Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Fishing‐gear restrictions and biomass gains for coral reef fishes in marine protected areas

Considerable empirical evidence supports recovery of reef fish populations with fishery closures. In countries where full exclusion of people from fishing may be perceived as inequitable, fishing‐gear restrictions on nonselective and destructive gears may offer socially relevant management alternatives to build recovery of fish biomass. Even so, few researchers have statistically compared the responses of tropical reef fisheries to alternative management strategies. We tested for the effects of fishery closures and fishing gear restrictions on tropical reef fish biomass at the community and family level. We conducted 1,396 underwater surveys at 617 unique sites across a spatial hierarchy within 22 global marine ecoregions that represented 5 realms. We compared total biomass across local fish assemblages and among 20 families of reef fishes inside marine protected areas (MPAs) with different fishing restrictions: no‐take, hook‐and‐line fishing only, several fishing gears allowed, and sites open to all fishing gears. We included a further category representing remote sites, where fishing pressure is low. As expected, full fishery closures, (i.e., no‐take zones) most benefited community‐ and family‐level fish biomass in comparison with restrictions on fishing gears and openly fished sites. Although biomass responses to fishery closures were highly variable across families, some fishery targets (e.g., Carcharhinidae and Lutjanidae) responded positively to multiple restrictions on fishing gears (i.e., where gears other than hook and line were not permitted). Remoteness also positively affected the response of community‐level fish biomass and many fish families. Our findings provide strong support for the role of fishing restrictions in building recovery of fish biomass and indicate important interactions among fishing‐gear types that affect biomass of a diverse set of reef fish families.     

基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

节水灌溉措施下湘东北丘陵林-稻汇水区复合系统铅的迁移

铅通过食物链的迁移和积累对人类健康的毒害作用日益为社会所重视,而水稻是人类铅摄入的主要途径之一,因此,对稻田土壤铅的迁入途径及其过程特征的研究十分必要.为了探明湖南地区远离城镇、工矿区的丘陵稻区铅的输入、迁移、滞留机制,选择位于湘东北地域的汩罗市桃林林场的林地-山塘-稻田汇水区系统作为研究对象,在水稻大田生长期间,原位研究其大气沉降、岗地径流、山塘水、稻田水、水稻生长等过程的铅通量.结果表明：①输入系统的铅源是大气沉降,其中,在水稻生育前期通过东南季风输入的区域外源铅占90%;②山塘是大气沉降铅的主要集纳地貌单元,存留了大气沉降输入岗地和山塘总铅的66%;③林-稻汇水区系统岗地铅净留存28.8~57.7 g·hm^-2,山塘铅净留存604.3~961.9 g·hm^-2,稻田铅净留存89.6~90.9 g·hm^-2;而对照系统岗地铅净输出173.3 g·hm^-2,山塘净留存3427.6 g·hm^-2,稻田净留存87.1 g·hm^-2;④岗地和山塘对铅的截留量能够互补;⑤从岗地通过径流-山塘水过程迁移到稻田的大分子有机物能够增强稻田对铅的截留.综上所述,丘陵林-稻汇水区系统中铅的循环与大气沉降有关,系统内岗地森林类型、郁闭度、降水产流及泥沙、有机物的输出都会影响铅在系统中的迁移和分配.     

旅游发展背景下乡村适应性演化理论框架与实证

乡村转型及适应演化路径是乡村可持续发展领域重要研究内容,对实施乡村振兴战略及其多元目标的实现具有重要理论和现实意义。通过国家制度（战略）变迁关键时间节点,梳理典型案例乡村发展阶段,明确案例乡村转型适应的体制演化特征。在乡村适应性演化理论分析框架构建基础上,以体制转换明显的乡村为实证案例,结合农户调查与深度访谈数据,评估乡村适应演化下系统适应能力（结果）及农户生计响应效果,并基于归纳法和灰色关联分析,揭示乡村体制转换与微观农户生计关联的适应演化路径及机制。研究结果表明:（1）传统农业体制乡村向旅游体制转换后出现乡村经济发展和环境破坏、社会矛盾风险并存局面,农户生计适应选择对乡村转型响应呈现多样化。（2）不同适应路径农户生计恢复力存在显著差异,升级型、扩张型生计恢复力相对较高,维持型和更替型较低。（3）乡村体制转换（R₁到R_n）与农户生计适应（P₁到P₅）呈现协同且分化的演化路径,基础设施、政策扶持以及生态环境因子是乡村转型与农户生计关联适应演化的关键影响变量。     

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.     

Environmental benchmarks vs. ecological benchmarks for assessment and monitoring in Canada: Is there a difference?

Environmental benchmarks are widely used in Canadian environmental assessment as a standard against which to monitor air or water quality in response to human activities in the environment. Recent work in Canada has developed the concept of ecological benchmarks as a complement to environmental benchmarks. However, implementation of ecological benchmarks may be challenging. This paper presents an analogy between ecological benchmarks and the more commonly used environmental benchmarks, as an attempt to increase understanding and use of ecological benchmarks in resource management, assessment, and monitoring. Ecological benchmarks, and their corresponding indicators, will be challenging to identify and use. However, through the use of the principles of adaptive management, effective ecological indicators and benchmarks can be established. Although it is essential that ecological benchmarks are site-specific, the analogy and general principles outlined here are applicable to assessment and monitoring in any part of the world.     

区域生态系统适应性管理概念、理论框架及其应用研究

论述了生态系统适应性管理基本概念与生态系统适应循环,着重分析了生态系统恢复力范围、抗性、不稳定性与跨尺度影响。生态系统适应循环通常经历入侵、保持、破坏、调整四个阶段,前两个阶段的生态系统演替是可以预测的,而后两个阶段是复杂、难以预测的。文章提出了适应性区域生态系统管理的基本概念,并构建了其理论框架,并以三峡库区小江流域为例,对小江流域景观生态特征、区域生态胁迫进行了详细分析。在此基础上,提出要以水生生态安全为总目标,并围绕这一目标,进行流域各生态系统的恢复力辨识、生态系统适应性循环过程研究,从各系统恢复力属性特征出发,提出了具体的适应性管理方法与模式。     

A framework for assessment and monitoring of arthropods in a lowland tropical forest

By applying principles of adaptive management, and by using the valuable information that arthropods provide from assessment and monitoring programs, managers can identify and reduce possible impacts on biodiversity in development projects. In 1996, the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity program worked together with Shell Prospecting and Development Peru to establish an adaptive management program to protect biodiversity in a natural gas exploration project in a Peruvian rainforest. In this paper, we outlined the conceptual steps involved in establishing an assessment and monitoring program for arthropods, including setting objectives, evaluating the results and making decisions. We also present the results of the assessment using some of groups of arthropods, and summarize the steps taken to identify appropriate groups for monitoring.