常州市水质总体规划方案的多指标决策研究

本文概述了用于水质总体规划研究中的协调规划、协同游戏理论和存优汰劣等3种多指标决策方法。介绍了在常州市水质保护总体规划方案优化研究中应用多指标决策方法,在进行水质效益和费用分析基础上,确定最优的总体规划方案。     

Threshold-Based Resource Management: A Framework for Comprehensive Ecosystem Management

The problems posed by adaptive management for improved ecosystem health are reviewed. Other kinds of science-informed ecosystem management are needed for those regions of conflict between rapid human population growth, increased resource extraction, and the rising demand for better environmental amenities, where large-scale experiments are not feasible. One new framework is threshold-based resource management. Threshold-based resource management guides management choices among four major science and engineering approaches to achieve healthier ecosystems: self-sustaining ecosystem management, adaptive management, case-by-case resource management, and high-reliability management. As resource conflicts increase over a landscape (i.e., as the ecosystems in the landscape move through different thresholds), management options change for the environmental decision-maker in terms of what can and cannot be attained by way of ecosystem health. The major policy and management implication of the framework is that the exclusive use or recommendation of any one management regime, be it self-sustaining, adaptive, case-by-case, or high-reliability management, across all categories of ecosystems within a heterogeneous landscape that is variably populated and extractively used is not only inappropriate, it is fatal to the goals of improved ecosystem health. The article concludes with detailed proposals for environmental decision-makers to undertake “bandwidth management” in ways that blend the best of adaptive management and high-reliability management for improved ecosystem health while at the same time maintaining highly reliable flows of ecosystem services, such as water.     

Mineral resources appraisal and policy: Controversies,issues and the future

Political-economic events of the 1970s brought mineral resource appraisal to the focus of national policy. Estimates of and methodologies for mineral resources appraisal were scrutinized, revealing deficiencies in method and data and fostering considerable debate about the credibility of estimates and about preferred methodology. Since credibility can be increased through the acquisition of additional geoscience information, questions regarding methodology have more than one formulation and therefore more than one correct solution, depending upon the expected value of additional information and the conditional losses of relevant policy options. When existing information is meagre and the expected value of information is high, the optimum decision may be to defer all policy options until after the acquisition and analysis of- additional information. Decision theory offers an analytical framework that is sufficiently generalized to provide answers for highly varied circumstances of geoscience and resource information and policy issues. Our ability to perform any such analysis is limited by inaccuracies in both geologists' estimates of undiscovered mineral resources, and in economists' calculations of conditional losses of policy options for each of the relevant states of mineral resources.     

Towards global climate change mitigation: assessment of an afforestation option for Nigeria

This paper assesses the potential of an intensive afforestation program as a measure of reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon in Nigeria. The results presented are based on the recently completed Nigerian Country Studies Program on Climate Change Mitigation. A comprehensive mitigation analysis process (COMAP) model was employed to carry out detailed cost/benefit evaluation of the mitigation option. The end-use based scenario adopted was considered the most appropriate strategy to sustainably implement the mitigation option in Nigeria.The analyses showed that the country could significantly reduce net carbon emission while at the same time meet all her essential domestic wood needs, if approximately 7.5×10⁶ ha of wasteland could be committed to an afforestation program over the 40 year period of projection. The initial cost of establishing such forest plantations, taking cognisance of the opportunity cost of land averaged at about US$500/ha, or in carbon terms, a unit cost of about $13 per tonne of carbon. In terms of carbon flow, if all the end-product based plantations considered (i.e. fuelwood, poles, pulpwood, sawlogs and veneer) were fully established and maintained, it was estimated that by the year 2030, the total carbon stored in the afforested land would be about 638.0×10⁶ t of carbon with an annual incremental rate of 16.0×10⁶ t of carbon. Other economic indicators (i.e. net present value of benefits, present value of costs and benefit for reduced atmospheric carbon) when evaluated showed that the afforestation option could be economically viable even when the investment capital was discounted at rates ranging from 9 to 33 percent for different wood products. It should be noted, however that implementation of such a program would require huge sums of money and a high degree of commitment on the part of Federal, State and Local governments if the associated financial, social and environmental benefits were to be derived.     

