基于ArcIMS的旅游安全管理系统

结合旅游业的特点,即综合性、敏感性、涉外性或国际性,提出旅游安全管理系统应该包括:灾前的防范系统、灾时的抗灾系统以及灾后的评估善后系统3大部分的设计思路。将相应的旅游重大危险源监控系统的功能定为:以行政监察、社会监督、行业自律和应急救援体系为主的宏观管理系统。阐述了Web GIS的优点并推荐了一种构建Web GIS的新技术———ArcIMS,利用ArcIMS的系统构建的旅游安全管理系统具有功能健全、管理方便、系统成熟和安全可靠的诸多优点;同时整个系统的构建相对于其他Web GIS系统的开发而言,技术难度比较低、开发速度比较快,而且系统运行相对稳定,减轻了系统维护的负担。最后,结合旅游安全信息流的特点,具体阐述了运用ArcIMS作为旅游安全管理系统的平台的合理性和可行性。     

森工企业伐木作业事故成因分析与预防措施

以森工企业伐木作业三起事故为案例,对造成事故的原因进行了分析,根据事故成因提出了相对应的事故预防措施.     

基于GIS的长江中下游地区洪灾风险分区及评价

国内外近几年的发展表明,在所有可能避免和减轻自然灾害的措施中,最简单有效的方法就是通过在科学研究基础上进行风险区划,将自然灾害管理提高到风险管理的水平.在长江流域数字化地图的基础上,选取不同重复期(20,50,100年),及包括1870年历史洪水和1931,1935,1954,1991,1995,1996,1998,1999和2002年共10次洪水,借助Arcview地理信息系统的空间分析和叠加功能,对长江中下游地区的洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价.首先参考洪水灾害淹没图和相关历史文献记录资料,构建10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图;其次对这10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图进行叠加,得到长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评价图.分析表明:长江中下游地区洪水风险的分布是有规律的,而且具有明显的地理意义.有4个明显的高危风险区,分别是洞庭湖、鄱阳湖两湖平原的湖滨地区和公安以下的长江中游河段的沿江一带,尤其是荆江河段以及两江相夹地势低洼的江汉平原;沿高危风险区外侧为高风险地区,重点在汉江下游、资、沅、澧水、清江流域、皖沿江地区以及太湖流域的部分地区;沿长江于高危风险和高风险地区两侧分别为风险较小地区;其他地区对于洪水灾害而言则为安全地区.评价结果与长江中下游的实际情况基本吻合.     

Using consequence analysis on some chlorine operation hazards and their possible effects on neighborhoods in central Taiwan

The applications of chlorine have been broadly used in many industrial products, such as bleaching agents, synthetic rubbers, plastics, disinfectants, iron chlorides, fire refractory materials, insecticides, and anti-freezers, etc. According to the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA), more than 30 thousand tons were used in the year 2000. In addition, there were more than 12 reported incidents from 2000 to 2003—mostly on using chlorine as disinfectants (five) and as process agents (four).

This study investigated 15 chlorine operation plants in central Taiwan. These chlorine usages included bleaching agents, disinfectants, iron chloride, synthesizing rubber plastics, and others. Thirteen plants were located in the industrial parks and two were in or near residential zones. The consequence analysis were used three different methods to analyze the worst-case scenarios (WCSs) and alternative release case scenarios (ACSs) in order to compare impact zones for applying various active and passive mitigation systems, such as confined space, scrubber, water-spray, and so no. For two plants in or near residential zones, multi-layers mitigation systems and operation limits should be implemented in order to enforce more stringent protection measures. However, there was no specific regulation for chlorine plants operated at different locations, such as industrial parks or residential zones. In order to reduce chemical accidents and their impacts on public safety, our results suggest that source mitigation/management and warning systems should be adopted simultaneously.     

红外和热分析联用在化工产品研究中的应用

运用实例论述了红外光谱分析与热分析联用在化工产品的产品开发和检测方面的应用。     

Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

Life cycle energy impacts of automotive liftgate inner

This paper compares the life cycle energy use of a cast-aluminum, rear liftgate inner and a conventional, stamped steel liftgate inner used in a minivan. Using the best available aggregate life cycle inventory data and a simple spreadsheet-level analysis, energy comparisons were made at both the single-vehicle and vehicle-fleet levels. Since the product manufacture and use are distributed over long periods of time that, in a fleet, are not simple linear combinations of single product life cycles. Thus, it is all the products in use over a period of time, rather than a single product, that are more appropriate for the life cycle analysis. Using a set of consistent data, analyses also examine sensitivity to the level of analysis and the assumptions to determine the most favorable materials with respect to life cycle energy benefits.As expected, life cycle energy impacts of aluminum are lower than steel at a single-vehicle level – energy savings are determined to be 1.8 GJ/vehicle. Most energy savings occur at the vehicle operation phase due to improved fuel economy from lightweighting. The energy benefits are realized only very close to the average vehicle life of 14 years. With the incremental growth of the vehicle fleet, it takes longer – about 21 years – for aluminum to achieve life cycle equivalence with steel. The number of years aluminum needs to achieve equivalence with steel was found to be quite sensitive to aluminum manufacturing energy and fuel economy. As the steel industry races to compete with other materials for automotive lightweighting, a systems approach, instead of part-to-part comparison, is more appropriate in the determination of viability of aluminum substitution from an energy perspective.     

考虑应变速率影响的混凝土重力坝非线性地震响应分析

通过引入应变速率、损伤变量以及刚度退化指标等参数,建立了应变率相关的混凝土弹塑性损伤模型。运用该模型对某重力坝厂房坝段分别就率相关及率无关两种情况进行了三维非线性地震响应时程分析。深入研究了混凝土应变速率等相关特性对结构动力响应的影响。结果表明,应变速率对混凝土的力学性能有一定的影响,随着应变速率的增加,坝体结构的变形减小,主拉应力有所提高,应变能有所减小以及开裂损伤有一定的降低。所得结论对混凝土重力坝的震害研究有一定的参考价值。     

基于GIS的上海市嘉定区暴雨积涝灾害风险区划研究

根据2006-2012年上海嘉定区9个气象站点的小时降水资料,结合嘉定区的社会经济与自然地理要素,构建一个集致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体及防灾减灾能力为一体的区域暴雨积涝风险评价模型。通过GIS技术实现各指标的栅格化,并利用指数模型对各因子基于500 m×500 m栅格的基本单元进行计算,编制嘉定区的暴雨积涝灾害风险区划图,构成嘉定区五个等级的风险,分别为高、次高、中等、次低和低。区划结果表明嘉定区的暴雨积涝灾害危险性指数从中心向外围成递减的趋势,且嘉定镇、新城和工业南区相对风险较高,华亭、徐行、南航和江桥风险相对较低。经嘉定区历年暴雨积涝灾情资料、典型暴雨积涝案例和专家的验证,均表明风险区划的结果和实际灾情符合度较高,对嘉定暴雨积涝的防灾减灾具有重要的现实指导意义。