Not just a matter of knowledge. The Katrina debacle

The paper deals with hurricane Katrina, which hit the Gulf coast of the US at the end of August 2005, with disastrous consequences. The paper sketches the chronicle of the main events and deals with preparation and response in New Orleans, exploring the connection between knowledge and disaster management policies, in particular communication policy. The main failures in applying and sharing available information for preventing and limiting damage are attributed to lack of coordination between elected officials, authorities and agencies at all levels. The critical role of the media in shaping the perception of the event and the immediate response to it is also highlighted.     

《破坏性地震应急条例》修订若干问题研究

随着经济社会和防震减灾事业的发展,特别是《突发事件应对法》的发布实施和《防震减灾法》的修订,曾经为加强和规范地震应急管理,推进防震减灾事业全面发展,发挥了重要的制度保障作用的《破坏性地震应急条例》,在实施过程中出现了一些明显不适应的地方,对条例进行修订已迫在眉睫。本文阐述了条例修订的基本原则和意义,并就应急机构、应急预...     

火山灾害及其监测预防

本文阐明火山灾害是一种重大自然灾害,给人民生命财产造成严重损失。文中指出当前火山活动进入新的活跃期,提出我国火山灾害的潜在危险。我国许多休眠火山区,正在成为新的经济开发区和旅游疗养、开发地热和建材资源的新兴城镇,人口迅速增加,经济蓬勃发展。但还没有采取有效的火山监测研究和防灾措施。作者建议,应把火山监测研究纳入政府防灾日程,制定规划,拨出专款,把防御火山灾害同国土开发,经济建设结合起来。     

Revealing the socioeconomic impact of small disasters in Colombia using the DesInventar database

Small disasters are usually the product of climate variability and climate change. Analysis of them illustrates that they increase difficulties for local development—frequently affecting the livelihoods of poor people and perpetuating their level of poverty and human insecurity—and entail challenges for a country's development. In contrast to extreme events, small disasters are often invisible at the national level and their effects are not considered as relevant from a macroeconomic standpoint. Nevertheless, their accumulated impact causes economic, environmental and social problems. This paper presents the results of an evaluation of the DesInventar database, developed in 1994 by the Network for Social Studies in Disaster Prevention in Latin America. In addition, it proposes a new version of the Local Disaster Index developed in 2005 within the framework of the Disaster Risk and Management Indicators Program for the Americas, with the support of the Inter‐American Development Bank.     

智能型城市防洪除涝决策支持系统总体设计研究

智能型城市防洪除涝决策支持系统是城市防洪除涝减灾的一种综合性非工程 措施。本文根据作者的经验总结和研究工作,着重阐述了其总体设计的思路、原 则、特点、及结构设计,并对专家系统、GIS技术、遥感遥测技术等高新科技在 城市防洪除涝减灾辅助决策中的作用,作了专门论述。     

A Quantitative Method for Estimating Probable Public Costs of Hurricanes

/ A method is presented for estimating probable public costs resulting from damage caused by hurricanes, measured as local government expenditures approved for reimbursement under the Stafford Act Section 406 Public Assistance Program. The method employs a multivariate model developed through multiple regression analysis of an array of independent variables that measure meteorological, socioeconomic, and physical conditions related to the landfall of hurricanes within a local government jurisdiction. From the regression analysis we chose a log-log (base 10) model that explains 74% of the variance in the expenditure data using population and wind speed as predictors. We illustrate application of the method for a local jurisdiction-Lee County, Florida, USA. The results show that potential public costs range from $4.7 million for a category 1 hurricane with winds of 137 kilometers per hour (85 miles per hour) to $130 million for a category 5 hurricane with winds of 265 kilometers per hour (165 miles per hour). Based on these figures, we estimate expected annual public costs of $2.3 million. These cost estimates: (1) provide useful guidance for anticipating the magnitude of the federal, state, and local expenditures that would be required for the array of possible hurricanes that could affect that jurisdiction; (2) allow policy makers to assess the implications of alternative federal and state policies for providing public assistance to jurisdictions that experience hurricane damage; and (3) provide information needed to develop a contingency fund or other financial mechanism for assuring that the community has sufficient funds available to meet its obligations. KEY WORDS: Hurricane; Public costs; Local government; Disaster recovery; Disaster response; Florida; Stafford Act     

