生态足迹方法在县级城市的运用--以成都市龙泉驿区为例

本文以成都市1999年和2003年统计年鉴和龙泉驿区统计年鉴1998年和2003年的数据为依据,采用生态足迹的方法,对龙泉驿区1998年和2003年的可持续发展性进行定量评价,通过计算和分析,结果表明龙泉驿区1998年和2003年人均生态足迹均为赤字,且2003年比1998年的生态足迹赤字更为加剧,这反映出人类的生产、生活强度超过了生态系统的承载能力,此区域生态系统处于过度开发利用和压力之下,随着经济的发展,人口的增加,这种趋势还在继续加大.     

改善深圳河水质的补水方案及生态影响初步分析

深圳河旱季天然径流量小而污染负荷高,为了改善河流水质,在削减入河污染物的同时有必要采取补水措施。利用水质模型,计算了不同污水处理率下,分别以污水资源化再生水、珠江口海水和大鹏湾海水为补水水源时,深圳河达到基本不黑臭所需的补水量。讨论了补水方案对河流水质、盐度、水动力条件的改变及其对生态系统的影响。研究表明,引海水对河流生态系统的冲击不容忽视。而污水资源化是较优的补水方案。     

重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务动态变化

借助遥感数据和GIS空间分析技术,选取生物多样性维持、土壤保持、水源涵养和固碳4种生态系统服务建立评估模型,对2000—2010年重庆市域内3个重要生态功能区——三峡库区水源涵养重要区(下称三峡重要区)、秦巴山区水源涵养重要区(下称秦巴重要区)和都市区“四山”生态屏障重要区(下称“四山”重要区)生态系统服务的时空变异特征进行综合研究. 结果表明:①2000—2010年,三峡重要区4种生态系统服务均呈增强趋势. ②秦巴重要区内,生物多样性维持和水源涵养功能总体较好,并且持续增强;固碳功能有所减弱,该时段内固碳功能高等级面积减少了931.90 km2. ③“四山”重要区土壤保持和水源涵养功能有所增强,生物多样性维持和固碳功能略有减弱. ④重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务以中和较高等级分布为主,空间差异较大,异质性明显. 生态系统服务较好区域主要分布在渝东北秦巴山区以及中西部植被覆盖较好的山脊;市域中部长寿、垫江、涪陵等区县生态系统服务相对较弱. 10 a间,重庆市重要生态功能区生态系统服务总体呈变好趋势,但局部地区有所减弱,主要表现为秦巴和“四山”重要区固碳功能的降低.      

An extension of Multiple Greek Letter method for common cause failures modelling

Common cause failure describes a condition where several components share the same source of failure that causes them to fail or become unavailable simultaneously. The objective of this paper is to present an improved approach to common cause failure modelling within reliability analyses. The currently used methods allow one component to share common characteristics with only one group of components, which may be affected by the same source of failure. Therefore, an improved method was developed, where components can be assigned to several groups of components that are susceptible to faulty operation with respect to their similar characteristics. A mathematical derivation of the method is presented and the theory is applied to smaller theoretical samples and to a simplified real example. The results show that the new method enables a more detailed reliability analysis. The results prove that consideration of common cause failures using the improved method may decrease the system reliability compared to traditional common cause failure consideration. The system reliability decreases more, if the redundant components have more similarities and are therefore assigned to several common cause failure groups.     

Ecological issues and risk assessment in China

As a result of economic development and population explosion, global ecological environments have been severely disturbed and markedly changed. An ecological crisis involving desertification, soil erosion, degradation of land quality, loss of biodiversity and global climate change has been brought about all over the world. In order to manage ecosystems efficiently, it is necessary to assess ecological risk at multiple scales. Ecological risk is the probability that a region and/or site will experience defined ecological or environmental problems. In this paper, the ecological risks of soil erosion, desertification, and acid deposition have been assessed on a national scale according to natural and human factors, such as topography, soil, vegetation and climate. This assessment has provided very useful information for ecological environmental management in China.     

基于GIS的页岩气开发生态环境数据管理系统设计

分析了数据管理系统在生态环境领域的应用现状,以及页岩气开发生态环境数据的特性和管理需求,提出了基于地理信息系统和关系型数据库有效集成的数据管理系统框架,实现对页岩气开发区域水环境、土壤环境、环境空气及污染源负荷在时间和空间尺度的分析与评价,指出大数据、物联网技术的运用是系统发展的重要方向.     

