针对安全生产隐患的智能搜索引擎系统研究

为解决用户在现有搜索引擎上难以检索到专业和全面的安全生产隐患知识的问题,提出一种安全生产隐患数据的挖掘方法和针对安全生产隐患的智能搜索引擎系统的设计方法。结果表明:对于用户的搜索,系统能够直接反馈智能化查询结果,包括:隐患内容、隐患来源、隐患的行业,隐患场所、法规标准、事故信息等数据以及数据之间的关联关系。给出的示例和结果图表,说明了这种数据挖掘方法的有效性;对相关智能搜索引擎系统的组成、工作原理及实现方式的阐述,说明了系统设计方法的有效性,可为安全生产隐患智能搜索引擎系统的设计与开发提供参考。     

Chemometrical analysis and quality control of pot water and its sources from Athens,Greece

The present study describes a chemometrical interpretation of a large data set from pot water quality control results. Sixteen chemical and physicochemical parameters constantly checked throughout the year were involved in the classification procedure. The data originate from seventeen sampling stations (pot water sources and pot water purification stations) and were collected in the period January ‐December 1993. Mean values for two months periods were introduced to the chemometrical procedure, so finally a data set 101x16 was formed. Additionally, quality control requirements of the European Union for pot water were added to the set to form an information input matrix of 103x16 elements. Hierarchical and non‐hierarchical clustering procedures were applied in order to reveal the internal structure of the data set. Some interesting conclusions like special water quality of lake Mornos, possibility of quality monitoring with lesser number of components etc., concerning the quality and stability of the pot water sources and quality characteristics of the samples are made.     

Wildfire smoke and health impacts: A closer look at fire attributes and their marginal effects

Existing studies on the economic impact of wildfire smoke have focused on single fire events or entire seasons without considering the marginal effect of daily fire progression on downwind communities. Neither approach allows for an examination of the impact of even the most basic fire attributes, such as distance and fuel type, on air quality and health outcomes. Improved knowledge of these effects can provide important guidance for efficient wildfire management strategies. This study aims to bridge this gap using detailed information on 24 large-scale wildfires that sent smoke plumes to the Reno/Sparks area of Northern Nevada over a 4-year period. We relate the daily acreage burned by these fires to daily data on air pollutants and local hospital admissions. Using information on medical expenses, we compute the per-acre health cost of wildfires of different attributes. We find that patient counts can be causally linked to fires as far as 200–300 miles from the impact area. As expected, the marginal impact per acre burned generally diminishes with distance and for fires with lighter fuel loads. Our results also highlight the importance of allowing for temporal lags between fire occurrence and pollutant levels.     

Incorporating greenhouse gas effects to evaluate energy efficiency in China

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions without hampering economic growth is a significant issue for China. Taking into account environmental sustainability principles, this study analysed the energy efficiency of 30 regions of China for the period 2002–2007. By employing a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, this study included undesirable CO₂ and SO₂ outputs and the desirable GDP output in the model. Empirical outcomes demonstrated that the overall average technical efficiency (TE) of China is 0.843, indicating a 15.70% input inefficiency. Among three geographic areas, the east has the highest technical efficiency, with the highest ability to set up clean-burning power plants based on best technology available. Performance in the west is less good because of much inefficient technology. Finally, the study demonstrates detailed management implications of the BCG matrix. The most important contribution of this paper is a detailed demonstration of an energy performance evaluation mechanism for China. The valuable results and insights gained can be equally effectively applied to studies in other developing countries facing the same gaseous emissions.     

The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.     

基于生态过程模型和森林清查数据的森林生长量估算对比研究

利用遥感驱动的生态过程模型-Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator （BEPS）、2001-2006年国家森林资源连续清查数据（一类清查-样地尺度）和2003-2009年森林资源规划设计调查数据（二类调查-区域尺度）,分别计算江西省吉安市的森林生态系统生长量,从不同空间尺度和森林类型对3种数据源估算的森林生长量进行了分析。结果表明,样点尺度上,BEPS模型模拟的森林生长量（4.18 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）低于群落生长量（5.86 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）,与乔木层生长量（4.29 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1）基本一致,模型模拟结果与两者的拟合R2分别为0.48和0.43。区域尺度上,BEPS模型模拟、二类调查数据计算的群落及乔木层生长量分别为4.65、4.36和3.34 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1,BEPS模型估算的吉安市各县森林总生长量与二类调查数据计算的群落、乔木层生长总量拟合R2分别达0.84和0.83。一类清查数据计算结果高于二类清查数据计算结果,BEPS模型模拟森林生长量分别与基于一类清查数据计算的乔木层生长量及二类调查数据群落生长量较为一致。从研究区两种主要森林类型来看,常绿阔叶林年平均生长量高于常绿针叶林,常绿针叶林与模型估算结果差异小于常绿阔叶林。最后利用模型估算了研究区2001-2010年平均生长量,为认识研究区的森林生长空间分布差异及更新森林生物量提供支持。     

Accident data for the Semantic Web

This paper describes concerns about the documentation, dissemination and use of lessons learned from mishap investigations, impediments posed by current practices, and opportunities for improvement. Lessons are presently developed, documented and stored primarily in narrative form and relational databases, and disseminated in many forms and media, including the Internet. Current practices pose many impediments to maximized development, dissemination and use. Investigation process research and new data concepts behind the Semantic Web, exploited elsewhere, offer potential opportunities to overcome these impediments. To exploit these opportunities, formation of a working group to develop an improved Semantic Web-friendly mishap investigation lessons learning system is proposed. An example illustrating an alternative approach is described to support a reasonable expectation that an alternative lessons learning system could be developed.     

改进型灰色神经网络在火灾预测中的应用研究

为提高火灾事故的预测精度,降低火灾损失,探讨并修正传统GM(1,1)预测模型关于背景值构造的缺陷,将改进后的灰色模型同BP神经网络模型融合,提出改进型灰色神经网络火灾预测模型。依据我国1997—2009年火灾事故统计数据,分别选用改进型GM(1,1)和改进型灰色神经网络模型对1997—2007年火灾发生起数进行拟合仿真,得到2008—2009年火灾起数预测结果。结果表明:该模型在避免GM(1,1)关于背景值构造缺陷的基础上,兼具灰色系统与神经网络的优点,既体现火灾复杂的灰色系统行为,又能自适应调整学习速率,与单一GM(1,1)相比,该模型的预测结果精度更高。     

中国煤炭企业安全效率及其影响因素分析

为准确评价中国煤炭企业安全效率,基于数据包络分析(DEA),对2009年中国煤炭企业100强中的30家企业的安全整体效率(TE)、纯技术效率(PTE)和规模效率(SE)进行实证分析;在此基础上,运用Tobit模型探讨影响煤炭企业安全TE的因素。研究结果显示,煤炭企业安全投入、整体科研能力与安全效率成正相关;厂商规模、劳动生产率与安全效率成显著正相关。基于此,从4个方面给出提高煤炭企业安全效率的建议。