中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说及验证

提出中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说,并对此进行了分析和验证。在对改革开放以来中国经济增长与农业用水的趋势进行直观分析后,采用了中国31个省市区1999～2005年人均农业用水量和经济增长相关指标的面板数据,通过计量模型检验农业用水库兹涅茨曲线在中国是否存在,定量分析了农业用水量变动与经济增长之间的规律。研究结果表明：农业用水量最初随着人均GDP和人均农林牧渔业增加值增长而增加,当达到某一个阈值点后,开始逐渐下降,基本上符合库兹涅茨曲线的特征。中国目前已处于农业用水库兹涅茨曲线的右半段,但农业用水量下降的速度较为缓慢。因此,在促进经济增长的同时,要注重利用管理和技术等手段来发展节水农业,这将有助于在农业产业内部提升用水效率,缩减农业用水量。〖     

直升机飞行危险天气区数值建模方法研究

探讨了直升机飞行气象要素和危险天气区（颠簸区、强风切变区、低云区和飞机积冰区）的数值建模方法,并基于中尺度大气数值模式WRF,开发了直升机危险天气区数值建模系统,形成了适用于直升机飞行训练仿真的危险天气数据模型。     

基于Agent建模的农户土地利用行为模拟研究——以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例

以Agent强化学习（Reinforcement Learning）模型框架为基础,选择政策、市场、Agent自身及与其它Agent相互作用、土壤肥沃程度等因素作为Agent对环境认识的基础,结合环境反馈值,初步构建了农户土地利用行为决策模型,这对于从微观主体层面揭示土地利用变化的内在机理具有重要意义。论文以陕西省米脂县孟岔村为例,采用农户Agent强化学习模型,模拟了农户土地利用行为,得出以下3个结论：①经过对Agent强化学习模型的检验和验证（按面积统计误差率为5.5%）,认为该模型较适合于微观层面农户土地利用行为的研究;②该模型可定量表达政策、市场、农户自身及与其他农户相互作用等因素对农户土地利用行为决策的影响;③与离散函数的土地利用决策相比,应用连续函数表达农户的土地利用决策比较符合实际农户决策状况（农户最终决策中玉米、蔬菜和其它作物的决策值分别为0.3233、0.4035和0.2732）。同时,在文章的最后还分析了需要进一步研究和探讨的问题：①模型在实现农户决策的空间位置方面取得一定进展,但还存在决策位置失误的问题,函待进一步的研究;②对于影响农户决策的自然因素,探讨定量化表达其对农户影响作用,是下一步研究的重点。     

Modeling of secondary treated wastewater disinfection by UV irradiation: Effects of suspended solids content

This work aimed to study UV-resistant strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, to propose a formulation of the kinetics of secondary treated wastewater disinfection and to underline the influence of suspended solids on the inactivation kinetics of these strains. Some investigations were carried out for the validation of some simulation models, from the simplest, the kinetics model of Chick-Watson reduced to first order, to rather complex models such as multi-kinetic and Collins-Selleck models. Results revealed that the involved processes of UV irradiation were too complex to be approached by a simplified formulation, even in the case of specific strains of microorganisms and the use of nearly constant UV radiation intensity. In fact, the application of Chick-Watson model in its original form is not representative of the kinetics of UV disinfection. Modification, taking into account the speed change during the disinfection process, has not significantly improved results. On the other hand, the application of Collins-Selleck model demonstrates that it was necessary to exceed a least dose of critical radiation to start the process of inactivation. To better explain the process of inactivation, we have assumed that the action of disinfectant on the survival of lonely microorganisms is faster than its action on suspended solids protected or agglomerated to each others. We can assume in this case the existence of two inactivation kinetics during the processes (parallel and independent) of the first-order. For this reason, the application of a new kinetic model by introducing a third factor reflecting the influence of suspended solids in water on disinfection kinetics appeared to be determinant for modeling UV inactivation of P. aeruginosa in secondary treated wastewater.     

