The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

基于BP神经网络的煤层自燃预测

在全面分析影响煤层自燃因素的基础上,建立了煤层自燃预测的人工神经网络模型.应用该模型对某煤田的多个煤层样本进行了训练和预测,网络经过10次训练后,误差达到设定的最小值,6次预测测试中最大误差仅为0.027 8,最小的为0.000 1.研究表明,该模型精度较高,可用于预测煤层自燃的实际应用.     

含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物扩散三维数值模拟

耦合微观交通仿真和机动车尾气排放模型,分别对含信号控制人行横道和不含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物排放进行计算,并以此为排放源,采用k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程对风向与街道垂直时的污染扩散情况进行了三维数值模拟.结果表明,k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程可以较好地模拟风向与街道垂直时三维街道峡谷内的污染物扩散情况.峡...     

Scale-up modeling of the twin roll casting process for AZ31 magnesium alloy

In the present study, a 2-D finite-element method (FEM) thermal-fluid-stress model has been developed and validated for the twin roll casting (TRC) of AZ31 magnesium alloy. The model was then used to quantify how the thermo-mechanical history experienced by the strip during TRC would change as the equipment was scaled up from a laboratory size (roll diameter = 355 mm) to a pilot scale (roll diameter = 600 mm) and to an industrial scale (roll diameter = 1150 mm) machine. The model predictions showed that the thermal history and solidification cooling rate experienced by the strip are not affected significantly by caster scale-up. However, the mechanical history experienced by the strip did change remarkably depending on the roll diameters. Casting with bigger rolls led to the development of higher stress levels at the strip surface. The roll separating force/mm width of strip was also predicted to increase significantly when the TRC was scaled to larger sizes. Using the model predicted results, the effect of both casting speed and roll diameter was integrated into an empirical equation to predict the exit temperature and the roll separating force for AZ31. Using this approach, a TRC process map was generated for AZ31 which included roll diameter and casting speed.     

基于CALPUFF模型的漳州市大气环境容量研究

研究表明：CALPUFF模式是运用于广域的大气扩散模型,在区域范围较大的复杂地形条件下的应用具有突出的优势.利用CALPUFF大气扩散模型模拟漳州市2009年气象场和污染物浓度场,采用监测值对模拟结果进行验证表明模型的适用性;基于现状污染源,建立大气污染物传递系数矩阵,结合线性优化法测算了不同环境空气质量标准下漳州市大气环境容量.     

宝鸡市经济增长与环境空气综合污染指数关系研究

文章以空气综合污染指数法分析了宝鸡市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量状况,分析结果表明宝鸡市环境空气质量逐年变好。以人均GDP为经济指标,以空气综合污染指数为环境指标,建立经济增长与环境空气质量之间的计量模型,进行环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究。研究结果表明,宝鸡市经济增长和环境空气质量的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线"拐点"后的下降部分。证明该市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量与人均GDP处于良性发展状态。     

Kinetic extractions to assess mobilization of Zn, Pb, Cu, and Cd in a metal-contaminated soil: EDTA vs. citrate

Kinetic EDTA and citrate extractions were used to mimic metal mobilization in a soil contaminated by metallurgical fallout. Modeling of metal removal rates vs. time distinguished two metal pools: readily labile (QM1) and less labile (QM2). In citrate extractions, total extractability (QM1+QM2) of Zn and Cd was proportionally higher than for Pb and Cu. Proportions of Pb and Cu extracted with EDTA were three times higher than when using citrate. We observed similar QM1/QM2 ratios for Zn and Cu regardless of the extractant, suggesting comparable binding energies to soil constituents. However, for Pb and Cd, more heterogeneous binding energies were hypothesized to explain different kinetic extraction behaviors. Proportions of citrate-labile metals were found consistent with their short-term, in-situ mobility assessed in the studied soil, i.e., metal amount released in the soil solution or extracted by cultivated plants. Kinetic EDTA extractions were hypothesized to be more predictive for long-term metal migration with depth.     

Variation of MCPA, metribuzine, methyltriazine-amine and glyphosate degradation, sorption, mineralization and leaching in different soil horizons

Pesticide mineralization and sorption were determined in 75 soil samples from 15 individually drilled holes through the vadose zone along a 28 km long transect of the Danish outwash plain. Mineralization of the phenoxyacetic acid herbicide MCPA was high both in topsoils and in most subsoils, while metribuzine and methyltriazine-amine was always low. Organic matter and soil pH was shown to be responsible for sorption of MCPA and metribuzine in the topsoils. The sorption of methyltriazine-amine in topsoil was positively correlated with clay and negatively correlated with the pH of the soil. Sorption of glyphosate was tested also high in the subsoils. One-dimensional MACRO modeling of the concentration of MCPA, metribuzine and methyltriazine-amine at 2 m depth calculated that the average concentration of MCPA and methyltriazine-amine in the groundwater was below the administrative limit of 0.1 μg/l in all tested profiles while metribuzine always exceeded the 0.1 μg/l threshold value.     

压力板仪法测土-水特征曲线试验研究

非饱和土土-水特征曲线(SWCC)表示了土中含水量与吸力之间的关系。针对非饱和土干-湿循环过程中的吸力变化特征,开展试验研究。采用体积压力板仪实现非饱和土的脱湿和吸湿过程。试验成果显示:(1)土-水特征曲线是不稳定的,它与土体含水率的变化路径有关;(2)在干湿循环过程中,相同的基质吸力具有不同的含水量。     

基于数字流域的水文过程模拟研究

考虑流域下垫面空间变异性,基于数字高程模型构建了数字流域,并在此基础上对描述流域水文物理过程的数学方法进行了探讨,文章认为,数字水文模型是一种有物理基础的包含大容量信息的现代模拟灌河实例研究表明,数字水文模型可以十分方便地输出水文要素和状态变量的空间分布与时间序列,这对充分利用现有观测信息进行水文信息的深层挖掘创新了条件。