我国城市生态承载力研究进展

从生态承载力角度研究区域资源-生态-环境问题,是当今生态学、地理学和经济学等学科研究的热点与前沿领域之一。依据现有研究成果,阐述了承载力的概念和什么是城市生态承载力,并对生态承载力的研究方法、研究趋势及其研究存在的问题和方法途径及提高城市生态承载力的对策建议进行了简述。     

Characterization and prediction of highway runoff constituent event mean concentration

Highway stormwater runoff quality data were collected from throughout California during 2000-2003. Samples were analyzed for conventional pollutants (pH, conductivity, hardness, and temperature); aggregates (TSS, TDS, TOC, DOC); total and dissolved metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn); and nutrients (NO(3)-N, TKN, total P, and ortho-P). Storm event and site characteristics for each sampling site were recorded. A statistical summary for chemical characteristics of highway runoff is provided based on statewide urban and non-urban highways. Constituent event mean concentrations (EMCs) were generally higher in urban highways than in non-urban highways. The chemical characteristics of highway runoff in California were compared with national highway runoff chemical characterization data. The results obtained in California were generally similar to those found in other states. The median EMC for Pb measured in studies conducted in previous decades was much higher than the current median Pb EMC in California. The lower Pb EMC in California compared to previous highway runoff monitoring is believed to be due to the elimination of leaded gasoline. An attempt was also made to identify surrogate constituents within a general family of water quality categories using Spearman correlations and selected pairs with Spearman coefficients greater than 0.8. The strongest correlations were observed among parameters associated with dissolved minerals (EC, TDS, and chloride); organic carbon (TOC and DOC); petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH and O & G); and particulate matter (TSS and turbidity). Within the metals category, total iron concentration was highly correlated with most total metal concentrations. The correlations between total and dissolved concentrations were all less than 0.8, even between total and dissolved concentrations of the same metals. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of various site and storm event variables on highway runoff constituent EMCs. Parameters found to have significant impacts on highway runoff constituent EMCs include: total event rainfall (TER); cumulative seasonal rainfall (CSR); antecedent dry period (ADP); contributing drainage area (DA); and annual average daily traffic (AADT). Surrounding land use and geographic regions were also determined to have a significant impact on runoff quality. The MLR model was also used to predict constituent EMCs. Model performance determined by comparing predicted and measured values showed good agreement for most constituents.     

Multiple regression models for the lower heating value of municipal solid waste in Taiwan

A multiple regression analysis was used to develop two predictive models of lower heating value (LHV) for municipal solid waste (MSW), using 180 samples gathered from cities and counties in Taiwan during 2001-2002. These models are referred to as the original proposed model (OPM) and the simplified model (SM). The coefficients of multiple determinations for the OPM and SM were 0.983 and 0.975, respectively. To verify the feasibility of the models, a demonstration program based on sampling of MSW in Kaohsiung City was conducted. As a result, the OPM showed superior precision in terms of relative percentage deviation (RPD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), when compared to the conventional models based on the proximate analysis, physical composition and ultimate analysis. The SM was derived by neglecting the three minor physical components used in the OPM. The resulting SM was less precise when compared to the OPM, but it was still acceptable, with a precision level better than the conventional models. It was concluded that the predictability of empirical models could be improved significantly through selection of the appropriate physical components and multiple regression analysis.     

Identifying the Institutional Decision Process to Introduce Decentralized Sanitation in the City of Kunming (China)

We conducted a study of the institutional barriers to introducing urine source separation in the urban area of Kunming, China. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis, we constructed stakeholder diagrams showing the relative importance of decision-making power and (positive) interest in the topic. A hypothetical decision-making process for the urban case was derived based on a successful pilot project in a periurban area. All our results were evaluated by the stakeholders. We concluded that although a number of primary stakeholders have a large interest in testing urine source separation also in an urban context, most of the key stakeholders would be reluctant to this idea. However, the success in the periurban area showed that even a single, well-received pilot project can trigger the process of broad dissemination of new technologies. Whereas the institutional setting for such a pilot project is favorable in Kunming, a major challenge will be to adapt the technology to the demands of an urban population. Methodologically, we developed an approach to corroborate a stakeholder analysis with the perception of the stakeholders themselves. This is important not only in order to validate the analysis but also to bridge the theoretical gap between stakeholder analysis and stakeholder involvement. We also show that in disagreement with the assumption of most policy theories, local stakeholders consider informal decision pathways to be of great importance in actual policy-making.     

Ecological Feasibility Studies in Restoration Decision Making

The restoration of degraded systems is essential for maintaining the provision of valuable ecosystem services, including the maintenance of aesthetic values. However, restoration projects often fail to reach desired goals for a variety of ecologic, financial, and social reasons. Feasibility studies that evaluate whether a restoration effort should even be attempted can enhance restoration success by highlighting potential pitfalls and gaps in knowledge before the design phase of a restoration. Feasibility studies also can bring stakeholders together before a restoration project is designed to discuss potential disagreements. For these reasons, a feasibility study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of restoring a tidal freshwater marsh in the Potomac River near Alexandria, Virginia. The study focused on science rather than engineering questions, and thus differed in approach from other feasibility studies that are mostly engineering driven. The authors report the framework they used to conduct a feasibility study to inform other potential restoration projects with similar goals. The seven steps of the framework encompass (1) initiation of a feasibility study, (2) compilation of existing data, (3) collection of current site information, (4) examination of case studies, (5) synthesis of information in a handbook, (6) meeting with selected stakeholders, and (7) evaluation of meeting outcomes. By conducting a feasibility study using the seven-step framework, the authors set the stage for conducting future compliance studies and enhancing the chance of a successful restoration.     

National pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools

The recently-adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will have significant implications for national development planning in both developed and developing countries in the post-2015 period to 2030. Integrated, nationally-owned SDG strategies will be at the centre of national efforts to implement the new sustainable development agenda. The long-run processes and systems perspective that are inherent in the SDGs present complex analytical problems for policymakers and analysts. Scenario analysis and quantitative modelling will be important analytical tools to support national sustainable development planning, and there is an increasingly sophisticated suite of models available to decision makers. This paper reviews and assesses a broad range of different quantitative models that have the potential to support national development planning for the SDGs. The study develops a typology and inventory of 80 different models, and then reviews the comparative strengths, weaknesses and general utility of different models through an initial screening and subsequent multi-criteria analysis of short-listed models. Current gaps in model capabilities are highlighted in the context of providing analytical support for national development planning for the SDGs. While some existing models are particularly relevant, it is unlikely that an ideal model can analyse all SDG targets and variables of interest within a single modelling framework. Top-down ‘macro framework’ models are likely to be more useful for undertaking system-level or economy-wide scenario analysis driven by the national long-term goals and targets, and for exploring trade-offs and synergies among sectors. Bottom-up sectoral models will be able to support far more detailed option-level impact analysis of concrete interventions, technologies and investments. Combining both approaches within an analytical framework will provide a robust approach for analysis and decision-making. The results highlight a range of potential gaps in current modelling capabilities, and provide some new tools to assist with model selection.     

Whose voices count in biodiversity conservation? Ecological democracy in biodiversity offsetting,REDD+, and rewilding

ABSTRACT

Ecological democracy seeks environmentally sustainable ends through broad, active democratic participation. What happens when laws fostering participation in environmental decision-making and biodiversity preservation lead to differing results? What is best for biodiversity may not be what for local citizens believe is best. I examine conflicts and congruencies in the context of Biodiversity Offsetting, REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), and the Rewilding movement. I ask questions that are legal (Who has what legal rights to speak for or against programs that enhance biodiversity?), epistemological (Whose expertise and knowledge matters when scientists and non-scientists don't agree?), axiological (Are some values objectively better, and why?), and normative (Whose opinions about biodiversity should count?). Many people have the right to participate in an ecological democracy: But when protecting biodiversity, who does and should have the right to be heard? I problematize the role that ‘local’ actors play in decision-making and describe the variegated role that experts – particularly biologists – play in ecological democracy when biodiversity preservation matters. To determine whose values and voices should be prioritized, I describe ‘deep equity,’ an axiological and normative groundwork for determining when biodiversity-promoting policies may be preferable even if affected citizens don't agree.     

Between environmental and ecological democracy: theory and practice at the democracy-environment nexus

ABSTRACT

Concepts of ecological and environmental democracy seek to reconcile two normative ideals: ensuring environmental sustainability while safeguarding democracy. These ideals are frequently conceived as being in conflict, as democracy is perceived as too slow and cumbersome to deliver the urgent large-scale collective action needed to tackle environmental problems. Theories addressing the democracy-environment nexus can be situated on a spectrum from theories of ecological democracy that are more critical of existing liberal democratic institutions to theories of environmental democracy that call for reforming rather than radically transforming or dismantling those institutions. This article reviews theoretical and empirical scholarship on the democracy-environment nexus. We find continued theoretical and empirical diversity in the field, as well as vibrant debates on democratising global environmental politics, local material practices, and non-human representation. We argue for stronger dialogue between environmental political theory and empirical, policy-oriented research on democracy and sustainability, as well as further exploration of complementarities between ecological and environmental democracy. We identify four main areas of challenge and opportunity for theory and practice: public participation and populism; technocracy and expertise; governance across scales; and ecological rights and limits.     

The use of terrestrial ecoregions as a regional-scale screen for selecting representative reference sites for water quality monitoring

A process has been developed to select watersheds that are representative of terrestrial ecoregions and that are relatively undisturbed by human activity. Using an existing land classification system at two hierarchical levels of resolution, representative subsets (ecodistricts) of large-scale ecoregions were selected, on the basis of their physiographic, biological, and climatological attributes, to represent the ecoregions. This was achieved using a frequency distribution analysis of existing attribute data and choosing the ecodistrict most closely resembling the most common set of conditions for that ecoregion. Within each ecodistrict, river basins were selected through a best-judgement evaluation of land use, coupled with an assessment of the size and location of each river basin, in order to meet the condition of minimal human impact. Preliminary assessment of water quality data collected from six watersheds selected in this way suggests that the process is effective in targeting regional scale river basins exhibiting the desired characteristics.     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: II. Defining assessment end points,indicators, and functional subregions

The United States Environmental Protection Agency, with support from the US Department of Energy and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, has been evaluating the feasibility of an effects-based (critical loads) approach to atmospheric pollutant regulation and abatement. The rationale used to develop three of the six steps in a flexible assessment framework (Strickland and others, 1992) is presented along with a discussion of a variety of implementation approaches and their ramifications. The rationale proposes that it is necessary to provide an explicit statement of the condition of the resource that is considered valuable (assessment end point) because: (1) individual ecosystem components may be more or less sensitive to deposition, (2) it is necessary to select indicators of ecosystem condition that can be objectively measured and that reflect changes in the quality of the assessment end point, and (3) acceptable status (i.e., value of indicator and quality of assessment end point at critical load) must be defined. The rationale also stresses the importance of defining the assessment regions and subregions to improve the analysis and understanding of the indicator response to deposition. Subregional definition can be based on a variety of criteria, including informed judgment or quantitative procedures. It also depends on the geographic scale at which exposure and effects models are accurate and on data availability, resolution, and quality. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., and Interagency Agreement #1824-B014-A7 with the US Department of Energy and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3903. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.