An Index of Risk as a Measure of Biodiversity Conservation Achieved through Land Reform

Abstract:  We measured the net progress of land reform in achieving a national policy goal for biodiversity conservation in the context of ongoing clearing of native vegetation and additions of land to a highly nonrepresentative (residual) reserve network, interior South Island, New Zealand. We used systematic conservation-planning approaches to develop a spatially explicit index of risk of biodiversity loss (RBL). The index incorporated information from national data sets that describe New Zealand's remaining indigenous land cover, legal protection, and land environments and modeled risk to biodiversity on the basis of stated assumptions about the effects of past habitat loss and legal protection. The index identified irreplaceable and vulnerable native habitats in lowland environments as the most at risk of biodiversity loss, and risk was correlated with the density of threatened plant records. To measure achievement, we used changes in the index that reflected gains made and opportunity costs incurred by legal protection and privatization. Application of the index to measure the difference made by land reform showed it had caused a net increase in the risk of biodiversity loss because most land vulnerable to habitat modification and rich in threatened plant species was privatized and land at least risk of biodiversity loss was protected. The application revealed that new high-elevation reserves did little to mitigate biodiversity decline, that privatization of low-elevation land further jeopardized the most vulnerable biodiversity in lowland native habitats, and that outcomes of land reform for biodiversity deteriorated over time. Further development of robust achievement measures is needed to encourage more accountable biodiversity conservation decisions.     

Sex differences in survival costs of reproduction in a promiscuous primate

In sexually promiscuous mammals, female reproductive effort is mainly expressed through gestation, lactation, and maternal care, whereas male reproductive effort is mainly manifested as mating effort. In this study, we investigated whether reproduction has significant survival costs for a seasonally breeding, sexually promiscuous species, the rhesus macaque, and whether these costs occur at different times of the year for females and males, namely in the birth and the mating season, respectively. The study was conducted with the rhesus macaque population on Cayo Santiago, Puerto Rico. Data on 7,402 births and 922 deaths over a 45-year period were analyzed. Births were concentrated between November and April, while conceptions occurred between May and October. As predicted, female mortality probability peaked in the birth season whereas male mortality probability peaked in the mating season. Furthermore, as the onset of the birth season gradually shifted over the years in relation to climatic changes, there was a concomitant shift in the seasonal peaks of male and female mortality. Taken together, our findings provide the first evidence of sex differences in the survival costs of reproduction in nonhuman primates and suggest that reproduction has significant fitness costs even in environments with abundant food and absence of predation.     

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Climate change models for California's Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition from fossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in forest understory fuel loads. Higher understory plant biomass contributes to fuel connectivity and may increase future fire size and severity in the Sierra Nevada. The objective of this research was to develop and test a model to determine how changing precipitation and nitrogen deposition levels affect shrub and herb biomass production, and to determine how often prescribed fire would be needed to counter increasing fuel loads. Model outputs indicate that under an increasing precipitation scenario significant increases in shrub and herb biomass occur that can be counteracted by decreasing the fire return interval to 10 years. Under a scenario with greater inter-annual variability in precipitation and increased nitrogen deposition, implementing fire treatments at an interval equivalent to the historical range of 15–30 years maintains understory vegetation fuel loads at levels comparable to the control.     

A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution.     

Geographic patterns of natal dispersal in barn swallows <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hirundo rustica</Emphasis> from Denmark and Spain

Dispersal is an important factor that determines the degree of gene flow and, hence, the degree of differentiation among populations. Using two long-term datasets on natal philopatry and short-distance dispersal in barn swallows Hirundo rustica from Denmark and Spain, we evaluated the fitness costs and benefits and test a number of predictions about the functional significance of dispersal. The proportion of philopatric individuals was more than six times larger in Spain than in Denmark, with a higher rate of philopatry in males than in females. Dispersal propensity decreased in both populations during the course of the study. Males from the more philopatric Spanish population lived longer when philopatric rather than dispersing while that was not the case for either sex of the less philopatric Danish population. There were large differences in dispersal propensity among cohorts and breeding sites, suggesting that sites differed in their suitability as sites for immigrants. We found no evidence consistent with the mate competition hypothesis suggesting that males in better condition or with larger condition-dependent secondary sexual characters were more likely to be philopatric. These findings suggest that there is a high degree of intraspecific variation in dispersal propensity between populations, probably relating to local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry and dispersal.     

全球变暖环境下基于金属媒介的气候敏感性研究：对一种典型两栖动物的早期和潜在影响

尽管有很多复杂的模型预测了未来温度对变温动物的影响,广泛分布的亚致命性污染物对变温动物的热应激反应产生的影响却少有模型提及。由不断上升的温度所带来更高的代谢率可以让变温动物获利地加快代谢与发育,但在长期亚致命性污染物的存在下,因清除或解毒而导致的对生存资源的额外需求很可能使得生物难以跟上温度上升的步伐,即毒物诱导的气候敏感性假说。在以自然湖水为背景的室外生物鉴定中,我们调查了一种模式变温动物在6个不同浓度的镉、铜和铅混合物以及3个热动态下(环境温度,高于环境温度1.5摄氏度以及高于环境温度2.5摄氏度)的日周期性温度变化。金属浓度在大约10倍生物可利用性慢性标准单位 (BCCU,慢性标准浓度的生物可利用性比例总和)之下时,升温对于寇普氏树蛙(Hyla chrysoscelis)没有显著作用。在高于10倍BCCU以及高于环境温度1.5摄氏度的处理条件下,生长受到促进。相反地,在28倍BCCU以及升温2.5摄氏度的条件下,不仅生长情况收到抑制,变态后20 d未成年树蛙的身体状况指标相比于背景环境(环境温度下的湖水)中的未成年树蛙也要低34%。这些发现认为毒物诱导的气候敏感性是通过对青少年阶段的生物产生长期潜在的影响而实现的。在22世纪,即使在最保守的全球变暖预测模型下,亚致命性污染物依然会加剧变温动物所遭受的来自升温的影响。
精选自Tyler A. Hallman, Marjorie L. Brooks. Metals-mediated climate susceptibility in a warming world: larval and latent effects on a model amphibian. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1872–1882, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3337
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3337/full
     

基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.