Using single- and multi-target regression trees and ensembles to model a compound index of vegetation condition

An important consideration in conservation and biodiversity planning is an appreciation of the condition or integrity of ecosystems. In this study, we have applied various machine learning methods to the problem of predicting the condition or quality of the remnant indigenous vegetation across an extensive area of south-eastern Australia—the state of Victoria. The field data were obtained using the ‘habitat hectares’ approach. This rapid assessment technique produces multiple scores that describe the condition of various attributes of the vegetation at a given site. Multiple sites were assessed and subsequently circumscribed with GIS and remote-sensed data.     

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.     

Private Property Rights and Selective Private Forest Conservation: Could a Nordic Hybrid Policy Address a United States Problem?

Political and legal conflicts between the need for targeted private forest conservation and the continued assurance of private property rights in the U.S. presents a seemingly intractable resource management problem. Scandinavian use of habitat protection areas on private forests offers an additional tool that may be suitable for solving the historical and on-going tension found within U.S. efforts to reconcile desires to maintain lands in a forested condition while also respecting private property rights. This article presents a comparative cross-sectional policy analysis of Sweden, Finland, and the U.S., supported with a supplemental case example from the Commonwealth of Virginia. Similarities in all three countries among forest ownership patterns, use of public subsidies, and changing attitudes towards conservation are generally encouraging. Additionally, Virginia’s current consideration and development of state-wide forest policies focused on forestland and open space conservation suggests both a need and an opportunity to systematically assess the applicability of the Nordic forest reserve approach to local private forest conservation. Future research at a high-resolution, and specifically at the state level, should focus on the social and political factors that would ultimately determine the viability of a forest reserve program.     

Evaluating Local Benefits from Conservation in Nepal’s Annapurna Conservation Area

Protected areas are integral to the global effort to conserve biodiversity, and, over the past two decades, protected area managers have begun to recognize that conservation objectives are next to impossible to achieve without considering the needs and concerns of local communities. Incentive-based programs (IBPs) have become a favored approach to protected area management, geared at fostering local stewardship by delivering benefits tied to conservation to local people. Effective IBPs require benefits to accrue to and be recognized by those experiencing the greatest consequences as a result of the protected area, and those likely to continue extractive activities if their livelihood needs are compromised. This research examines dispersal of IBP benefits, as perceived by local residents in Nepal's Annapurna Conservation Area. Results reported here are based on questionnaire interviews with 188 households conducted between September and December 2004. Results indicate that local residents primarily identify benefits from social development activities, provisions for resource extraction, and economic opportunities. Overall, benefits have been dispersed equally to households in villages on and off the main tourist route, and regardless of a household's participation in tourism. However, benefits are not effectively targeted to poorer residents, those highly dependent on natural resources, and those experiencing the most crop damage and livestock loss from protected wildlife. This article provides several suggestions for improving the delivery of conservation incentives.     

Temperature and water pressure head effects on the degradation of the diketonitrile metabolite of isoxaflutole in a loamy soil under two tillage systems

Laboratory studies were conducted to evaluate the effects of temperature and water pressure head on the degradation of the diketonitrile metabolite (DKN) of isoxaflutole during 84 d in samples collected in a loamy soil under conventional (CT) and conservation (MT) tillage systems. Soil temperature was the major factor controlling DKN degradation in the two tillage systems. The shortest half-lives (T_1/2) were measured in the seedbed samples under MT at 25 °C and −33 cm water pressure head. We found that mouldboard ploughing under CT was responsible for the spatial variability of herbicide degradation properties, whereas under MT herbicide degradation was associated to the vertical distribution of organic matter.     

Analyzing the cost effectiveness of Santiago, Chile's policy of using urban forests to improve air quality

Santiago, Chile has the distinction of having among the worst urban air pollution problems in Latin America. As part of an atmospheric pollution reduction plan, the Santiago Regional Metropolitan government defined an environmental policy goal of using urban forests to remove particulate matter less than 10 microm (PM(10)) in the Gran Santiago area. We used cost effectiveness, or the process of establishing costs and selecting least cost alternatives for obtaining a defined policy goal of PM(10) removal, to analyze this policy goal. For this study, we quantified PM(10) removal by Santiago's urban forests based on socioeconomic strata and using field and real-time pollution and climate data via a dry deposition urban forest effects model. Municipal urban forest management costs were estimated using management cost surveys and Chilean Ministry of Planning and Cooperation documents. Results indicate that managing municipal urban forests (trees, shrubs, and grass whose management is under the jurisdiction of Santiago's 36 municipalities) to remove PM(10) was a cost-effective policy for abating PM(10) based on criteria set by the World Bank. In addition, we compared the cost effectiveness of managing municipal urban forests and street trees to other control policies (e.g. alternative fuels) to abate PM(10) in Santiago and determined that municipal urban forest management efficiency was similar to these other air quality improvement measures.     