改性膨润土对模拟印染废水的动态吸附研究

膨润土吸附法处理工业废水是环境保护与治理中一个重要的研究领域,其分散性能好、颗粒小、比表面积大以及可改善性对处理各类难降解废水有重大意义。文章运用偏微分方程理论建立动态吸附模型,通过计算机语言进行建模和计算,并藉助Origin75软件进行数据曲线拟合,对一种优良改性膨润土固定床处理甲基橙模拟印染废水的实验结果进行了对比分析。结果表明：通过计算机拟合预测的数据基本符合实验结果,说明本文所述方法在改性膨润土吸附模拟染料的实验预测中具有良好的精度。     

金华市经济增长与环境污染关系的定量研究

选取金华市1998年-2007年环境及人均GDP数据,建立工业“三度”排放量与人均GDP之间的计量模型,对经济发展与环境质量关系进行定量分析,得出了金华市环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）特征。实证研究表明：从工业“三废”排放量与经济增长计量模型研究来看,工业“三废”排放量随人均GDP增长的变化趋势基本相似,呈倒U型加U型特征。这些特征和典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线即倒U型不一致。     

大气污染总量控制GA方法中的多源模拟系统

大气污染总量控制的GA方法,是利用遗传算法(GA)的自适应全局搜索寻优功能,通过模拟的自然进化机制来求算经过全局优化的区域允许排放总量以及区域允许排放总量在区域内各污染源之间的分配方案的一种新的大气污染总量控制方法。在基于遗传算法的大气污染总量控制中,需要运用一个高效而可靠的大气污染多源模拟系统,以便根据源强分布快速计算出准确的浓度场。文章介绍了该大气污染多源模拟系统的设计与实现技术。     

准好氧填埋渗滤液水质与COD降解拟合研究

在成都市长安垃圾填埋场内开展了规模为10m×10m×5m的准好氧填埋实验,分别对渗滤液pH值、COD和NH4+-N进行了研究,结果表明:渗滤液COD经过697d后从最初的65324mg/L降低到2013mg/L,下降96.92%;由于渗滤液收集管直径较小,进入垃圾体的氧气量受到限制,所以NH4+-N的降解效果较差。通过Excel和Lingo软件对渗滤液COD的降解趋势进行拟合,结果表明Lingo拟合的效果更佳。     

Impact of safety attitude,safety knowledge and safety leadership on chemical industry workers’ risk perception based on Structural Equation Modelling and System Dynamics

In chemical industry, major accidents occur occasionally. Past research has demonstrated that risk perception was relevant to safety as it might affect the behavior, which could exert influence on the probability of accidents. It is important to adjust workers' risk perception to reduce accidents in chemical industry. To achieve this goal, some key influencing factors of workers’ risk perception of were identified from 3 aspects including safety attitude, safety knowledge and safety leadership. This was accomplished by gathering empirical data from 287 workers employed in 6 Chemical plants in Jiangsu, China. The model of influencing factors of risk perception for workers was established based on Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the path coefficients and weights were analyzed by the SEM. On that basis, the System Dynamics (SD) model of risk perception for workers was established. The study findings revealed safety attitude and safety leadership have a direct positive impact on perception of risk probability and perception of risk severity, safety knowledge has a direct positive impact on perception of risk severity, while safety knowledge has no direct positive impact on perception of risk probability. The findings of the study can provide theoretical supports and method guidance for adjusting the risk perception of workers in chemical industry.     

多介质潜流人工湿地的水动力过程模拟

水动力过程是湿地净化功能发挥的重要机制之一.根据脉冲示踪试验,获得潜流人工湿地的水力停留时间分布曲线.针对其"多峰"现象,利用数学软件MATLAB7.0分别将对数正态分布、对流扩散模型以及考虑延迟的连续完全混合反应器模型时脉冲示踪试验数据进行叠加模拟,同时利用多流弥散模型拟合分析,结果表明:叠加模型和多流弥散模型均能较...