Prognosis of the impact of global climate change on zonal ecosystems of the Volga River Basin

On the basis of the GISS prognostic climatic model, landscape-ecological scenarios concerning the immediate future of the region are considered in the forms of cartographic and analytical models. These scenarios predict a growing thermoarid bioclimatic trend accompanied by a general northward displacement of zonal boundaries, with corresponding acceleration of the biological cycle and increase in the productivity of boreal forests.     

An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta,Philippines

An exploratory study is conducted to assess the resilience of Infanta through an analysis of its ecosystems from ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional perspectives. Recognizing the strong interdependencies of ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional dimensions in ecosystems and that community-level perceptions can shape adaptation actions, a survey is conducted in 36 village councils in Infanta, Quezon, Philippines utilizing a questionnaire covering 5 dimensions, 25 parameters and 125 measures selected based on the local context of Infanta to gain an understanding of the level of resilience in mountain, riverine, urban, agricultural plain, estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Results show that overall resilience levels of ecosystems lie between 3.08 (medium resilience) and 3.26 (high resilience) on a scale of 1–5. However, resilience scores in the five dimensions vary from 2.57 (low resilience) to 3.51 (high resilience). On the whole, overall resilience levels in the 36 villages exhibit high levels in the social dimension and low levels in the economic dimension. By assessing the resilience of ecosystems as attempted in this study, a baseline is determined where entry points for adaptation actions that are responsive to prevailing ecosystem conditions can be identified, positive and negative factors addressed and gaps and opportunities acted upon to enhance the resilience of Infanta's ecosystems.     

CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.     

Classification of Climate‐Change‐Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity

Abstract: Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate‐change‐induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate‐change‐related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate‐change‐induced stresses.     

Major accident prevention and management of information systems security in technology-based work processes

The oil and gas industry in Norway has taken into use and is developing ICT-based work processes to improve efficiency and safety. Protection of information resources and technology; ensuring safe and secure processing of information; and ensuring reliable and safe flow of information is essential for both production and protection in such ICT-intensive organizations. Information systems security (IS) thus matters for major accident prevention. In the ICT-based work processes in the oil and gas industry new challenges for IS security occur related to: increased need for availability and integrity of information; merge of process safety systems and ICT-systems; manual use of information resources; and flow of information between distributed actors. These challenges imply new requirements for IS management: More focus on availability and integrity as protection principles; resilience-based approaches as a supplement to formal management approaches; validation of information flows; and integration of loss prevention approaches.     

All Fish for China?

In this paper we examine the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the level of fish intake in China in comparison with the rest of the world. We also analyse the origin and destination of China’s seafood products in order to understand the main patterns during the last decades. The results show that in the 1961–2011 period the rate of growth of the GDP in China doubled that of other developing regions, while the daily fish intake of China increased fourfold, making China the largest fish consumer in the world. Given the size and scale of China’s role in production, consumption, and global transformation of seafood markets, China is shaping a new era of industrialization in the history of the fishing industry.     

The Lost Creek Fire: managing social relations under disaster conditions

This paper examines some of the social processes associated with disaster conditions. Utilising an asset‐based perspective of community capacity, it focuses on four types of normative systems to interpret the ability of communities to manage disasters through market‐, bureaucratic‐, associative‐, and communal‐based norms. Drawing on experience of a wildfire in the Crowsnest Pass region of southwest Alberta, Canada, in 2003, the tensions and compatibilities among these normative systems are evaluated through interviews with 30 community leaders. The results confirm the contributions of all types of social capital to resiliency, the necessity for rapid use of place‐based knowledge, and the importance of communication among all types and levels of agents. In addition, they point to the value of identifying and managing potential conflicts among the normative systems as a means to maximising their contributions. The integration of local networks and groups into the more general disaster response minimised the impacts on health and property.     

A Cross-National Analysis of How Economic Inequality Predicts Biodiversity Loss

Abstract:  We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.     

Comparison of Outcomes of Permanently Closed and Periodically Harvested Coral Reef Reserves

Abstract: In many areas of the developing world, the establishment of permanent marine reserves is inhibited by cultural norms or socioeconomic pressures. Community conserved areas that are periodically harvested are increasingly being implemented as fisheries management tools, but few researchers have empirically compared them with permanently closed reserves. We used a hierarchal control‐impact experimental design to compare the abundance and biomass of reef fishes, invertebrates, and substrate composition in periodically harvested and permanent reserves and in openly fished (control sites) of the South Pacific island country of Vanuatu. Fished species had significantly higher biomass in periodically harvested reserves than in adjacent openly fished areas. We did not detect differences in substratum composition between permanent reserves and openly fished areas or between permanent reserves and periodically harvested reserves. Giant clams (tridacnids) and top shells (Trochus niloticus) were vulnerable to periodic harvest, and we suggest that for adequate management of these species, periodically harvested community conservation areas be used in conjunction with other management strategies. Periodic harvest within reserves is an example of adaptive and flexible management that may meet conservation goals and that is suited to the social, economic, and cultural contexts of many coastal communities in the developing world.     

Operational sex ratio versus gender density as determinants of copulation duration in the walnut fly,Rhagoletis juglandis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

In laboratory and field studies of the walnut fly, Rhagoletis juglandis Cresson (Diptera: Tephritidae), we assessed the effect of operational sex ratio on copulation duration and partitioned the sex ratio effect into component effects due to male density and female density. In our first laboratory experiment, results were clearly consistent with theoretical expectation: increases in male density were associated with significant increases in copulation duration while increases in female density were associated with significant decreases in copulation duration. These component effects yielded a striking composite effect of operational sex ratio (OSR) on copulation duration in which male-biased ratios were associated with low frequencies of short copulations and female-biased ratios were associated with high frequencies of short copulations. Consistent with a priori expectations concerning costs of territorial behavior, the effect of male density on copulation duration was stronger than that of female density. There was no significant interaction between the effects of gender density on copulation duration: each gender density contributed additively to the composite OSR effect on copulation duration. In contrast to the effect of OSR, overall density had little effect. Field data corroborated these findings fully and showed additionally that OSR in the vicinity of fruit tended in nature to be male-biased. In a second laboratory experiment, we measured copulation duration for individuals exposed alternately to male-biased and female-biased ratios. Individual flies consistently copulated for longer in male-biased environments than in female-biased ones. We propose that this plasticity permits individuals to track changes in local sex ratio over space and time and respond appropriately. Received: 15 November 1995/Accepted after revision: 27 April 1996