长江经济带农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放的时空特征

利用清单方法核算了1980~2016年长江经济带农业源非二氧化碳（CO₂）温室气体的排放总量和排放强度,分析了不同经济发展情景和农业-环境脱钩状态下长江经济带2030年和2050年的排放情景.研究表明：时间维度上,1980~2016年长江经济带农业源非CO₂温室气体排放总量呈上升趋势,从0.26Gt CO₂-eq上升到0.32Gt CO₂-eq;2030年和2050年在高情景和中情景2种情景下,长江经济带农业源非CO₂温室气体排放量不会达峰,江苏、湖南、重庆、云南、湖北和安徽等六省（市）的单位农地面积排放强度将增加;3种情景下,四川始终为单位农地面积排放强度较低的地区.     

长江经济带城市扩张与经济增长脱钩关系及其空间异质性

论文基于GIS平台及探索性空间数据分析方法（Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA）和脱钩模型,以地级行政单元为对象,分析2000—2013年长江经济带建设用地扩张、经济增长的时空差异及脱钩关系。研究表明：1）近15 a来,长江经济带建设用地扩张与经济增长具有明显的阶段性和区域性。热点分析显示,建设用地增长热点区呈扩散效应,冷点区逐渐缩小。而经济增长的冷、热点区演变格局与建设用地并不同步。2）2000—2013年,长江经济带建设用地扩张与经济增长耦合关系经历了“增长负脱钩、弱脱钩”为主—“弱脱钩”为主—“弱脱钩、增长连结”为主的变化过程。分析表明,近15 a来长江经济带建设用地扩张与经济增长脱钩程度整体趋于优化,其中,负脱钩类型的城市数量降低17.76%,而脱钩类型数量上升11.22%。3）脱钩程度的空间异质性分析显示,长江经济带各时期的城市扩张与经济增长脱钩关系具有弱空间集聚性。总体上,长三角城市群较长江中游、成渝及滇、黔城市群的脱钩程度表现更优。脱钩程度变化机制与城市产业结构、用地效率和用地模式等密切相关。加强土地利用规划管控力度、严格用途管制规则,引导城市精明增长,走内涵式新型城镇化道路是改变经济发展对建设用地扩张依赖的重要途径。     

长江经济带城市生态环境问题与对策研究 ——以南京市为例

党中央、国务院高度重视长江经济带的可持续发展,提出将生态环境保护居于"压倒性的战略地位",凸显了当前长江经济带在生态环境保护方面所面临的巨大挑战.以南京市为研究对象,分析了长江经济带城市在生态环境方面存在的主要问题,从绿色发展、工业污染防治、船舶污染治理、流域污染治理、制度体系等方面,提出了近期推进长江经济带生态环境保护的若干对策建议,供政府职能部门参考.     

基于层次分析法的中原经济区流域水系统健康评价

为了在水资源与水环境双重制约下制订人水和谐发展的政策提供决策支持,以我国中原经济区这一重点开发区域为例,基于层次分析法构建了以水系统自然条件、水系统服务功能及人类活动影响三要素(共计20项指标)为基础的流域水系统健康评价体系,并以2011年作为评价年,将中原经济区的水资源二级区作为基本流域单元对水系统健康状况进行评价. 结果表明:中原经济区9个水资源二级区中,除了淮河上游水资源二级区(3.20分,完全健康状态为5.00分)为基本健康状态、汉江水资源二级区(2.77分)和三门峡至花园口水资源二级区(2.18分)为亚健康状态以外,其余水资源二级区(0.55~1.77分)均为不健康及极不健康状态. 分析显示,人类活动影响是影响中原经济区内各流域水系统健康状况的主要原因,人口众多、工农业开发活动强度大使得其对水资源需求巨大. 部分水资源二级区对地下水资源依赖程度较高,造成不同程度的地下水超采现象. 伴随着高强度水资源利用的是水污染物的高强度排放,部分河流水污染状况严重,甚至在局部地区造成了地下水污染. 这种不健康的状态在中原经济区内由南向北随着水系统自然条件和水系统服务功能的降低呈加重趋势.      