Invasion of Pinus halepensis Mill. following a wildfire in an Argentine grassland nature reserve

The Ernesto Tornquist nature reserve is a relict of native Pampas vegetation in Argentina. Alien trees were introduced to the reserve in the 1950s, mainly to "improve" the natural landscape, resulting in the arrival of a totally new life form. In 1987, a fire affected an area planted with Pinus halepensis resulting in its massive expansion. In 1999, we removed trees from 17 circular plots of 10 m diameter placed systematically within the area that was colonized after the fire. Trunks were cut 20 cm from the ground and growth rings were counted. We studied the age structure of the population in order to reconstruct the colonizing events after the fire. We found that recruitment occurred throughout this period, except in the three years after the disturbance. We suggest that this delay in recruitment might be caused by low seedling survival under water stress conditions due to low rainfall, combined with scarce vegetation cover after fire. This could have been associated with an initial reduction in propagule pressure due to the scarcity of surviving trees in the vicinity and with the fact that fire occurred after the peak of seed release, during an extremely dry summer, probably killing a great number of seeds that were already in the soil. In the following years, recruitment was probably aided by pioneer trees and later by seeds shed from established pines. Alien trees had been allowed to reach maturity due to wildfire prevention and control in the years preceding the fire and the accumulated dry matter resulted in increased fire intensity that reduced the ability of grasses to re-sprout. As a consequence, the invasion window that allowed the expansion of pines remained open for at least 12 years.     

Should Habitat Trading Be Based on Mitigation Ratios Derived from Landscape Indices? A Model-Based Analysis of Compensatory Restoration Options for the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker

Many species of conservation concern are spatially structured and require dispersal to be persistent. For such species, altering the distribution of suitable habitats on the landscape can affect population dynamics in ways that are difficult to predict from simple models. We argue that for such species, individual-based and spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) should be used to determine appropriate levels of off-site restoration to compensate for on-site loss of ecologic resources. Such approaches are necessary when interactions between biologic processes occur at different spatial scales (i.e., local [recruitment] and landscape [migration]). The sites of restoration and habitat loss may be linked to each other, but, more importantly, they may be linked to other resources in the landscape by regional biologic processes, primarily migration. The common management approach for determining appropriate levels of off-site restoration is to derive mitigation ratios based on best professional judgment or pre-existing data. Mitigation ratios assume that the ecologic benefits at the site of restoration are independent of the ecologic costs at the site of habitat loss. Using an SEPM for endangered red-cockaded woodpeckers, we show that the spatial configuration of habitat restoration can simultaneously influence both the rate of recruitment within breeding groups and the rate of migration among groups, implying that simple mitigation ratios may be inadequate.     

Ecological effects of cultivation on the machair sand dune systems of the Outer Hebrides, Scotland

The machair sand dune systems of the Outer Hebrides of Scotland are a unique habitat, which is rare within both a global and European context. Unusually, the machair habitat also represents an agricultural resource that is very important to the Hebridean people, having been subject to both grazing and cultivation throughout the historical period. Following designation as an Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) in 1988, the machairs of South Uist have been studied with the aim of understanding the links between agricultural practice and their plant community and ecosystem dynamics. This research focused primarily on the effects of cultivation practices and their role in maintaining plant species richness and community and ecosystem stability. Within two carefully selected areas, the successional plant communities of machair at different stages of recovery following ploughing and cultivation of cereals and potato patches or ‘lazy beds’ were identified at both a macro- and micro-level. Investigations of the vegetation recovery processes on turves taken from newly ploughed land indicated that the initial stages of recolonization are characterized primarily by rapid vegetative reproduction and growth, although re-vegetation by seeds is also an important factor. The implications of these findings for the long-term management of machair plant communities are discussed and in particular the need to maintain old cultivation practices such as shallow ploughing. The need for more detailed research into both seed banks and seed rain and into processes of vegetative reproduction is stressed. Nomenclature: Clapham et al. (1981) and Stace (1991, 1997) for vascular plants; Hubbard (1984) for grasses; Pankhurst & Mullin (1991) for the regional flora; Dobson (1992) for lichens; Watson (1981) for mosses and liverworts.