地铁车站暴雨内涝应急响应投入策略研究*

为准确高效地开展地铁车站暴雨内涝应急响应活动,增强应对暴雨内涝灾害的救援能力,采用SHEL系统模型识别响应效能影响因素,分析各影响因素之间的相互作用机制,研究如何协调各个因素的投入比例,以达到响应效能最优,利用Vensim软件,结合成都地铁11号线相关数据进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明:应急响应活动存在明显阶段性特征,应急响应活动前期应保证救援人员快速到场,中期应特别注重提高救援指挥机构决策效率,后期更应关注硬件配置,且在应急响应活动全过程中持续保证人员与其他各界面的动态匹配。研究结果可为应对暴雨内涝灾害提供参考。     

Dynamics of colony development in Polistes dominulus: a modeling approach

A simple model based on feedback mechanisms is developed to describe the dynamics of brood production and colony development of primitively eusocial paper wasps. The presence of pupae and empty cells stimulate egg laying, which varies between a basic rate and a physiological maximum. Newly hatched larvae are fed eggs, causing fluctuations in brood demography and forming cohorts of offspring. The basic feedback mechanisms produce emergent colony-level properties such as synchronized development of the brood and mature nest size. Results suggest that it is incorrect to imply colony decline from lack of nest growth, and that production of waves of offspring can be interpreted as the inevitable result of these simple feedback mechanisms rather than the solution to ultimate optimality criteria. Simulations using the parameters estimated in Polistes dominulus Christ are compared to studies of live wasps to test the validity of the model. Comparing simulated results with a perturbation experiment in nature suggests that feedback relationships establish a system that is robust and resilient against severe disturbance. Received: 20 January 1996/Accepted after revision: 27 April 1996     

Unignited High-Pressure Methane Jet Impinging a Pipe Rack: Practical Tools for Risk Assessment

Although the diffusion of its storage and transport under liquefied conditions, nowadays it is common to have methane in gaseous form in several industrial applications. This leads to safety implications to be considered: hazards are linked to both the high-pressure at which the gas is kept and to its flammability. Scenarios where flammable jets impact an obstacle are of paramount importance because of their possible occurrence. Following a numerical approach, literature shows up that their assessment can be reliably performed by means of only Computational Fluid Dynamics tools. However, despite the improvements of computing power, Computational Fluid Dynamics costs still limit its use in daily risk analysts’ activities. Therefore, considering an accidental jet-obstacle scenario of industrial interest, the present work investigates how a pipe rack can influence the development of a high-pressure methane jet. Based on a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis, main achievements of this work are a simple criterion able to identify the situations where the pipe rack does not influence the high-pressure methane jet behavior, therefore allowing to identify the scenarios where simpler models can be used (i.e., analytical correlations known for the free jet situation), and, if present, a simple analytical relationship that roughly predicts the influence of the pipe rack without the need of performing complex Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations.     

A proposed formal structure for assessing bear-human encounters

A formal model for the interaction of bear and hiker populations in national parks is developed. A number of alternative interactive scenarios are identified and some specific cases explored in detail. Some examples of the insights to be gained by the use of such a formal structure by park managers charged with the dual mandate of preservation of fauna and provision of safe recreational opportunities are presented. The entire problem is then discussed within the context of the more general tragedy of the commons problem.     

流域生态补偿机制的进化博弈分析

利用进化博弈的复制动态方法,建立流域生态补偿的进化博弈模型,研究利益相关者基于利益因素的动态博弈特征。结果表明,在上下游的"环境责任协议"制度中引入激励机制—监督惩罚成本后,流域生态补偿机制中的利益相关者最终进化成哪种策略取决于对下游地区补偿不能及时到位的行为的惩罚力度(即监督惩罚成本的大小)、下游地区对上游地区的生态补偿量以及上游因损害生态资源而给下游地区的赔偿量。通过调整这三个关键因素,可促使(保护,补偿)成为纳什均衡,从而有效地激励人们从事生态投资并保持这种投资的持续性,实现流域生态环境的可持续发展。     

Numerical study of the effects of Planetary Boundary Layer structure on the pollutant dispersion within built-up areas