Mitigation Options for Enteric Methane Emissions from Dairy Animals: An Evaluation for Potential CDM Projects in India

Enteric fermentation in livestock is an important source of anthropogenic methane emission. India, with its large livestock population, is estimated to contribute 10.8 Tg of methane annually from this source. An evaluation of various methane mitigation options indicate that some of the available technologies like, diet supplementation with feed additive and molasses urea product are highly cost effective in reducing enteric methane emissions. The gross cost of methane abatement from use of feed additive monensin premix ranges from €0.6 to €1.8/ton CO₂ equivalent, for buffaloes and indigenous cows, respectively. The gross cost of enteric methane mitigation from supplementing molasses urea products and dietary manipulation through increased concentrate feeding is much higher. But, as the monetary value of the increased milk production on application of these technologies was higher than the annual cost of reduction strategy for buffaloes and crossbred cows, the net costs of the former mitigation option was negative for buffaloes (€-28.1/ton CO₂) and of the latter for crossbred cows (€-7.0/ton CO₂,). The availability of cost-effective technologies suggest that the methane mitigation projects under CDM, can be planned in the Indian dairy sector to the mutual benefit of countries with emission targets and India. The vast dairy animal population of India and resulting methane emissions provide good opportunity these countries to buy reasonable quantum of emission credits from projects in India. Such projects will work to the benefit to India by providing a tool for technology transfer to increase animal productivity and attract capital that assists in more prosperous and environmental friendly milk production in the country.     

Divorce and extrapair mating in female black-capped chickadees (Parus atricapillus): separate strategies with a common target

Patterns of divorce and extrapair mating can provide insights into the targets of female choice in free-living birds. In resident, site-faithful species with continuous partnerships, the better options and the incompatibility hypotheses provide the most likely explanations for divorce. Extrapair mating can be explained by a number of hypotheses often making similar predictions. For example, the good genes and future partnerships hypo- theses predict similar patterns if males with good genes also make the best future partners. By considering both divorce and extrapair mating, it may be possible to distinguish between these comparable hypotheses. We examined natural patterns of divorce and extrapair mating in a long-term study of black-capped chickadees (Parus atricapillus). Out of 144 partnerships over 8 years, we observed 11 divorces and 38 faithful pairs between seasons. Females usually divorced between their first and second breeding seasons for males of higher social rank than their previous partners, had similar reproductive success prior to divorce as females who retained their previous partners, and did not divorce on the basis of previous reproductive success. These results confirm earlier experimental evidence that females divorce for better options. Females who divorced were significantly more likely to have had mixed-paternity broods prior to divorce than females who stayed with their previous partners. There was no evidence that females divorced in favour of previous extrapair partners. These results support the good genes hypothesis for extrapair mating, suggesting that female chickadees use divorce and multiple mating as separate strategies sharing a common target. Received: 4 February 2000 / Revised: 20 July 2000 / Accepted: 4 September 2000     

稻田甲烷排放量估算和减缓技术选择

根据中国不同生态类型地区的稻田甲烷排放通量，估算了中国稻田甲烷排放总量。结果表明，１９９０年中国稻田甲烷排放总量为１１．３３５Ｔｇ。提出了一些减缓稻田甲烷排放措施，包括：（１）使用稻田甲烷抑制剂；（２）肥料管理；（３）水分管理；（４）筛选低排放率、高产的水稻品种。     

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.     

Application of a system dynamics approach for assessment and mitigation of CO2 emissions from the cement industry

A system dynamics model based on the dynamic interactions among a number of system components is developed to estimate CO(2) emissions from the cement industry in India. The CO(2) emissions are projected to reach 396.89 million tonnes by the year 2020 if the existing cement making technological options are followed. Policy options of population growth stabilisation, energy conservation and structural management in cement manufacturing processes are incorporated for developing the CO(2) mitigation scenarios. A 42% reduction in the CO(2) emissions can be achieved in the year 2020 based on an integrated mitigation scenario. Indirect CO(2) emissions from the transport of raw materials to the cement plants and finished product to market are also estimated.