基于TFP的中部地区经济增长中自然资源贡献分析

运用Romer的内生经济增长模型和全要素贡献模型,对1988~2009年中部地区经济和自然资源进行面板数据分析,计算出各省自然资源要素和其他要素对经济增长的贡献值。结论显示：中部地区经济增长中自然资源生产率呈现出“能源主打,水土作衬;北煤南水,地异明显”的结构、空间特性;其他生产性要素中,资本、劳动力资源生产率对经济增长的贡献不相上下;而全要素生产率除湖北外都不及全国平均水平,中部6省的科技创新能力亟待提高。针对中部经济资源现状提出相应政策建议,认为中部地区应该在资源利用效率的提高、自主研发能力的推崇、各项人才的培养和产业优化的推动方面多做工作,推进低碳经济发展     

Landscape-climatic changes on the eastern macroslope of the Northern Urals over the past 50000 years

Landscape-climatic changes are described that took place in the second half of the Late Neopleistocene and Holocene on the eastern macroslope of the Northern Urals. On the basis of geochronological and palynological data, the composition of paleocommunities in different time sections over the past 50000 years has been reconstructed in detail. Paleoclimatic parameters calculated by the zonal-formation method are presented.     

城市化与环境污染：中国省际面板数据的实证研究

对环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说进行了扩展,选取1998～2005年中国30个省（市、自治区）的面板数据,构建了6类环境污染指标同城市化水平及控制变量间的计量模型,并运用Eviews软件进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：4类污染物同城市化水平之间存在倒U形曲线关系,另外2类污染物同城市化水平之间存在正U形曲线关系,目前中国大体上已经进入U形曲线的右半段,但由于地区发展差距的存在,各地进入曲线右半段的时间不同;控制变量的加入不仅改变了转折点出现的时间,而且改变了某些污染指标同城市化水平之间的U形曲线关系;贸易开放并不一定造成环境的恶化,“污染天堂”假说在中国不成立;产业结构变动是造成环境污染的重要因素;技术进步引致的单位GDP能耗下降能减轻环境污染压力;快速的经济增长将导致更加严重的环境污染。     

计算机网络风险防范数据仓库的研究与设计

随着全球信息化进程的推进,网络风险已经成为阻碍信息化进程的一个重要因素,网络安全问题成为公众关注的焦点.计算机网络安全事件包括病毒、木马、蠕虫、网络监听、黑客攻击、恶意软件、网页仿冒、僵尸网络等,为帮助网民更加有效地防范网络安全事件,针对网络风险防范数据管理的特点,开展了网络风险防范数据库和数据仓库的研究与设计.该研究通过收集、整理和分析一些权威网站关于各种网络安全事件的统计信息以及历年的网络安全调查报告,以SQL Server 2000作为数据库管理系统,建立了一个关于具体网络安全事件的数据库和数据仓库,其中数据仓库中存储了病毒、木马、僵尸网络、网络钓鱼等具体网络安全事件在不同月份或年份的统计信息.随着数据库中数据的不断完善和充分,可以进一步建立挖掘模型,分析这些历史数据,从而为网络安全风险防范提供基础支持.     

大数据时代的环境信息治理变革——从信息公开到公共服务

环境信息治理发展历经三个阶段:自给自足、信息公开与公共服务。随着大数据时代的来临,当前环境信息治理处于环境信息公开向环境信息公共服务的转型与变革。这次变革的核心是以公众为本位,表现为环境信息需求的公众主导,以及环境信息供给的公众参与,包括参与环境信息的供给决策、生产过程、以及公共服务质量监督与评价等全过程。当前环境信息治理变革的目标路径重点包括5个方面,即提高公众满意度、优化环境信息公开、严格环境信息质量控制、整合环境信息资源、实现多元供给。     

环境监测数据分析和监测网设计中SPSS 10.0的应用

SPSS10.0是目前功能齐全、便于应用的优秀统计软件。文章介绍了该软件在环境监测数据分析和监测网设计中的应用。文中简述了该软件的功能及优点，并通过实例，展示其在环境监测数据分析和监测网设计中的应用，这对于优化监测数据分析结果和监测网的设计均有较好的借鉴作用。     

