METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

四川省米易县新农村建设可持续发展SD分析——用系统观透视

县域新农村建设必然受到当地自然—社会—经济中众多因素及其复杂关系的制约.为了从长期性与整体性角度考察四川省米易县社会、经济、生态环境与新农村建设之间的相互作用关系,建立了由米易县系统动力学模型为主干,生态足迹模型和SWOT模型为支撑的米易县新农村建设可持续发展分析模型,以透视米易县新农村建设的前景,探讨规划的理论依据.     

Calibration and Verification of SWMM for Low Impact Development

The Storm Water Management Model was used to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a low impact development (LID) watershed and a watershed using traditional runoff controls. Predictions were compared to observed values. Uncalibrated simulations underpredicted weekly runoff volume and average peak flow rates from the multiple subcatchment LID watershed by over 80%; the single subcatchment traditional watershed had better predictions. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning's n for swales, and initial soil moisture deficit were sensitive parameters. After calibration, prediction of total weekly runoff volume for the LID and traditional watersheds improved to within 12 and 5% of observed values, respectively. For the validation period, predicted total weekly runoff volumes for the LID and traditional watersheds were within 6 and 2% of observed values, respectively. Water quality simulation was less successful, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients >0.5 for both calibration and validation periods were only achieved for prediction of total nitrogen export from the LID watershed. Simulation of a 100‐year, 24‐h storm resulted in a runoff coefficient of 0.46 for the LID watershed and 0.59 for the traditional watershed. Results suggest either calibration is needed to improve predictions for LID watersheds or expanded look‐up tables for Green–Ampt infiltration parameter values that account for compaction of urban soil and antecedent conditions are needed.     

PE微塑料对土壤水分入渗的影响及入渗模型适宜性评价

为探究微塑料对土壤水分入渗过程的影响,通过室内土柱模拟试验,设置5组微塑料添加处理(0,1,2,4,6g/kg),研究了不同微塑料含量对湿润锋运移和累积入渗量的影响,并进一步评价了主要入渗模型在微塑料污染土壤中的适用性.结果表明,湿润锋运移速率随着微塑料含量的增加呈现出先减小后增加的特征,当含量达到T2时(微塑料含量2...     

地下水渗流补给-内源释放耦合作用下河流水质不确定模拟

针对河流-地下水环境系统的模糊性、不精确性及随机不确定性,采用梯形模糊数描述和表征河流水文、水质及水文地质参数,构建了集成地下水渗流补给与内源释放耦合影响的一维河流水质模糊模拟模型.在此基础上,就地下水渗流补给与内源释放的可能组合,设置5种情景,分别进行水质模拟,并对计算结果进行分析、对比.实例研究表明,对地下水渗流补给与内源释放耦合作用下的河流水质衰减变化规律,梯形模糊数有较好的模拟效果.     

Modeling the e ects of constructed wetland on nonpoint source pollution control and reservoir water quality improvement

This article describes the integrated modeling approach for planning the size and the operation of constructed wetlands for maximizing retention of nonpoint source pollutant loads and reservoir water-quality improvement at a catchment scale. The experimental field-scale wetland systems (four sets, 0.88 ha each) have been in operation since 2002, where water depth was maintained at 30–50 cm and hydraulic loading rate was at 6.3–18.8 cm/day. The wetland system was found to be adequate for treating polluted stream water with stable removal e ciency even during the winter. The integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) was applied to the Seokmoon estuarine reservoir watershed and calibrated with monitoring data from constructed wetland, stream, and reservoir. The calibrated integrated modeling system estimated that constructing wetlands on 0.5% (about 114 ha) of the watershed area at the mouth of reservoir could reduce 11.61% and 13.49% of total external nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively. It also might improve the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration of the reservoir by 9.69% and 16.48%, respectively. The study suggested that about 0.1%–1.0% of the watershed area should be allocated for constructed wetland to meet specified water-quality standards for the estuarine reservoir at the polder area where land use planning is relatively less complicated.     

污染场地地下水中汞污染反应运移模拟

汞（Hg）是人们持续关注的全球环境污染物之一,其对地下水的污染严重威胁着与地下水相关的生态环境系统.汞在地下水系统中的物理与地球化学反应过程的准确刻画是研究汞迁移转化规律的重点和难点.基于某工业场地汞污染数据,首先采用PHREEQC研究地下水中无机二价汞的存在形态,然后利用PHT3D程序建立汞污染物反应性溶质运移二维剖面模型.该模型考虑了汞污染物在地下水系统中的对流、弥散过程及地球化学反应过程（包括水相络合作用、表面络合吸附作用及受动力学控制的氧化还原作用）.结果表明,无机二价汞的存在形态以HgCl₂和Hg（OH）Cl占主导地位,氧化还原作用是影响地下水中汞污染反应性运移的主要控制因素;另一方面,水合氧化铁HFO对汞迁移的阻滞影响较小,而溶解性有机质对汞较强的络合作用不能忽视.本文研究成果可为预测与评估特定污染场地地下水汞污染的变化趋势及制定相应的修复策略提供科学依据.     

锂离子电池安全性特点及热模型研究

锂离子电池的安全问题越来越受到重视.本文从锂离子电池热安全性特点着手,分析了锂离子电池的着火、爆炸和电解液泄漏等安全事故特点.简单介绍了锂离子电池主要材料的产热特性、相互反应产热特性.讨论了锂离子电池热模型建立的两种途径,即量热仪途径和化学反应途径,通过这些热模型的建立,来指导锂离子电池的安全设计和管理.     

光化学烟雾模拟实验系统

为开展光化学污染成因的敏感性分析,设计和建立了目前国内唯一的大型光化学烟雾模拟实验系统．该系统主要包括烟雾箱系统、空气充填置换系统、采样测试系统和记录显示控制系统等4个分系统．与国内外同类型实验系统相比,该系统具有烟雾箱在实验过程中受光均匀、换气系统快捷、效率高以及可实现两箱对比实验等特色．利用实验系统开展了光化学污染过程的模拟实验,得到了典型的污染特征．进行了同等条件的两箱对比实验,实验结果完全一致,表明该实验系统能够开展基于对比实验的敏感性分析研究,从而为进一步针对北京实际开展光化学污染的模拟研究奠定了良好的基础．