The effects of different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) structures on pollutant dispersion processes within two idealized street canyon configurations and a realistic urban area were numerically examined by a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model. The boundary conditions of different PBL structures/conditions were provided by simulations of the Weather Researching and Forecasting model. The simulated results of the idealized 2D and 3D street canyon experiments showed that the increment of PBL instability favored the downward transport of momentum from the upper flow above the roof to the pedestrian level within the street canyon. As a result, the flow and turbulent fields within the street canyon under the more unstable PBL condition are stronger. Therefore, more pollutants within the street canyon would be removed by the stronger advection and turbulent diffusion processes under the unstable PBL condition. On the contrary, more pollutants would be concentrated in the street canyon under the stable PBL condition. In addition, the simulations of the realistic building cluster experiments showed that the density of buildings was a crucial factor determining the dynamic effects of the PBL structure on the flow patterns. The momentum field within a denser building configuration was mostly transported from the upper flow, and was more sensitive to the PBL structures than that of the sparser building configuration. Finally, it was recommended to use the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme, which can explicitly output the needed turbulent variables, to provide the boundary conditions to the CFD simulation.     

基于结构参数响应的内循环流化床流体特性优化数值模拟

流化床是一种结构复杂而能量转化高效的反应器型式,为了实现系统化的内循环流化床优化设计,利用欧拉-欧拉双流体模型构建了不同结构的CFD流化床模型,在分别改变高径比、导流筒与反应器的直径比和底隙高度3个结构因素的情况下,考察流化床内全流场、局部流场、液相运动速度及气含率等气液两相流的响应特性,分析结构因素及操作因素对流体运动的内在影响,阐明工程优化设计的方向.数值模拟结果表明:高径比主要影响气液流动型态,低高径比时容易出现漩涡和返混,工程中应采用导流内构件并重视气体分布装置的合理设计;导流筒与反应器的直径比主要影响液体循环速度,存在一个合理的区间,考虑流动速度与气含率,流化床直径比可取0.6～0.8,最佳取值为0.7;底隙高度影响流化床底泥区的流体运动,应约等于流化床下降区的缝隙长度.CFD模拟可作为污染控制技术工业放大和优化设计的辅助工具.     

特长公路隧道独立排烟道结构高温安全性研究

特长公路隧道的火灾安全尤其是火灾通风排烟问题日益受到特别的关注。苍岭隧道是一座长度超过7 km的公路隧道,根据多方咨询意见,其通风排烟系统采用带独立排烟道的纵向通风模式。为了判断排烟道顶隔板结构在火灾高温下的安全性,以火灾动态模拟软件FDS的分析结果为温度边界条件,通过ANSYS对火灾下与常温下顶隔板的内力及变形进行了对比分析,探讨了顶隔板在火灾下的破坏规律,得出了火灾下顶隔板的临界破坏温度及其沿隧道的纵向破坏范围。     

基于计算机仿真的火灾时人员安全疏散可靠度分析

火灾中的人员疏散是个复杂的过程,受到诸多因素的共同影响,传统的人员疏散可靠度分析常常忽略这些因素之间的相互作用。为更准确地计算出火灾中人员疏散的可靠度,本文以某地铁车站为例,借助人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS与火灾模拟程序FDS,分别得到人员所需安全疏散时间(RSET)和可利用安全疏散时间(ASET)。在此基础上,构造人员安全疏散极限状态方程,利用一次二阶矩理论求得安全疏散可靠概率。由于能够较好地反映疏散过程中各影响因素之间的相互作用,因此,采用本文提出的可靠度分析方法能够得到更合理的结果。     

Ground influence on high-pressure methane jets: Practical tools for risk assessment

High-pressure gaseous methane release is a relevant safety-related problem mainly in the Oil and Gas industry. As well documented, the reason for these safety concerns is connected with the severe consequences of the domino effect subsequent to the possible ignition. In risk assessment activities, estimation of the damage area is of primary importance in order to draw up proper safety guidelines. To do this, loss prevention specialists use quick and well-established numerical tools (i.e., integral models) in their daily activities. However, the presence of an obstacle in the flow field of the jet (e.g., the ground) is a more probable situation to deal with. It is known that integral models fail in this kind of scenario, leading to unreliable predictions. Hence, the present work investigates how an industrial ground surface influences the LFL cloud size of a horizontal high-pressure methane jet. An innovative quick procedure is proposed allowing to determine the height below which the ground begins to influence the LFL cloud size and the extent of such influence. Therefore, this procedure allows practitioners to establish when integral models can be used and when not to use them, and also provides a simple and reliable alternative to their use. These analytical instruments are derived from an extensive computational fluid dynamics analysis performed with Ansys Fluent 19.0.