Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性,基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法,提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先,利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数,构建管段的影响系数矩阵,并利用信息熵确定管段权重;其次,标准化处理影响系数矩阵,通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法,对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定;最后,根据工程实例进行方法实践,结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理,地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀,而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响,保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

“Science is Everywhere,but No One Knows It”: Assessing the Cultural Distance to Science of Rural South African Publics

ABSTRACT

In science communication, a prerequisite for reaching different parts of a society is to find out how these publics experience and interpret science. Since rural South African publics are perceived to exhibit a large cultural distance to science, the present exploratory study aimed to know in more detail how rural South Africans perceive and understand science in their local and social contexts. Theoretical notions on cultural distance and the methodological approach of segmentation studies were considered. Semi-structured interviews with rural South Africans were carried out in four towns (n?=?52) that differ with respect to having a large scientific installation in their vicinity, or not. Sensitively comparing local and social contexts helped identifying three different publics who differed regarding their perceptions of science; however, the large scientific installations only made a difference in perceptions for those publics who were generally less exposed to and less knowledgeable about science.     

水环境中石油类物质分析方法探讨

在详述了国内外石油类分析方法的基础上,对各方法的适用范围、优缺点及可比性进行了深入分析,阐述了各类方法存在的共性问题,指出按照石油类物质毒性大小分别定量分析的方法将是未来的发展趋势。     

稀有鮈鲫成体神经发生相关基因的分子克隆及序列分析

成体神经发生是脊椎动物中广泛存在的一种生物学特征。成体硬骨鱼类的脑展现出强烈的神经活性以及出色的脑修复能力,这使得硬骨鱼类成为研究成体神经发生和脑修复的一个理想的模型。本文克隆了成体稀有鮈鲫(Gobiocypris rarus)脑组织中神经发生及脑修复相关的hes5、pax6、sox11和prox1基因的部分c DNA序列并进行了序列分析。序列分析结果表明,pax6和sox11基因片段与斑马鱼(Danio rerio)对应的基因片段的同源性最高,分别为97%和94%;hes5基因与鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)相对应的基因片段的同源性最高,为92%;prox1基因在物种间的同源性最低。基于稀有鮈鲫和已知物种相应基因的核苷酸序列构建了系统发育树,发现稀有鮈鲫prox1基因与其他硬骨鱼类的亲缘关系最远。本文为进一步开展神经毒性类化学品对水生生物鱼类的成体神经毒性作用机制研究提供了分子生物学基础。     

基于统计方法的辽东湾沉积物中多环芳烃来源特征分析

为研究辽东湾表层沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的来源特征,2014年5月采集了20个辽东湾海域表层沉积物样品,并利用气相色谱质谱联用仪对优先控制的16种PAHs进行测定,采用聚类分析、主成分分析-多元线性回归分析、异构体比值3种统计方法对辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs来源特征进行了研究。结果表明,辽东湾表层沉积物中PAHs含量范围88.5~199.3 ng·g-1,平均值为(126.3±35.3)ng·g-1,其中,萘、菲和荧蒽是PAHs优势组分。通过统计分析结果表明,辽东湾北部表层沉积物中PAHs含量低于西南部,沉积物中PAHs的来源包括石油燃烧来源、煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源和石油来源,其中燃烧来源是主要来源,煤炭、木材等生物质燃烧来源占49.9%,石油燃烧来源和石油来源占50.1%。     

围垦后南汇东滩海三棱藨草的空间分布及其影响因子研究

2015年9月~10月期间对2012年底围垦后南汇嘴区域的海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)湿地系统进行了调研,运用主成分分析、典范对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)方法,基于101个样地土壤的有机碳、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮、亚硝酸盐氮、氨氮、正磷酸盐、pH、含水率、粒径、盐度、滩涂高程等12个环境因子数据,探讨了围垦后海三棱藨草空间分布的关键影响因子。结果表明:海三棱藨草的分布与滩涂高程具有显著正相关(P0.05),海三棱藨草群落主要分布在南汇滩涂2.5~3.4 m高程范围内;海三棱藨草的密度、盖度与盐度呈显著正相关(P0.05)。结论认为滩涂高程和土壤盐度是影响海三棱藨草分布的主要环境因子。未来需要结合围垦后的水动力变化过程数值模拟,对海三棱藨草生态系统高时空分辨率的响应过程及机制进行研究,以进一步确立海三棱藨草对围垦工程响应的关键阈值。研究对围垦工程后的滨海湿地植被恢复及滩涂生态修复具有参考意义。     

Taming the Climate? Corpus analysis of politicians’ speech on climate change

The politics of climate change is much discussed, but there has been little investigation into how politicians themselves understand or articulate the issue. Corpus analysis, a method developed within linguistics, is used to investigate how UK politicians talk about climate change, using the example of the 2008 Climate Change Bill. Corpus techniques, including keyword analysis, collocation and semantic tagging, are used, alongside critical reading of the text. The analysis shows that politicians frame climate change as an economic and technical issue, and neglect discussion of the human and social dimensions. They are selective in their use of scientific evidence, with little mention of abrupt or irreversible change. In doing so, they attempt to ‘tame’ climate change, rather than confronting difficult realities. While this strategy has the benefit of political acceptability, it does not allow for discussion of the full political and social implications of climate change, and precludes more radical responses.     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Unpacking the objectives and assumptions underpinning European aquaculture

Increasing demand for seafood and the lack of growth of capture fisheries have boosted aquaculture growth worldwide. However, European aquaculture has been stagnating over the past decade, and European public authorities have been developing policies and strategies in efforts to reverse this. Aquaculture discourses in the European Union, based on 34 policy, planning, and strategy documents, are examined and a discourse analysis conducted following Bacchi’s WPR (What is the Problem Represented to be?) approach. How the problems in these discourses are represented, the tensions among main objectives, and the implicit assumptions are unveiled, and discussed employing a Polanyian theoretical framework. Taking these assumptions for granted leads to a disembedded understanding of aquaculture, and facilitates the privatization of aquatic space and resources. The analysis contributes to the literature establishing the link between the expansion of aquaculture and the enclosure of aquatic resources and enriches environmental and political debates on European aquaculture.