鲁北工业生态系统分析

对工业生态系统进行分析可以发现提高和改进工业生态系统效率以及系统结构的潜在机会．以鲁北工业生态系统为例,采用自然生态系统网络分析方法分别从工业生态系统的链网结构、物种绝对刚度、物种对系统的影响强度及系统稳定性等4个方面进行分析．结果表明,在该工业生态系统中,中位种的比例明显偏少;氢气和SO2的绝对刚度最大;硫酸、合成氨和磷酸是系统的主导节点;合成氨的系统刚度最大。     

THE CONCEPT OF HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic landscapes are multiples or variations of fundamental hydrologic landscape units. A fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is defined on the basis of land‐surface form, geology, and climate. The basic land‐surface form of a fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is an upland separated from a lowland by an intervening steeper slope. Fundamental hydrologic landscape units have a complete hydrologic system consisting of surface runoff, ground‐water flow, and interaction with atmospheric water. By describing actual landscapes in terms of land‐surface slope, hydraulic properties of soils and geologic framework, and the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, the hydrologic system of actual landscapes can be conceptualized in a uniform way. This conceptual framework can then be the foundation for design of studies and data networks, syntheses of information on local to national scales, and comparison of process research across small study units in a variety of settings. The Crow Wing River watershed in central Minnesota is used as an example of evaluating stream discharge in the context of hydrologic landscapes. Lake‐research watersheds in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Nebraska are used as an example of using the hydrologic‐land‐scapes concept to evaluate the effect of ground water on the degree of mineralization and major‐ion chemistry of lakes that lie within ground‐water flow systems.     

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DESIGN OF STREAM CHMNEL MODIFICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The designs of stream channel naturalization, rehabilitation, and restoration projects are inherently fraught with uncertainty. Although a systematic approach to design can be described, the likelihood of success or failure of the design is unknown due to uncertainties within the design and implementation process. In this paper, a method for incorporating uncertainty in decision‐making during the design phase is presented that uses a decision analysis method known as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The approach is applied to a channel rehabilitation project in north‐central Pennsylvania. FMEA considers risk in terms of the likelihood of a component failure, the consequences of failure, and the level of difficulty required to detect failure. Ratings developed as part of the FMEA can provide justification for decision making in determining design components that require particular attention to prevent failure of the project and the appropriate compensating actions to be taken.     

Adaptive Comanagement of a Marine Protected Area Network in Fiji

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9‐year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well‐defined resource‐access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long‐term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district‐wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive‐management decision making. Co‐Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi     

Marshaling Adaptive Capacities within an Adaptive Management Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Wastewater Systems

We assess adaptive capacity and adaptive management as measures of wastewater (WW) system resiliency using data from interviews with WW system managers (hereafter managers) impacted by past storms. Results suggest the most resilient WW systems are those with high adaptive capacities that employ an adaptive management approach to make ongoing adaptation investments over time. Greater amounts of generic adaptive capacities (i.e., skilled staff and good leadership) help smooth both day‐to‐day and emergency operations and provide a foundation for adaptive management. In turn, adaptive management helps managers both build more generic adaptive capacities, and develop and employ greater amounts and diversity of specific adaptive capacities (i.e., soft and/or hard adaptations) that are especially important for enhancing and sustaining resiliency. Adaptive management also enables managers to better understand their system's vulnerabilities, how those vulnerabilities change over time, and what specific actions may reduce those vulnerabilities. Finally, our work suggests WW system resilience critically depends on the capacities of the human systems for building resilience as much as or more so than relying only on physical infrastructure resilience. Our work contributes to filling an important gap in the literature by advancing our understanding of the human dimensions of infrastructure resilience and has practical implications for advancing resilience in the WW sector.     

