Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

Dispersion of Pollutants in Street Canyon under Traffic Induced Flow and Turbulence

A 3-D Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to moving vehicles is presented that takes into account the traffic induced flow rate and turbulence. The method is applied to pollutants dispersion in a street canyon. The approach is based on CFD calculations using Eulerian approach to the continuous phase and Lagrangian approach to the "discrete phase" of moving objects - vehicles. A commercial CFD code StarCD was used into which the Lagrangian model was integrated. As an example a street canyon is taken into consideration. It has the length of 50 m and the aspect ratio of 1.27. The speed of wind was assigned values of 4, 7 and 12 m/s at the altitude of 300 m. The total height of the domain is 115 m. In the study different traffic situations are considered, namely one-way and two-way traffic with different traffic rates per lane. The predictions show that different traffic situations affect pollutants dispersion in the street canyon and that there are also differences in the pollutants dispersion in case of one- and two-way traffic.     

The personal CO2 calculator: A modeling tool for Participatory Integrated Assessment methods

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO₂ Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

环境空气中大气颗粒物源解析的研究进展

介绍了国内外用于大气颗粒物源解析研究的受体模型的进展情况，对受体模型的研究体系，测量分析技术、研究方法作了详细阐述，并对源解析近期的研究热点及发展趋势作了评述。     

孙虎地区烃源岩生排烃史模拟及结果分析

生排烃史是研究成藏过程的关键环节,本文在恢复埋藏史的基础上,通过建立生排烃史模型,模拟并编制各时期的生排烃强度等值线图并分析其生排烃史。结果表明,孙虎地区存在持续沉降型、早期沉降型和二次沉降型三种生排烃类型。沙三段至东营组沉积末期只在北区和前磨头洼陷中心有少量的烃生成排出;孔二段在沙一段沉积末期生排烃范围有所扩大,东营组沉积末期几乎扩展到全区。本区生排烃总量较少,属贫油区块。     

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady‐state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.     

CURVE NUMBER HYDROLOGY IN WATER QUALITY MODELING: USES,ABUSES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Although the curve number method of the Natural Resources Conservation Service has been used as the foundation of the hydrology algorithms in many nonpoint source water quality models, there are significant problematic issues with the way it has been implemented and interpreted that are not generally recognized. This usage is based on misconceptions about the meaning of the runoff value that the method computes, which is a likely fundamental cause of uncertainty in subsequent erosion and pollutant loading predictions dependent on this value. As a result, there are some major limitations on the conclusions and decisions about the effects of management practices on water quality that can be supported with current nonpoint source water quality models. They also cannot supply the detailed quantitative and spatial information needed to address emerging issues. A key prerequisite for improving model predictions is to improve the hydrologic algorithms contained within them. The use of the curve number method is still appropriate for flood hydrograph engineering applications, but more physically based algorithms that simulate all streamflow generating processes are needed for nonpoint source water quality modeling. Spatially distributed hydrologic modeling has tremendous potential in achieving this goal.     

Microbial Fe(III) Reduction in Acidic Mining Lake Sediments after Addition of an Organic Substrate and Lime

To elucidate the role of Fe(III) reduction in mining lake sediments amended with organic substrates, we performed a large (10 m diameter) enclosure experiment in which sediments were amended with Carbokalk, a waste product from sugar industry containing organic carbon and lime. Fe(III) reduction rates were determined monthly by measuring the accumulation of Fe(II) in the sediments in the field. Fe(III) reduction rates were also determined by incubating sediment samples with synthetic Fe(III) oxyhydroxide under in situ temperature in the laboratory. Sulfate reduction was selectively inhibited in the Fe(III) reduction experiments by addition of sodium molybdate. Sulfate reduction was measured by accumulation of reduced inorganic sulfides in the field and by ³⁵S radiotracer using a core injection technique. Sediment incubation and determination of sulfate reduction rates with radiotracer showed that sulfate reduction and direct microbial Fe(III) reduction occured simultaneously in the upper centimeters of the sediments and that both processes contributed to alkalinity generation. However, Fe(III) reduction was the initial process and rates were at least 3.5 fold higher than sulfate reduction rates. The results indicate that the presence of suitable anions for Fe(II) precipitation as carbonate or sulfide is needed in order to prevent loss of potential alkalinity by Fe(II) diffusion and reoxidation in the water column.     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.