An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

Effects of design parameters on performance and cost analysis of combined ultraviolet-biofilter systems treating gaseous chlorobenzene based on mathematical modeling

A conceptual mathematical model was used to evaluate the design parameters of a combined ultraviolet (UV)-biofilter system, and perform a cost analysis. Results showed that the UV light source strength and the gas residence times in the UV system (UVRT) and biofilter (EBRT) had positive effects on the overall chlorobenzene removal efficiency of the system. High ratio of UVRT to EBRT improved the removal efficiency, suggesting that the UV system has a greater effect on the overall performance of the system compared with the biofilter. Analysis of the capital and operating costs showed that the capital costs of the standalone biofilter system were much higher than those of the standalone UV system. However, the biofilter operating costs were lower than those of the UV system. The operating costs of the combined UV-biofilter system increased with increasing UVRT/EBRT ratio, whereas its capital costs decreased.     

Positive group affective tone and team creativity: Negative group affective tone and team trust as boundary conditions

Drawing on multiple group‐level theories, we explored boundary conditions of the relationship between positive group affective tone (PGAT) and team creativity. We collected data from members and leaders of 68 research and development teams and performed hierarchical linear modeling analyses to test our hypotheses. Consistent with the “group‐centrism” perspective, we found that PGAT was beneficial for team creativity only when team trust was low; when trust was high, PGAT had a negative relationship with team creativity. In accord with the “dual‐tuning” perspective, the positive effect of PGAT on creativity was present only when team trust was low but negative group affective tone was high. We discussed the theoretical and practical implications. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多主体建模的安全注意力衰减模型研究

为预防由安全注意力衰减引起的虚假安全问题,构建员工安全注意力衰减模型。采用多主体建模法并基于Netlogo仿真平台,分析个体因素、管理因素和环境因素对员工安全注意力水平的影响。试验结果表明:在环境因素和管理因素确定的情况下,员工安全注意力水平主要受熟悉程度和安全意识的影响。同时员工安全注意力水平对管理者的危机意识有反馈作用。安全信号强度、频率、员工对安全信息的期待和任务难度以及管理者的监督有效性,均影响员工安全注意力水平。在企业安全管理的具体实施过程中,企业应该考虑如何有效控制上述调节因素并提高员工安全注意力水平。     

中国大陆足迹家族的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析

论文选取我国1987—2013年土地利用、温室气体排放和用水量数据,运用投入产出法计算足迹家族中的土地足迹、碳足迹和水足迹,采用纵横向拉开档次法进行足迹整合,将整合得到的足迹综合指数与足迹家族各项指标取对数后进行环境库兹涅茨曲线分析。计算结果表明：足迹综合指数从1987年的2.274 2增长到2013年的3.816 9,与人均GDP呈平缓型曲线协同增长关系,说明生态占用持续增加,呈现资源利用的不可持续性;土地足迹、碳足迹与水足迹的环境库兹涅茨曲线分别呈∽型、协同增长型以及平稳型,说明我国城镇化正在进入转型期,碳排放仍处于上升阶段,水资源可持续性不乐观,指标的选取影响环境库兹涅茨曲线形态。     

Development of an organizational framework for studying dust explosion phenomena

To develop a predictive dust explosion model or theory many considerations of the interaction between several complex multiscale processes are required. Due to practical considerations only some of the processes may be fully resolved, while the rest must be approximated or neglected. The current study focuses on constructing an organizational framework for dust explosion model development. The framework is organized based on progression of the explosion in time and geometric scale of the important features. Suggested methodologies are given to investigate the small-scale features and develop feed-forward approximations for predictive models at the larger system-scale. The concepts developed through constructing the organizational framework are applied to closed volume dust explosion testing and classification of several sources of experimental variance for this system is given.     

采空区精确建模信息系统实体模型交互接口开发

随着矿业的快速发展,Surpac,Dimine,3DMine等三维矿业软件在矿业领域得到了广泛的应用。为进一步完善自主研发的采空区激光扫描三维精确建模信息系统功能,在解析stl,dxf及dtm格式文件的数据结构及其三维实体数据存储规律的基础上,成功地开发了基于上述三种实体模型存储文件格式的采空区三维实体模型交互接口,实现了信息系统与目前主流三维矿业软件之间三维实体模型的交互。实用表明,所开发的接口能有效实现信息系统与其他三维矿业软件之间采空区三维模型的交互与共享,进一步完善了信息系统的模型数据输入输出功能,提高了其应用价值。     

An integrated model for structure optimization and technology screening of urban wastewater systems

The conventional approach to wastewater system design and planning considers each component separately and does not provide the optimum performance of the entire system. However, the growing concern for environmental protection, economic efficiency, and sustainability of urban wastewater systems requires an integrated modeling of subsystems and a synthetic evaluation of multiple objectives. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model of an integrated urban wastewater system was developed. The model encompasses subsystems, such as a sewer system, stormwater management, municipal wastewater treatment, and a wastewater reclamation system. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was used to generate a range of system design possibilities to optimize conflicting environmental and economic objectives. Information from a knowledge base, which included rules for generating treatment trains as well as the performance characteristics of commonly used water pollution control measures, was utilized. The trade-off relationships between the objectives, total water pollution loads to the environment, and life cycle costs (which consist of investment as well as operation and maintenance costs), can be illustrated using Pareto charts. The developed model can be used to assist decision makers in the preliminary planning of system structure. A benchmark city was constructed to illustrate the methods of multi-objective controls, highlight cost-effective water pollution control measures, and identify the main pressures on urban water environment.     

基于案例推理的突发环境事件应急决策模型

突发环境事件不确定性高、演化过程复杂,给企业及政府的应急工作带来很大的困难,故如何提高应急决策的质量,是相关应急工作的重点之一。为了增强以往经验的可用性,利用本体模型进行案例的存储,根据情景构成要素提取方法对情景进行多维的空间表达,在此基础上优化情景匹配算法,实现基于情景的应急决策。最后,通过突发环境事件实例应用,验证该方法能够快速建立实例与本体模型之间的关系,提高知识的可用性和共享性,实现情景的多维表达,进而满足“情景-应对”的应急决策要求。     

Coupling PCSWMM and WASP to Evaluate Green Stormwater Infrastructure Impacts to Storm Sediment Loads in an Urban Watershed

We coupled rainfall–runoff and instream water quality models to evaluate total suspended solids (TSS) in Wissahickon Creek, a mid‐sized urban stream near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Using stormwater runoff and instream field data, we calibrated the model at a subdaily scale and focused on storm responses. We demonstrate that treating event mean concentrations as a calibration parameter rather than a fixed input can substantially improve model performance. Urban stormwater TSS concentrations vary widely in time and space and are difficult to represent simply. Suspended and deposited sediment pose independent stressors to stream biota and model results suggest that both currently impair stream health in Wissahickon Creek. Retrofitting existing detention basins to prioritize infiltration reduced instream TSS loads by 20%, suggesting that infiltration mitigates sediment more effectively than detention. Infiltrating stormwater from 30% of the watershed reduced instream TSS loads by 47% and cut the frequency of TSS exceeding 100 mg/L by half. Settled loads and the frequency of high TSS values were reduced by a smaller fraction than suspended loads and duration at high TSS values. A widely distributed network of infiltration‐focused projects is an effective stormwater management strategy to mitigate sediment stress. Coupling rainfall–runoff and water quality models is an important way to integrate watershed‐wide impacts and evaluate how management directly affects urban stream health.