysis. Three reaction models were consistent with the therinodynanuc and mineralogic data. In general, the extracts had smaller major-ion concentrations than did the water samples collected from the spoil aquifer. Correction ratios were calculated from these experiments and could be used in combination with additional batch-extractions at existing or future lease areas to predict the quality of the ground water after mining.     

Transaction costs,communication and spatial coordination in Payment for Ecosystem Services Schemes

Agricultural producer participation and spatial coordination of land use decisions are key components for enhancing the effective delivery of ecosystem services from private land. However, inducing participation in Payment for Ecosystem Services schemes for coordinating land management choices is challenging from a policy design perspective owing to transaction costs associated with participation. This paper employs a laboratory experiment to investigate the impact of such costs on participation and land use in the context of an Agglomeration Bonus (AB) scheme. The AB creates a coordination game with multiple Nash equilibria related to alternative spatially-coordinated land use patterns. The experiment varies transaction costs between two levels (high and low), which affects the risks and payoffs of coordinating on the different equilibria. Additionally, an option to communicate is implemented between neighbors arranged on a local network to facilitate spatial coordination. Results indicate a significant difference in participation and performance under high and low transaction costs, with lower uptake and performance when transaction costs are high. These effects are, however, impacted by transaction costs faced in the past. Communication improves both AB participation rates and performance with the effect being greater for participants facing high transaction costs.