基于遥感技术的县级区域环境质量评价模型研究

建立了一种完全基于遥感数据的县级区域生态环境状况评价模型,该模型利用支持向量机的方法对广西钦州市钦南区HJ-1星CCD数据进行分类,提取土地利用类型,同时建立了生物丰度指数、植被覆盖度指数、水资源密度指数、土壤侵蚀指数和人类活动指数5种评价指标,对这些指数加权求和得到区域生态环境状况指数,定量化评价实验区域生态环境质量.评价结果表明,该区域整体生态环境质量良好,生态环境状况为良的区域占总面积的64.105%,主要集中在钦南区的林地区域,生态环境状况为一般的区域占31.206%,主要分布在水资源丰富的区域,而生态环境状况为差的区域则占3.668%,主要集中在人类活动频繁的城区.     

含未检出值的环境监测数据集的处理方法

环境样品分析过程中经常遇到包含未检出值的数据集,这在对含有微量金属和微量有机污染物样本的分析研究中更为常见.目前处理未检出数据的方法通常是忽略或者用0、检出下限的1/2或1/3进行简单替代.然而,当未检出数据比例较高时,忽略或简单替代可能给数据表征带来较大偏差,也不利于更深入的统计分析.为改善对包含未检出数据的分析效果,目前已经建立了多种统计方法.本文系统介绍了这些方法,包括总体均值和方差估计的参数和非参数方法以及关于均值的95%置信区间上界的估计方法.此外,本文利用虚拟数据和实测数据给出了主要方法的应用实例.     

Simulation of transport and composition changes during a blocking episode over the East Atlantic and North Europe

Transport of atmospheric trace gases during a blocking event in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in August 1997 is studied. Considering the frequency of such events it is obvious that they play a significant role for climate and air chemistry and thus the atmospheric environment. The event has been selected because a unique set of composition observations carried out by the CRISTA (Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere) instrument in the UTLS was available for the period of blocking. The regional European Atmospheric Dispersion (EURAD) model system was used for a detailed analysis focusing on ozone and CFC 11 (CFCl₃, Freon) distributions and their temporal and spatial variability. The combination of the CRISTA data and a regional transport chemistry model enabled a unique analysis of transport behaviour of a blocking. This developed an Ω-structure with a deep cut-off low at the western flank of the blocking high and a trough with highly perturbed trace gas fields on the eastern side. Tropopause heights varied intensively and were bended down to rather low levels in the cut-off low and folds appearing in the eastern trough. Results of artificial tracer experiments are presented which show that polluted air from lower tropospheric levels and – in this case – lower latitudes as well as the North American continent may be lifted up to the UTLS in the anticyclonic part of the Ω-block and transported from there over large distances in streamers. Quasi-periodic variations of CFC 11 flux divergence indicate dynamical coupling of the different domains of the block.     

Advantages of Volunteer-Based Biodiversity Monitoring in Europe

Abstract:  Without robust and unbiased systems for monitoring, changes in natural systems will remain enigmatic for policy makers, leaving them without a clear idea of the consequences of any environmental policies they might adopt. Generally, biodiversity-monitoring activities are not integrated or evaluated across any large geographic region. The EuMon project conducted the first large-scale evaluation of monitoring practices in Europe through an on-line questionnaire and is reporting on the results of this survey. In September 2007 the EuMon project had documented 395 monitoring schemes for species, which represents a total annual cost of about €4 million, involving more than 46,000 persons devoting over 148,000 person-days/year to biodiversity-monitoring activities. Here we focused on the analysis of variations of monitoring practices across a set of taxonomic groups (birds, amphibians and reptiles, mammals, butterflies, plants, and other insects) and across 5 European countries (France, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, and Poland). Our results suggest that the overall sampling effort of a scheme is linked with the proportion of volunteers involved in that scheme. Because precision is a function of the number of monitored sites and the number of sites is maximized by volunteer involvement, our results do not support the common belief that volunteer-based schemes are too noisy to be informative. Just the opposite, we believe volunteer-based schemes provide relatively reliable data, with state-of-the-art survey designs or data-analysis methods, and consequently can yield unbiased results. Quality of data collected by volunteers is more likely determined by survey design, analytical methodology, and communication skills within the schemes rather than by volunteer involvement per se.