酸雨pH预测的偏最小二乘回归模型

酸雨pH值受酸性离子[SO4^2-]、[NO3^-]和碱性离子[Ca^2 ]、[NH4^ ]等的影响。这些影响因素之间存在多重相关性。用一般最小二乘回归法建模预测pH值，估计参数存在着很大的误差且物理意义明显不足。应用偏最小二乘回归技术建立pH值预测模型，克服了自变量之间的多重相关性的问题，因而更具有先进性，计算结果更为可靠。以我国17个城市pH值预测为例，探讨偏最小二乘法的优势，并与最小二乘回归法进行了比较。     

青岛市可持发展环境优势与战略对策

作为北京奥运的唯一伙伴城市,面对历史性的机遇和挑战,青岛市在加快建设和发展步伐的同时,坚持人与自然和谐、山海城协调、历史与现代交融、经济社会全面进步的可持续发展原则,不断推进青岛的生态城市建设,可以预见,青岛市完全符合举办一流奥运会的要求将成为现实。     

中国长城沿线生态脆弱性分析及生态保护对策

中国长城沿线是半湿润—半干旱和半干旱—干旱气候的过渡地带,也是农牧业的交错地带,生态极其脆弱,生态压力又大,容易发生生态破坏,而且很难恢复。为了保护中国长城沿线的生态环境,必须调整产业结构,合理布局,采用先进技术,加大投入,提高生态意识,加强法制建设。     

营造可持续发展的生态安全建筑

围绕建筑与全球生态环境问题的关系 ,阐述了建筑对生态环境产生的巨大负面影响 ,已经威胁到全球的生态安全 ;指明生态建筑是建筑走可持续发展之路 ,是实现全球生态安全的必然选择 ,并对生态建筑的实施策略进行了探讨。     

生态安全评价系统及工作程序

全球范围内生态安全形势越来越严峻 ,某些区域生态安全态势已经威胁到人类的生存与可持续发展。生态安全评价研究越来越受到研究人员的关注。笔者从系统工程角度出发 ,提出了生态安全评价系统的新概念 ,介绍了组成生态安全评价系统的 5个要素 ,即评价主体、评价对象、评价目的、评价标准和评价方法 ,并探讨了生态安全评价工作程序 ,将为区域生态安全评价的研究与应用提供理论基础。     

生态城市的数学模型建立

本文首先论述了生态城市的概念和内涵；其次对于目前的生态城市的系统模型和指标体系进行了综述；然后建构了新的生态城市数学模型，重点讨论了建构该模型的理论基础及其指标体系的相关运算；最后指出该生态系统数学模型的理论和实践意义并对今后相关研究进行展望。     

四川盆地农牧区生态失调的综合整治初探

四川盆地农林牧区是处于我省腹心地带，人口稠密，经济发展较快。本文针对该区出现的自然灾害现状，提出该区发展方向，和具体措施，供有关部门领导参考。     

The reversible process concept applied to the environmental management of large river systems

The wetland ecosystems occurring within alluvial floodplains change rapidly. Within the ecological successions, the life span of pioneer and transient stages may be measured in several years or decades depending on the respective influences of allogenic (water dynamics, erosion, and deposition) and autogenic developmental processes (population dynamics, eutrophication, and terrestrialization). This article emphasizes the mechanisms that are responsible for the ecosystem changes and their importance to environmental management. Two case studies exemplify reversible and irreversible successional processes in reference to different spatial and temporal scales. On the scale of the former channels, the standing-water ecosystems with low homeostasis may recover their previous status after human action on the allogenic processes. On the scale of a whole reach of the floodplain, erosion and deposition appear as reversible processes that regenerate the ecological successions. The concepts of stability and reversibility are discussed in relation to different spatiotemporal referential frameworks and different levels of integration. The reversible process concept is also considered with reference to the energy inputs into the involved subsystems. To estimate the probability of ecosystem regeneration or the cost of restoration, a concept of degrees of reversibility is proposed.     

A conceptual model for assessing ecological risk to water quality function of bottomland hardwood forests

Ecological risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating the threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. This report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) of bottomland hardwood riparian ecosystems (BHRE) in the Tifton-Vidalia upland (TVU) ecoregion of Georgia. Previus research has demonstrated that mature BHRE are essential to maintaining water quality in this portion of the coastal plain. The WQF of these ecosystems is considered an assessment endpoit—an ecosystem function or set of functions that society chooses to value as evidenced by laws, regulations, or common usage. Stressors operate on ecosystems at risk through an exposure scenario to produce ecological effects that are linked to loss of the desired function or assessment end point. The WQF of BHRE is at risk because of the ecological and environmental quality effects of a suite of chemical, physical, and biological stressors. The stressors are related to nonpoint source pollution from adjacent land uses, especially agriculture; the conversion of BHRE to other land uses; and the encroachment of domestic animals into BHRE. Potential chemical, physical, and biological stressors to BHRE are identified, and the methodology for evaluating appropriate exposure scenarios is discussed. Field-scale and watershed-scale measurement end points of most use in assessing the effects of stressors on the WQF are identified and discussed. The product of this study is a conceptual model of how risks to the WQF of BHRE are produced and how the risk and associated uncertainties can be quantified.     

灾害生态学问题研究

灾害生态学是从生态进化的角度上研究灾害问题，其目的在于通过对生态灾害的界定，生态灾害成因分析，来寻求防止或减轻生态灾害的有效途径．文章从灾害与生态进化的关系入手，阐述了研究灾害生态学问题的重要意义，提出了当前灾害生态学研究的主要问题，为灾害生态学的研究提供了一条新的思路。