规划环评中公众参与有效性案例研究

针对规划环评的特点,通过秦皇岛经济技术开发区规划环评案例分析,就如何保证规划环境影响评价中公众参与有效性进行了探讨,提出了只有做到广泛的公众代表性、有效的公众参与形式、科学的问卷设计、合理的反馈意见处理,才能发挥公众参与在规划环境影响评价工作中的作用。     

Ontic openness: An absolute necessity for all developmental processes

The physicist Walter M. Elsasser is mostly known for his work on the Earth's magnetism. Less attention has been paid to his efforts toward identifying what are the real differences between physical and biological systems. One essential distinction he recognized was that physical systems are largely homogenous while biological systems always revealed what he called ordered heterogeneity. Calculation of the possible configurations of such heterogeneous systems almost always leads to combinatorial explosions and to what Elsasser referred to as immense numbers. Such calculations have the consequence that any such systems are necessarily unique - mathematically speaking they represent one-sets.Another consequence is that immense numbers automatically introduce enormous uncertainty and indeterminacy into the system. Such systems are said to be ontically open. Applying this perspective to the genome and employing the notion of informational entropy reveals a common drive behind all development. This means that both conventional Darwinian evolution as well as the genomic mistakes that are believed to lie behind processes like aging and diseases can be interpreted against the background of one and the same process.At the same time the approach demonstrates how Darwinian evolution encompasses other notions such as Kauffman's “adjacent possible” ( [Kauffman, 1995] and [Kauffman, 2000]) and Eldrege's and Gould's “evolution via punctuated equilibria” (e.g., [Eldredge and Gould, 1972] and [Gould and Eldredge, 1977]).     

A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management1

Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x Abstract: This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

京津冀地区“煤改电”对PM2.5污染的健康效益评估

为准确评估京津冀地区采暖期实施“煤改电”政策带来的健康效益,估算了京津冀地区各区县采暖期“煤改电”政策实施前后PM_2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数,并采用支付意愿法计算了相应的健康损失价值.结果表明,京津冀地区“煤改电”政策实施后带来了1 745人(95%CI:1 443～1 907)健康效益和23.78亿元(95%CI:14.50～30.63)经济效益.北京、天津及河北地区的健康效益分别为495人(95%CI:436～554)、 296人(95%CI:238～354)及954人(95%CI:693～1 076).经济效益分别为3.50亿元(95%CI:3.08～3.92)、 3.32亿元(95%CI:2.67～3.96)及16.96亿元(95%CI:8.75～22.75),分别占各地区GDP的0.01%、 0.02%及0.04%. COPD、 LC、 ALRI、 IHD、 STROKE减少的死亡人数分别为187人(95%CI:165～224)、 318人(95%CI:178～458)、 193人(95%CI:115～204)、 506人(95%CI:232～780)...     

粤港澳大湾区污染场地土壤风险管控制度体系建设与思考

防范污染场地环境风险和保障人居环境安全是粤港澳大湾区建设世界级城市群面临的重要挑战和工作内容之一.由于粤港澳在政治制度和土地管理等方面的差异,以及珠三角9市内部城市化水平、产业结构以及环境管理能力的差别,大湾区各地污染场地风险管控模式有明显的差异,分析粤港澳大湾区典型城市污染场地风险管控特点,对加强污染场地风险管控技术交流与合作,优化大湾区污染场地风险管控制度具有重要意义.本文在简述我国污染场地风险管控制度体系的基础上,重点介绍了广州、深圳、东莞、香港和澳门的污染场地风险管控制度体系、监管对象、污染评估与整治程序等的特点,对其风险管控制度体系进行了分析与对比,并针对土地规划、政策反馈、信息公开及联盟机制探索等提出了思考与建议.总体来看,香港及珠三角部分地市构建了行之有效的污染场地风险管控制度体系,且体现了一定的地方特点,但随着污染场地的进一步开发再利用,打造粤港澳大湾区世界级城市群的建设目标将对污染场地风险管控策略的安全性、精细化和时效性等提出更高的要求,互相借鉴和充分学习,加强大湾区2区9市污染场地风险管控上的技术交流与合作,是实现大湾区污染场地安全再利用与高效开发的有效路径.     

中国红色旅游政策实施对网络关注度的空间溢出效应——基于语义分析与空间计量的实证

从政策供给和公众需求的双重视角对中国红色旅游发展进行研究,有助于自上而下进行旅游资源的调配优化和自下而上调整红色旅游产品的开发创新。整合2011—2019年有关红色旅游的政务服务文本、微博信息文本和中国大陆31个省份的面板数据,使用文本语义分析比较了政策实施和网络关注的差异,从政策空间关联的视角构建空间权重矩阵,应用空间面板杜宾模型,测算红色旅游政策实施对网络关注度的空间溢出效应。结果表明：（1）自上而下的红色旅游政策实施与自下而上的网络反馈之间存在差异。（2）红色旅游网络关注度具有显著的地理和政策空间依赖性,政务服务中对传播红色文化目标的重视是网络关注度空间溢出效应产生的主要原因,政策稳定性则与红色旅游网络关注度呈负相关关系,地方政府间不稳定的竞合关系和政策发展环境的低水平稳态是导致公众对红色旅游关注度不及政策预期的可能原因。（3）在地理和政策空间关联作用下,地区公共服务能力呈现出正向溢出效应,而信息化变量表现为负向溢出效应,加强区域联动和信息化融合是红色旅游政策创新的方向。     

Retrofitting residential building envelopes for energy efficiency: motivations of individual homeowners in Israel

The willingness of private individuals in Israel to invest in energy-saving retrofit of the envelope of residential buildings was studied by means of a survey. Responses show that awareness of the need to conserve energy is high, but that willingness to participate in a retrofit project is modest and is limited to relatively small outlays. The decision on whether to retrofit at all, and then how much to invest in the project, is characterized as a two-stage process in which different factors may affect the outcome of each of the two stages. The major barrier to building retrofit is the perception (justified, in most cases) that the direct economic benefit to the homeowner from the resulting energy saving is small, and that given Israel's relatively mild climate, the payback period is very long. The stamp of approval provided by a government subsidy of 25% would have a large non-proportional effect on willingness to undertake building retrofit. Funding for the subsidy could be obtained from a Pigovian levy on electricity, applied for a limited period, and its environmental benefits outweigh the cost of the subsidy itself.     

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.