Analytical Solutions to Trade‐Offs between Size of Protected Areas and Land‐Use Intensity

Abstract: Land‐use change is affecting Earth's capacity to support both wild species and a growing human population. The question is how best to manage landscapes for both species conservation and economic output. If large areas are protected to conserve species richness, then the unprotected areas must be used more intensively. Likewise, low‐intensity use leaves less area protected but may allow wild species to persist in areas that are used for market purposes. This dilemma is present in policy debates on agriculture, housing, and forestry. Our goal was to develop a theoretical model to evaluate which land‐use strategy maximizes economic output while maintaining species richness. Our theoretical model extends previous analytical models by allowing land‐use intensity on unprotected land to influence species richness in protected areas. We devised general models in which species richness (with modified species‐area curves) and economic output (a Cobb–Douglas production function) are a function of land‐use intensity and the proportion of land protected. Economic output increased as land‐use intensity and extent increased, and species richness responded to increased intensity either negatively or following the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. We solved the model analytically to identify the combination of land‐use intensity and protected area that provided the maximum amount of economic output, given a target level of species richness. The land‐use strategy that maximized economic output while maintaining species richness depended jointly on the response of species richness to land‐use intensity and protection and the effect of land use outside protected areas on species richness within protected areas. Regardless of the land‐use strategy, species richness tended to respond to changing land‐use intensity and extent in a highly nonlinear fashion.     

Common procedural execution failure modes during abnormal situations

The Abnormal Situation Management^® Consortium¹ funded a study to investigate procedural execution failures during abnormal situations. The study team analyzed 20 publically available and 12 corporate confidential incident reports using the TapRoot^® methodology to identify root causes associated with procedural execution failures. The main finding from this investigation was the majority of the procedural execution failures (57%) across these 32 incident reports were associated with abnormal situations. Specific recommendations include potential information to capture from plant incident to better understand the sources of procedural execution failures and improve use of procedures in abnormal situations.     

Optimal Marking of Threatened Species to Balance Benefits of Information with Impacts of Marking

Abstract: Marking animals so that they are uniquely identifiable provides information that may assist conservation efforts. Nevertheless, some methods used to mark animals can be harmful. We used mathematical methods to assess the trade‐off between the impact of marking threatened species and the value of the information gained. We considered the case where 2 management strategies, each aiming to improve a species' survival rate, are implemented in an experimental phase. The results of the experiment were applied in a postexperimental management phase. We expressed the expected number of survivors in both phases mathematically, accounting for any mortality caused by the experiment, and determined the proportion of animals to mark to maximize this number. The optimal number of animals to mark increased with the number of individuals available for the experiment and with the number of individuals to be managed in the future. The optimal solution was to mark only 25% of the animals when there were 1000 individuals available for the experiment, the results were used to manage 2000 individuals, and marking caused mortality of 1%. Fewer animals were marked when there were fewer animals in either phase or when marking caused higher mortality. In the case of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix), the optimal proportion to mark was <1 if the mortality rate was >0.15%–1%, with the threshold depending on the number of animals in the experimental and postexperimental phases. The trade‐off between gaining more information about a species and possibly harming individuals of that species by marking them is difficult to assess subjectively. We show how to determine objectively the optimal proportion of animals to mark to enhance the management of threatened species.     

Comparative studies of the fate of atrazine‐14C and pentachlorophenol‐14C in various laboratory and outdoor soil‐plant systems

Abstract

Mass balance and fate of atrazine‐ ¹⁴C and pentachlorophenol‐ ¹⁴C (PCP‐ ¹⁴C) were studied in short‐term tests in a closed aerated laboratory soil‐plant system, using two concentrations in soil and two plant species, as well as under outdoor conditions for one vegetation period. In the laboratory, for both pesticides bioaccu‐mulation factors of radiocarbon taken up by the roots into plants were low. They were higher for lower (1 ppm) than for higher soil concentrations (6 ppm for atra‐zine, 4 ppm for pentachlorophenol) and varied with the plant species. Mineralization to ¹⁴CO₂ in soil was negatively related to soil concentration only for PCP‐ ¹⁴C. Conversion rates in soil including the formation of soil‐bound residues were higher for the lower concentrations of both pesticides than for the higher ones; conversion rates in plants were species‐dependent. In 14 terms of CO₂ formation and of conversion rates, PCP was less persistent in soil than was atrazine. For both pesticides, laboratory data on conversion and mineralization gave a rough prediction of their persistence in soil under long‐term outdoor conditions, whereas bio‐accumulation factors in plants under long‐term outdoor conditions could not be predicted by short‐term laboratory experiments.     

Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.