森林火灾重灾年(季)灾变原理和机制的研究

根据辩证逻辑和唯物哲学“联系的普遍性和多样性”、“物质运动规律性”及“量变 -质变”原理和13年来对森林火灾与太阳黑子活动异常、海温异常、海陆气压异常、大气环流异常、强地震活动、地球自转速度变化等地球各圈层重大异常变化关系的研究结果和经验积累 ,以及近年来国内外自然灾害研究界共识的“许多自然灾害具有群发性、相关性和连锁性规律”观点 ,研究并提出了一个林区发生大规模森林火灾以至最终形成森林火灾重灾年 (季 )的基本原理———四因素轨迹交叉论理论 ,并同时提出了大规模森林火灾及森林火灾重灾年 (季 )的灾变机制和逻辑过程理论 ,为林火长期管理和科学地预防、控制森林火灾灾害提供了一种全新的理念 ,为森林火灾长期预报和防治决策提供了重要理论和基础     

小城镇基础设施防灾减灾决策支持系统的研究与开发

利用信息技术研究灾害问题成为研究热点之一 ,但在小城镇防灾减灾方面仍缺少应有的关注和重视。笔者将地理信息系统 (GIS)和决策支持系统 (DSS)集成应用于开发“基于GIS的小城镇基础设施防灾减灾决策支持系统” ,简要介绍了该系统研制目标和原则、系统结构框架及各子系统的功能 ,解决了系统实现过程中的一系列关键技术 :快速、高效构建小城镇基础空间数据库及三维可视化、应急预案及历史灾情库的电子化及各类灾害分析模拟的专业模型等。实践证明 ,基于基础设施、灾害源、防护保卫目标、应急救援力量的可视化与数字化 ,该系统能够实现对其进行科学管理、对各单一灾种的模拟分析以及应急决策支持 ,有效提高小城镇政府的应急指挥决策水平 ,增强其灾害应急反应能力。     

基于灾害系统理论的地震灾害链研究——中国汶川“5.12”地震和日本福岛“3.11”地震灾害链对比

重大自然灾害中灾害链对灾情的巨大放大、累加作用,使灾害链研究备受关注。基于灾害系统理论,以中国汶川"5.12"地震灾害和日本福岛"3.11"地震灾害为例进行了地震灾害链梳理和区域对比,并探讨了不同灾害系统下,孕灾环境和承灾体对灾害链致灾成灾的影响。通过构建承灾体脆弱性与灾情累积关系的概念模型,阐述了灾害链对灾情的放大机制。研究表明:汶川地震具有陆地山区灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→崩塌/滑坡→(泥石流→)堰塞湖灾害链和地震→结构破坏→设施受损灾害链;日本地震具有海洋岛屿灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→海啸→核事故灾害链、地震→(海啸→)结构破坏→火灾/生命线系统损毁灾害链和地震→滑坡/火山/水库溃坝灾害链等;两场地震灾害中灾害链的成因及灾害链对灾情的放大过程差异显著;福岛地震灾害链危害巨大,使灾情在其他相关国家放大。     

自然灾害的物元分析灾情评估模型初探

本文提出了用物元分析进行灾情评估的新方法。该方法将灾情划分为三类,计算每项评估指标对各类灾情的关联函数,采用指数超标法计算各项指标的权值,然后应用加权公式计算全部指标对各类灾情的综合关联程度,并根据评价标准对灾情作出评估。该方法应用于45个灾情个例评估结果与用灾度判别法评估结果比较表明其用于灾情评估具有科学性和实用性。