基于计算机仿真的火灾时人员安全疏散可靠度分析

火灾中的人员疏散是个复杂的过程,受到诸多因素的共同影响,传统的人员疏散可靠度分析常常忽略这些因素之间的相互作用。为更准确地计算出火灾中人员疏散的可靠度,本文以某地铁车站为例,借助人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS与火灾模拟程序FDS,分别得到人员所需安全疏散时间(RSET)和可利用安全疏散时间(ASET)。在此基础上,构造人员安全疏散极限状态方程,利用一次二阶矩理论求得安全疏散可靠概率。由于能够较好地反映疏散过程中各影响因素之间的相互作用,因此,采用本文提出的可靠度分析方法能够得到更合理的结果。     

The role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the negotiation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was signed by some 153 countries at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, represented a singular triumph for the geographically dispersed group of island states and low-lying coastal developing countries, located in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as in the Caribbean, South China and Mediterranean Seas, and known as the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This article focuses on the goals of AOSIS during the negotiations leading up to the adoption of the UNFCCC. For the first time in the history of the United Nations, a group of small states, hitherto relegated to the sidelines, was able to develop a specific negotiating agenda addressing areas which are of overriding concern to them and succeeded in having those concerns incorporated in a legally binding Convention of historic importance. As this article reveals, AOSIS set itself 12 negotiating goals during the negotiating rounds leading up to the UNFCCC, and 10 of these 12 goals were realized. Nevertheless, AOSIS, whose member states are most vulnerable to the possible adverse effects of climate change, was particularly concerned about those provisions of the UNFCCC that were either watered-down significantly, made largely meaningless or excluded altogether. These include: the absence of definite targets or specific timetables for the significant reduction of carbon dioxide by the industrialized countries of the North; the lack of permanent and clear financing arrangements in particular the lack of definitive financial provisions for adaptive response measures to the adverse impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise; and the absence of a specific provision for the implementation of coastal zone management schemes for those countries most vulnerable to sea-level rise. As the UNFCCC moves into the implementation phase, AOSIS should and must build on its past success. To do so, it will need to develop clearly defined initiatives aimed at strengthening the commitments for financing and insurance, and to seek inclusion of a provision to develop and finance coastal zone management schemes for the most vulnerable small states. While the article covers the AOSIS negotiating period up to and including the Earth Summit in June 1992, we nevertheless postulate some possible objectives which the AOSIS group might wish to consider in what is sure to be an intensive post-Earth Summit phase of the UNFCCC, leading up to the first Conference of the Parties of that Convention.     

中国世界遗产的资源管理与可持续发展研究——以登封“天地之中”历史建筑群为例

登封“天地之中”历史建筑群包括8处11项中国古代建筑精华,2010年联合国教科文组织第34届世界遗产大会将其列入《世界遗产名录》。简要介绍了“天地之中”历史建筑群的概况,阐述了其历史背景、建筑特点、文化内涵和遗产价值,分析了遗产资源存在的问题,并从完善管理体制角度出发,对遗产资源的可持续发展提出了相关建议。     

鄱阳湖流域生态环境动态评估及驱动因子分析

鄱阳湖流域生态环境是我国南方地区生态文明建设的重要组成部分.基于Landsat卫星遥感影像,利用主成分分析方法构建遥感生态指数(RSEI)作为生态环境质量评价指标,引入地理探测器模型定量剖析不同影响因素对生态环境空间分异性的影响,分析鄱阳湖流域1990～2020年生态环境质量变化及不同驱动因子的影响程度.结果表明：(1)流域内生态环境质量存在明显的区域性差异,生态质量等级为差和较差地区主要分布在流域中北部的低海拔平原与台地,质量等级为优和良地区主要分布在流域西南部的丘陵山地区域;(2)近30年鄱阳湖流域生态环境整体呈改善趋势,改善地区主要位于低海拔平原区域;(3)人口密度是鄱阳湖流域生态环境质量变化中驱动力最大的影响因子,与城市化发展密切相关的夜间灯光指数因子q值多年来呈升高趋势,鄱阳湖流域生态环境质量受城市化发展的影响越来越大.结果可为鄱阳湖流域生态环境保护工作提供理论依据.     

