Prospect theory and energy efficiency

Investments in energy efficiency entail uncertainty, and when faced with uncertainty consumers have been shown to behave according to prospect theory: preferences are reference-dependent and exhibit loss aversion, and probabilities are subjectively weighted. Using data from a choice experiment eliciting prospect theory parameters, I provide evidence that loss-averse people are less likely to invest in energy efficiency. Then, I consider policy design under prospect theory when there are also externalities from energy use. A higher degree of loss aversion implies a higher subsidy to energy efficiency. Numerical simulations suggest that the impact of prospect theory on policy may be substantial.     

A behavioral rebound effect

Pro-environmental behaviors are an important avenue for mitigating environmental impacts. Technological improvements are also a vital tool for reducing environmental damage from consumption. However, their benefits are partially offset by the direct rebound effect, whereby a consumer rationally responds to an increase in resource use efficiency by consuming more. This paper investigates whether technological improvement might also reduce behaviorally motivated mitigation of environmental damage. A behavioral rebound effect operates through two channels. First, pro-environmental effort is reduced after a decrease in marginal environmental damage. Second, moral licensing reduces pro-environmental effort further when technological change is endogenous. I develop a novel real effort laboratory experiment to identify these behaviors. I find a positive behavioral rebound effect. I also find evidence consistent with moral licensing, which is strongest among subjects with a higher degree of pro-environmental attitudes and beliefs. Subjects’ baseline level of pro-environmental effort is driven by beliefs about social norms.     

Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents’ interest in having the project implemented. However, policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, which, respectively, increases and decreases their willingness-to-pay for the project. We conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents’ perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, and we find no significant relationship.     

消费品风险评价的伤害情景与三维矩阵集成方法

通过对比分析美国、欧盟及中国的消费品质量安全风险监管和评估现状,得出我国在消费品法律及标准、伤害监测与事故信息平台及公开、消费品风险辨识及评价程序等方面有待深化研究;基于2012年欧美等国家、地区对我国出口消费品的通报数据的统计分析,识别了主要消费品的隐患及危害类型,给出了伤害情景与三维矩阵集成的消费品风险评价方法,为消费品安全评价提供了新方法、新途径,并以婴儿车为例,进行了应用分析,检验了该方法的可行性。     

基于不同岩层组合对底板阻水效应的流固耦合机理研究

为了探究不同岩层组合底板对承压水的阻隔效果,以淮北矿区下组煤底板为研究 对象,建立了三种不同组合特征底板模型。基于FISH语言对FLAC3D软件进行二次开发, 对流固耦合条件下不同组合特征底板采动应力及围岩渗透性进行了综合分析。结果表明 :流固耦合条件下,底板采后应力转换点深度较不考虑底板水压条件下加深,且底板深 部出现了明显的卸压现象;硬软型底板采后卸荷程度及应力转换点降幅最大,而软硬相 间型底板受最小;硬软型底板采后渗透性提高4.5倍,而软硬相间型底板仅提高1.4倍, 研究结果揭示出软硬相间岩层组合底板阻水效果最好,而硬软型底板最差。     

复杂形态井巷工程三维激光扫描与MIDAS-FLAC3D耦合建模稳定性分析研究

受井巷工程空间形态的复杂性及探测技术的局限性影响,部分人员无法进入的复杂形态井巷工程的实际空间形态往往很难准确获得,复杂井巷工程的数值分析往往很难进行建模或建立模型与实际误差较大,而在此基础上进行的稳定性分析结果可靠性往往较差。采用三维激光扫描技术对复杂形态井巷工程进行三维激光点云扫描,基于点云数据运用MIDAS软件建立精确形态的复杂井巷工程模型,通过耦合技术建立最终可以在FLAC3D中进行运算并且与实际形态相一致的数值模型。最后以某矿山主溜井为工程实例,利用三维激光精确扫描技术获取该井巷工程的实际空间形态,在此基础上进行MIDAS与FLAC3D耦合方法的建模分析,对该复杂井巷工程的稳定状况进行了稳定性分析。     

闭环回旋控尘技术的三维数值模拟研究

针对输煤皮带转载点粉尘污染大的问题,提出一种新型粉尘控制技术。以霍州煤电集团木瓜煤矿为例,以气固两相流理论的颗粒轨道模型为基础,结合现场实际粉尘扩散规律,三维数值模拟皮带转载点的粉尘逸散规律。根据粉尘颗粒在皮带转载点的运移规律,提出了闭环回旋控尘技术,通过气固两相流和颗粒碰撞理论的三维数值模拟对该技术的控尘机理进行研究,并在木瓜煤矿进行试验应用。结果表明:闭环回旋控尘技术能有效控制粉尘扩散和降低粉尘颗粒动能,其降尘效率达到88%以上,同时,该技术无需任何动力,是未来节能型除尘产品的发展方向。     

三峡水库香溪河库湾拟多甲藻的昼夜垂直迁移特性

2008年4月3日08:00—4日08:00在三峡水库香溪河库湾5个监测点对拟多甲藻(Peridiniopsis sp.)进行了24 h连续监测,以研究拟多甲藻的昼夜垂直迁移特性,并解释拟多甲藻水华表层水体表观颜色昼夜变化的原因. 结果表明:拟多甲藻在12 m水深以上水柱中存在明显的周期性昼夜垂直迁移特性,00:00—16:00拟多甲藻向表层水体迁移并聚集,最大上移速度约为2 m/h;16:00—00:00拟多甲藻向下部水体迁移,最大下移速度约为4 m/h;拟多甲藻的昼夜垂直迁移是导致拟多甲藻水华表层水体表观颜色不断变化的主要原因. 水体中各层叶绿素a质量浓度〔ρ(Chla)〕昼夜变化较大,用单层ρ(Chla)不足以评价藻类水华暴发程度;均深叶绿素a质量浓度〔ρ(A.D. Chla)〕的昼夜变化不大,能够综合表征藻类迁移水柱中藻类的现存量,可以作为河道型水库拟多甲藻水华暴发程度的评价指标.      

Fate and transport of phenol in a packed bed reactor containing simulated solid waste

An assessment of the risk to human health and the environment associated with the presence of organic contaminants (OCs) in landfills necessitates reliable predictive models. The overall objectives of this study were to (1) conduct column experiments to measure the fate and transport of an OC in a simulated solid waste mixture, (2) compare the results of column experiments to model predictions using HYDRUS-1D (version 4.13), a contaminant fate and transport model that can be parameterized to simulate the laboratory experimental system, and (3) determine model input parameters from independently conducted batch experiments. Experiments were conducted in which sorption only and sorption plus biodegradation influenced OC transport. HYDRUS-1D can reasonably simulate the fate and transport of phenol in an anaerobic and fully saturated waste column in which biodegradation and sorption are the prevailing fate processes. The agreement between model predictions and column data was imperfect (i.e., within a factor of two) for the sorption plus biodegradation test and the error almost certainly lies in the difficulty of measuring a biodegradation rate that is applicable to the column conditions. Nevertheless, a biodegradation rate estimate that is within a factor of two or even five may be adequate in the context of a landfill, given the extended retention time and the fact that leachate release will be controlled by the infiltration rate which can be minimized by engineering controls.     

火电厂干法脱硫灰再利用的研究

随着干法脱硫技术的推广,其副产物脱硫灰的综合利用成为亟待解决的问题。介绍了干法脱硫副产物脱硫灰的利用现状,根据脱硫灰的性质对各种利用方式存在问题进行了分析探讨。