Simulated potential effects of ecological factors on a hypothetical population of Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis)

Simulations provide an opportunity to examine how single or multiple perturbations may impact a specific species. The objectives of this study were to identify thresholds at which changes in stream peak flow, stream base flow, and/or chytrid fungus presence alter long-term Rana chiricahuensis populations. We used scenarios with varying peak flow mortality rates, base flow mortality rates, and chytrid fungus mortality rates. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Over 50 years, populations in six scenarios increased and 13 scenarios decreased. Eight scenarios resulting with fewer than 100 individuals included stochastic effects for at least two of three perturbations and the remaining scenarios included chronic effects of 30% or higher. Scenarios with population increases had either no chytrid fungus effect or chronic effects from perturbations totaling less than 30%. In the absence of chytrid fungus, populations increased and became stable. At a 10% annual death rate caused by chytrid fungus, the R. chiricahuensis population decreased 46.8%. At a 20% death rate, the population decreased 98.6%. Model scenarios were sensitive to peak flow death rates. As peak flow mortality increased to 10 and 20%, extinction rates increased to 91.7 and 99.9%, respectively. With model parameters and the no base flow mortality, R. chiricahuensis populations declined by 92% with a 3.2% extinction rate at 50 years. Models with base flow mortality rates of 10 and 20% resulted in population extinction rates of 48.7 and 96.1%, respectively. Scenario analysis of perturbations on a hypothetical R. chiricahuensis population provided a framework in which to view combined effects on a species. Analysis supports supposition that chytrid fungus is the proximate cause of many amphibian declines, but the added effect of base flow and peak flow has the potential to hasten declines.     

建筑物结构变化对大气污染影响的试验研究

通过风洞实验对大气污染物扩散特性进行了模拟试验研究,重点讨论了建筑物结构形式变化对周围环境污染浓度的影响,在此基础上对影响污染浓度的各个要素进行了分析与讨论,得到了大气污染物在复杂结构建筑物之间扩散的一般规律。     

Automatic control strategy for step feed anoxic/aerobic biological nitrogen removal process

Control of sludge age and mixed liquid suspended solids concentration in the activated sludge process is critical for ensuring effective wastewater treatment. A nonlinear dynamic model for a step-feed activated sludge process was developed in this study. The system is based on the control of the sludge age and mixed liquor suspended solids in the aerator of last stage by adjusting the sludge recycle and wastage flow rates respectively. The simulation results showed that the sludge age remained nearly constant at a value of 16 d in the variation of the influent characteristics. The mixed liquor suspended solids in the aerator of last stage were also maintained to a desired value of 2500 g/m^3 by adjusting wastage flow rates.     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

Influence of non-reactive particle cloud on heterogeneous detonation propagation

An interaction of a detonation wave propagating in the cellular detonation mode with a cloud of inert particles is investigated numerically. The analysis of results allows the regimes of propagation of the heterogeneous plane Chapman–Jouguet and cellular detonations and their suppression to be identified. The influence of various parameters of the inert cloud is demonstrated. The critical length of the cloud sufficient for detonation suppression is determined. It is shown that the disperse composition and the nonuniform distribution of particles in the cloud are important parameters affecting the detonation propagation mode.     

Modeling of a cryogenic liquid pool boiling by CFD simulation

A boiling model is developed by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code to calculate the source term of a cryogenic liquid spill. The model includes the effect of the changing ground temperature on the vaporization rate of the cryogenic liquid. Simulations are performed for liquid nitrogen. The model can describe different boiling regimes (film, transition and nucleate). The heat flux calculated for each boiling regimes are compared to the experimental data from literature. The developed numerical model seems to have a good ability to predict the heat flux for the film boiling stage. Model development is still necessary to improve the prediction of the nucleate boiling regime. Overall, the approach shows very promising results to model the complex physical phenomena involved in in the vaporization of cryogenic liquid pool spilled on ground.     

Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

Expanding Kenya's protected areas under the Convention on Biological Diversity to maximize coverage of plant diversity

Biodiversity is highly valuable and critically threatened by anthropogenic degradation of the natural environment. In response, governments have pledged enhanced protected‐area coverage, which requires scarce biological data to identify conservation priorities. To assist this effort, we mapped conservation priorities in Kenya based on maximizing alpha (species richness) and beta diversity (species turnover) of plant communities while minimizing economic costs. We used plant‐cover percentages from vegetation surveys of over 2000 plots to build separate models for each type of diversity. Opportunity and management costs were based on literature data and interviews with conservation organizations. Species richness was predicted to be highest in a belt from Lake Turkana through Mount Kenya and in a belt parallel to the coast, and species turnover was predicted to be highest in western Kenya and along the coast. Our results suggest the expanding reserve network should focus on the coast and northeastern provinces of Kenya, where new biological surveys would also fill biological data gaps. Meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity target of 17% terrestrial coverage by 2020 would increase representation of Kenya's plant communities by 75%. However, this would require about 50 times more funds than Kenya has received thus far from the Global Environment Facility.     

Assessing the population-level conservation effects of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond their borders. A network of MPAs covering roughly 20% of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary was established in 2003, with a goal of providing regional conservation and fishery benefits. We used a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model and a Bayesian difference-in-difference regression to examine the conditions under which MPAs can provide population-level conservation benefits inside and outside their borders and to assess evidence of those benefits in the Channel Islands. As of 2017, we estimated that biomass densities of targeted fin-fish had a median value 81% higher (90% credible interval: 23–148) inside the Channel Island MPAs than outside. However, we found no clear effect of these MPAs on mean total biomass densities at the population level: estimated median effect was –7% (90% credible interval: –31 to 23) from 2015 to 2017. Our simulation model showed that effect sizes of MPAs of <30% were likely to be difficult to detect (even when they were present); smaller effect sizes (which are likely to be common) were even harder to detect. Clearly, communicating expectations and uncertainties around MPAs is critical to ensuring that MPAs are effective. We provide a novel assessment of the population-level effects of a large MPA network across many different species of targeted fin-fish, and our results offer guidance for communities charged with monitoring and adapting MPAs.     

消毒副产物生成的温度影响和动力学模型

在水厂和供水管网中,加氯消毒副产物(DBPs)的生成浓度会随着季节转换和水温变化而出现明显波动.为了探究不同温度条件下DBP生成浓度的变化规律,本研究利用腐殖酸(HA)作为有机前体物进行加氯消毒,参照DBP统一生成条件(uniform formation condition,UFC),在不同水温下监测DBP[包括三卤甲烷(THM)和卤乙酸(HAA)]的生成浓度,并从动力学角度对该生成反应的机制做出分析,进而建立初步的浓度预测模型.结果表明,对于检测到的3种典型DBPs[三氯甲烷(CHCl3)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)和三氯乙酸(TCAA)],水温升高均能够明显提高其生成速率和最大生成浓度,其中后者随着温度的升高近似呈指数增长(R2>0.90).根据一级反应动力学模型对各组温度条件下的DBP实测值进行拟合,得到了较好的相关性(R2>0.94).为了进一步验证该动力学模型的准确性和可靠性,在20℃和30℃条件下分别采用该模型对DBP的实际生成浓度进行预测,并与实测值进行比较,均得到了良好的预测结果.为定量研究温度对DBP生成速率的影响规律,利用阿伦尼乌斯公式计算得到CHCl3、DCAA和TCAA的表观反应活化能分别为22.3、25.5和40.8 kJ.mol-1.