基于Google Earth Engine分析黄土高原植被覆盖变化及原因

为探明黄土高原植被覆盖时空变化及其原因,基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）,采用Landsat Surface Reflectance data（陆地卫星地表反射率数据）分析了黄土高原1987~2015年间植被覆盖度的时空变化规律,并借助累积量斜率变化率方法对引起植被覆盖度变化的气候和人为因素进行了量化分析.结果表明：黄土高原年均植被覆盖度由1987年的41.78%增加到2015年的53.23%,增速为0.38%/a（P<0.05）.其中,1987~1999年年均植被覆盖度变化趋势不显著（P>0.05）;而退耕还林还草工程实施以来（2000~2015年）,年均植被覆盖度显著增加（P<0.05）,增速达到0.59%/a.由像元尺度分析,黄土高原72.93%的区域植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,其中38.31%的区域增加趋势显著（P<0.05）.植被覆盖度的变化受气候和人为因素的共同影响,以1987~1999年为基准期,气候变化和人类活动对黄土高原2000~2015年间植被覆盖度变化的相对贡献率分别为23.77%、76.23%,人类活动为引起黄土高原植被覆盖度变化的主要原因.退耕还林还草工程极大地改善了黄土高原的植被覆盖状况,但是城市的扩张使得部分地区的植被覆盖呈显著退化现象.     

咸海流域地表水变化长期监测及驱动因素分析

咸海流域是绿色丝绸之路经济带的重要枢纽.但是地表水的逐年减少,对咸海流域的生态环境产生了恶劣的影响,严重阻碍了绿色丝绸之路经济带的建设.本文基于Google Earth Engine(GEE)平台上的1992?—?2018年Landsat影像,采用水体频率的方法提取咸海流域地表水信息,对咸海流域地表水的时空变化进行了研...     

福建土楼夯土墙风驱雨侵蚀损伤预测研究

世界文化遗产福建土楼地处中国东南沿海,年降雨高达1 600 mm,频繁遭受台风和极端天气袭击,每当台风登陆时,狂风挟着暴雨常常侵蚀危害着土楼建筑,风驱雨冲击侵蚀土楼夯土墙已成为土楼建筑的主要损坏形式。论文通过分析风驱雨作用下雨滴的运动形式及降雨特征,采用CFD数值模拟及风洞试验的方法完成数值风洞准确性模拟,以数值风场为基础加入降雨模型,考虑多种雨强和风速相互组合,分析风驱雨对土楼夯土墙的风雨侵蚀影响,揭示了夯土墙风雨侵蚀的内在规律。并通过当地一份气象统计资料作为算例,预测土楼年平均侵蚀损伤量在0.4~2.6 mm之间,所得结果为土楼的维护加固和开发利用提供了科学依据,也为其他生土建筑研究提供借鉴和参考。     

某污水灌区居民胃癌高发的病因研究

某污水灌区居民恶性肿瘤死亡回顾调查发现,胃癌标化死亡率重污染地区明显高于一般污染区及对照区,是全国农村胃癌标化死亡率的3倍.通过污灌区居民临床体检和肠型胃癌的肠上皮抗原——α_2GP 对血清免疫学检测,发现胃癌高发与本地人群慢性萎缩性胃炎的粘膜肠上皮化生有密切联系,环境卫生与环境流行病学调查进一步证明污灌地区居民的胃粘膜肠上皮化生又和灌区污染的井水及稻米中某些矿物油、苯并(a)芘等污染物长期刺激有关,经试验均具有效突变活性.据此,作者初步提示了某污灌区居民胃癌的发生模型.     

地球的脱气过程及对人类生活环境的影响

地球是一个巨大的开放系统。地球的脱气是岩石圈与大气圈进行物质能量交换的重要形式,也对人类生活环境产生重大影响。地球的脱气场所与地质构造关系密切。大规模的脱气在空间上是不均匀分布的,在时间上是非匀速有起伏的。灾变事件往往伴随有气体异常,气体异常溢出有可能酿成灾变。监测重点地区的地球脱气过程,可为防灾减灾及研究地壳活动提供丰富信息。     

Monitoring and assessment of wetlands using Earth Observation: the GlobWetland project

The overall objective of the Ramsar Convention, signed in 1971, is the conservation and wise use of wetlands by national action and international cooperation as a means to achieving sustainable development. This complex and challenging task requires national, local and international bodies involved in the implementation of the convention to rely on suitable geo-information to better understand wetland areas, complete national inventories, perform monitoring activities, carry out assessments and put in practice suitable management plans based on updated and reliable information. In the last years, Earth Observation (EO) technology has been revealed as a key tool and unique information source to support the environmental community in different application domains, including wetlands' conservation and management. In this context, the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with the Ramsar Secretariat launched in 2003 the "GlobWetland" project in order to demonstrate the current capabilities of Earth Observation technology to support inventorying, monitoring, and assessment of wetland ecosystems. This paper collects the main results and findings of the "GlobWetland" project, providing an overview of the current capabilities and limits of EO technology as a tool to support the implementation of the Ramsar Convention. The project was carried out in collaboration with several regional, national and local conservation authorities and wetland managers, involving 50 different wetlands across 21 countries on four continents. This large range of users provided an excellent test bed to assess the potential of this technology to be applied in different technical, economic and social conditions.