Impact of the quality of climate models for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic documentation: a case study from Bolivia

The quality of climate models has largely been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty that may affect the outcomes of species distribution models, especially in the tropics, where comparatively few climatic stations are available. We compared the geographical discrepancies and potential conservation implications of using two different climate models (Saga and Worldclim) in combination with the species modelling approach Maxent in Bolivia. We estimated ranges of selected bird and fern species biogeographically restricted to either humid montane forest of the northern Bolivian Andes or seasonal dry tropical forests (in the Andes and southern lowlands). Saga and Worldclim predicted roughly similar climate patterns of temperature that were significantly correlated. Precipitation layers of both climate models were also roughly similar, but showed important differences. Species ranges estimated with Worldclim and Saga likewise produced different results. Ranges of species endemic to humid montane forests estimated with Saga had higher AUC (Area under the curve) values than those estimated with Worldclim, which for example predicted the occurrence of humid montane forest bird species near Lake Titicaca, an area that is clearly unsuitable for these species. Likewise, Worldclim overpredicted the occurrence of fern and bird species in the lowlands of the Chapare region and well south of the Andean Elbow, where more seasonal biomes occur. By contrast, Saga predictions were coherent with the known distribution of humid montane forests in the northern Bolivian Andes. Estimated ranges of species endemic to seasonal dry tropical forests predicted with Saga and Worldclim were not statistically different in most cases. However, detailed comparisons revealed that Saga was able to distinguish fragments of seasonal dry tropical forests in rain-shadow valleys of the northern Bolivian Andes, whereas Worldclim was not. These differences highlight the neglected influence of climate layers on modelling results and the importance of using the most accurate climate data available when modelling species distributions.     

A heuristic approach to predicting water beetle diversity in temporary and fluctuating waters

An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner.     

High-risk ecosystems as foci for considering biodiversity and ecological integrity in ecological risk assessments

Ecological risk management historically focused on risks to human health and the immediate human environment. Increasingly, societal interest in biodiversity and ecological integrity demands that risk assessors and managers take a broader view of the environment and include non-human species and ecosystems within their realm of concern. The greatest threats to biodiversity in the USA and much of the world are habitat alteration (including conversion, degradation, and fragmentation) and exotic species invasions. This paper reviews and integrates the results of several recent studies (e.g. by The Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund, Defenders of Wildlife, and the National Biological Service) that have identified regions and ecosystems that are highly distinct biologically, are rare or declining, contain high numbers of imperiled species, face immediate threats, and stand to lose considerable biodiversity in the near future. These studies converge on a set of regions that warrant urgent attention from risk managers. Focal species and functional groups of species can be selected within these regions to characterize ecological effects and track recovery of ecosystems along the same axes (e.g. habitat structure, disturbance frequency) that led to biotic impoverishment. The most fruitful approach to risk management ultimately will be one that addresses the most urgent threats at several levels of biological organization, from focal species to communities to ecoregions.     

Glass buildings on river banks as “polarized light traps” for mass-swarming polarotactic caddis flies

The caddis flies Hydropsyche pellucidula emerge at dusk from the river Danube and swarm around trees and bushes on the river bank. We document here that these aquatic insects can also be attracted en masse to the vertical glass surfaces of buildings on the river bank. The individuals lured to dark, vertical glass panes land, copulate, and remain on the glass for hours. Many of them are trapped by the partly open, tiltable windows. In laboratory choice experiments, we showed that ovipositing H. pellucidula are attracted to highly and horizontally polarized light stimulating their ventral eye region and, thus, have positive polarotaxis. In the field, we documented that highly polarizing vertical black glass surfaces are significantly more attractive to both female and male H. pellucidula than weakly polarizing white ones. Using video polarimetry, we measured the reflection-polarization characteristics of vertical glass surfaces of buildings where caddis flies swarmed. We propose that after its emergence from the river, H. pellucidula is attracted to buildings by their dark silhouettes and the glass-reflected, horizontally polarized light. After sunset, this attraction may be strengthened by positive phototaxis elicited by the buildings' lights. The novelty of this visual-ecological phenomenon is that the attraction of caddis flies to vertical glass surfaces has not been expected because vertical glass panes do not resemble the horizontal surface of waters from which these insects emerge and to which they must return to oviposit.