土地供给、房价与中国人口半城镇化

近十多年来,中国房价快速上涨,人口半城镇化率也随之迅速上升。针对这一现象,本文首次将土地供给、房价与人口半城镇化置于同一框架下进行系统分析,采用两阶段最小二乘法,以土地出让面积作为房价的工具变量,有效克服模型的内生性,从理论和实证两个方面研究了房价上涨对人口半城镇化的影响。结果发现:土地供给减少导致房价上涨,进而推升了人口半城镇化率,抑制了农村转移人口市民化。房价每上涨一个百分点,人口半城镇化率大约上升0.189 4个百分点。在未考虑内生性的情况下,房价对人口半城镇化的影响严重被低估。而2003年后土地供给政策收紧且向中西部地区偏移是导致东部房价上涨进而推升人口半城镇化率的重要根源。另外,还发现对外开放程度提高以及人力资本积累均有利于降低人口半城镇化率,相反,财政负担能力和户籍制度改革则产生了不利影响。因此,为了降低人口半城镇化率,有序促进农村转移人口市民化,提出如下三点政策建议:(1)调整土地供给政策,并且健全住房供应体系,防止房价上涨过快。为此,需要增加东部地区以及大城市的土地供给,使土地供给与人口流动方向以及经济发展需求相匹配,同时增加廉租房和保障房的供应。(2)大力发展工业、服务业,并提高对外开放程度,以创造更多就业机会,增加居民收入,进而促进地区人口城镇化。(3)深化户籍制度,切实放宽农村转移人口的落户条件,同时还需要深化财政制度改革,增加地方公共服务并努力促进公共服务均等化。     

Commodity booms and their impacts on the Western Australian economy: The iron ore case

Western Australia is a resource-rich province. Since the 1890s, resources booms have played a key role in the development of the state's economy. In the last few years, Western Australia's resources industry has continued to enjoy exceptional conditions created by strong international demand for commodities. This paper aims to examine the likely impact of this commodity boom in the iron ore sector on the Western Australian economy, using a general equilibrium approach. The modeling results indicate that the Western Australian economy will benefit from the expansion in iron ore exports and investment in terms of rising consumption and employment, although at the industry level there will be losers as well as winners.     

Economic Feasibility Study for Phosphorus Recovery Processes

Phosphorus recovery from wastewater has become a necessity for sustainable development because phosphorus is a non-renewable essential resource, and its discharge into the environment causes serious negative impacts. There are no economic incentives for the implementation of phosphorus recovery technologies because the selling price of rock phosphate is lower than phosphorus recovered from sewage. The methodologies used to determine the feasibility of such projects are usually focused on internal costs without considering environmental externalities. This article shows a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of wastewater phosphorus recovery projects that takes into account internal and external impacts. The shadow price of phosphorus is estimated using the directional distance function to measure the environmental benefits obtained by preventing the discharge of phosphorus into the environment. The economic feasibility analysis taking into account the environmental benefits shows that the phosphorus recovery is viable not only from sustainable development but also from an economic point of view.     

Environmental regulation, productive efficiency and cost of pollution abatement: a case study of the sugar industry in India

In this paper the input distance function is estimated for the Indian Sugar industry under alternative assumptions of weak and strong disposability of bad outputs. The estimated distance function is used to make the estimates of environmental efficiency, Malmquist productivity index and shadow prices of pollutants. The technical efficiency measure estimated under the assumption of weak disposability of bad outputs is utilized to test the Porter hypothesis. Marginal costs of pollution abatement functions are estimated for different pollutants of water. Pollutant specific taxes are computed using the tax-standards method.     

Evaluating a small deposit next to an economically viable gold mine in West Africa from the points of view of the mining company,the government and the local community

This paper addresses the question of evaluating how much the different stakeholders stand to gain from a mining project. By carefully analysing the breakdown of the cash-flows generated, we were able to estimate the amounts received by the local community and by the national community (outside the mining area), the taxes and royalties received by the government and the profits made by the mining company. A real options framework was used to take account of the inherent uncertainty on the commodity price and the reserves, and the operating flexibility (that is, the possibility for the company to stop mining if the commodity price drops and/or the reserves prove to be lower than that had been envisaged). A synthetic case-study of a gold mine in West Africa was used to illustrate how this procedure could be applied in practice. By using the real option framework we were able to envisage scenarios for developing an extension to a deposit as a function of future values of the commodity price. The procedure proposed should provide governments and NGOs with more objective data for making policy decisions.     

Fuel prices and new vehicle fuel economy—Comparing the United States and Western Europe

Several recent papers have documented an effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the United States. This paper estimates the effect of fuel prices on average new vehicle fuel economy for the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to control for policies, consumer preferences, and other potentially confounding factors. We find fuel prices to have a statistically significant effect on average new vehicle fuel economy in Europe. The effect estimated for Europe is much smaller than comparable estimates for the United States.     

土地供应计划对房价的传导机制研究

论文在借鉴四象限模型的基础上从理论上剖析了土地供应计划对房价的传导机制,并通过构建住房市场的存量-流量模型,利用湖南省2010-2013年14个市（州）的市本级面板数据,实证检验了土地供应计划对房价的传导机制。研究结果表明：土地供应计划的实施影响开发商预期,预期效应引致开发商的投机行为,进而对房价产生显著负影响,保障性住房用地占住宅用地的比例及供地计划实施率对房价产生显著负影响且影响强度不同,土地供应计划供地结构对房价的贡献大于计划实施率,该结论可为相关部门制定科学可行的供地计划提供重要决策参考。从单个因素分析,开发商的预期效应对房价波动的影响大于消费者预期效应对房价的影响;综合各需求面和供给面的因素分析,需求面因素对房价的影响程度大于供给面因素对房价的影响程度;上一期住房存量的增加进一步推动了房价的上涨。     

A study of the relationship between regional ferrous scrap prices in the USA, 1958–2004

This paper discusses univariate and mulitvariate methods used to deal with seasonal data with special emphasis on periodic models. These models are examined within the context of three regional U.S. ferrous scrap prices. All these variables can be described as being periodically integrated. The periodic models identified will be of use in assessing the future profitability of electric arc steel making. These scrap prices are shown to be periodically cointegrated in three of the four quarters with rapid speeds of adjustment to these long run equilibria. The cointegration relations have implications for the location of minimills.     

A mineral commodity life-cycle?: Relationships between production,price and economic resources

The production, price and economic resources profiles of a number of mineral commodities are examined and consideration is given to the theory that such profiles can be related to one another within the framework of a life-cycle model of development. While the behaviour of some of the commodities examined appears to lend support to the theory, that of others reveals fundamental problems with its underlying assumptions. It is concluded that, while the demand for a mineral commodity in specific uses may indeed manifest cyclical tendencies, as a general behavioural theory and as a basis for resource estimation the life-cycle model applied to minerals is of little value.     

JZL自动输送检针器的研制

检针器是用来检测藏匿在布制玩具、服装、被子、鞋帽等物品内的金属锐利物 ,是生产厂家和商检部门的必备检测仪器 ,它的灵敏度的高低 ,直接关系到产品的质量和使用者尤其是儿童使用者的安全。笔者讨论了如何通过改进检针器的磁路结构和放大电路 ,提高检针器的灵敏度 ;同时分析研究了各种干扰的来源 ;给出了消除相应干扰的种种措施