Emergy evaluation and economic analysis of three wetland fish farming systems in Nansi Lake area,China

Emergy and economic methods were used to evaluate and compare three fish production models, i.e., cage fish farming system, pond intensive fish rearing system and semi-natural extensive pond fish rearing system, in Nansi Lake area in China in the year 2007. The goal of this study was to understand the benefits and driving forces of selected fish production models from ecological and economic points of view. The study considered input structure, production efficiency, environmental impacts, economic viability and sustainability. Results show that the main difference among the three production systems was the emergy cost for fish feed associated with their feeding system, i.e., feeding on natural biomass such as plankton and grass or on commercial feedstock. As indicated by EYR, ELR and ESI, it can be clearly shown that the intensive production model with commercial feed is not a sustainable pattern. However, the point is that more environmentally sound patterns do not seem able to provide a competitive net profit in the short run. The intensive pond fish farming system had a net profit of 2.57E+03 $/ha, much higher than 1.27E+03 $/ha for cage fish farming system and slightly higher than 2.37E+03 $/ha for semi-natural fish farming system. With regard to the drivers of local farmer’s decisions, the accessibility of land for the required use and investment ability determine the farmer’s choice of the production model and the scale of operation, while other factors seem to have little effect. Theoretically, the development of environmentally sustainable production patterns, namely water and land conservation measures, greener feed as well as low waste systems is urgently needed, to keep production activities within the carrying capacity of ecosystems. Coupled emergy and economic analyses can provide better insight into the environmental and economic benefits of fish production systems and help solve the problems encountered during policy making.     

Application of the Anthropogenic Allee Effect Model to Trophy Hunting as a Conservation Tool

Trophy hunting can provide economic incentives to conserve wild species, but it can also involve risk when rare species are hunted. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) is a conceptual model that seeks to explain how rarity may spread the seeds of further endangerment. The AAE model has increasingly been invoked in the context of trophy hunting, increasing concerns that such hunting may undermine rather than enhance conservation efforts. We question the appropriateness of uncritically applying the AAE model to trophy hunting for 4 reasons. First, the AAE assumes an open‐access resource, which is a poor characterization of most trophy‐hunting programs and obscures the potential for state, communal, or private‐property use rights to generate positive incentives for conservation. Second, study results that show the price of hunting increases as the rarity of the animal increases are insufficient to indicate the presence of AAE. Third, AAE ignores the existence of biological and behavioral factors operating in most trophy‐hunting contexts that tend to regulate the effect of hunting. We argue that site‐specific data, rather than aggregated hunting statistics, are required to demonstrate that patterns of unsustainable exploitation can be well explained by an AAE model. Instead, we suggest that conservation managers seeking to investigate and identify constraints that limit the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, should focus on the critical governance characteristics that shape the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, such as corruption, insecure property rights, and inadequate sharing of benefits with local people. Aplicación del Modelo Antropogénico del Efecto Allee sobre la Caza de Trofeos como una Herramienta de Conservación     

Evaluating the cost of flood damage based on changes in extreme rainfall in Japan

We estimated the cost of flood damage using numerical simulations based on digital map data and the flood control economy investigation manual submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism in Japan. The simulation was carried out using a flood model incorporating representative precipitation data for all of Japan. The economic predictions, which estimate flood damage caused by extreme rainfall for the return periods of 5, 10, 30 50, and 100 years, are as follows: (1) the cost of flood damage increases nearly linearly with increases in extreme precipitation; (2) assuming that flood protection is completed for a 50-year return period of extreme rainfall, the benefit of flood protection for a 100-year return period of rainfall is estimated to be 210 billion USD; (3) the average annual expected damage cost for flooding is predicted to be approximately 10 billion USD per year, based on the probability of precipitation for a return period of 100 years and assuming that flood control infrastructures will be completed within the 50-year return period and will be able to protect from flooding with a 50-year return period; (4) urban and rural areas are predicted to suffer high and low costs of damage, respectively. These findings will help to derive measures to enhance flood protection resulting from climate change.     

The threat of abandonment in socio-ecological landscapes: Farmers’ motivations and perspectives on high nature value grassland conservation

Future sustainability of the conservation management of socio-ecological landscapes is typically reliant on on-going agricultural management. Such management may be threatened by changes in the drivers of management and the fragility of the stakeholder networks that deliver management. This study examined evidence for the risk of abandonment in a series of case study high nature value (HNV) grassland sites. The work found that the motivation of farmers to participate in the conservation management was typically limited and often marginal. Landowners and conservation stakeholders who relied on partner farmers to manage such sites often struggled to recruit and retain their participation, leading to increased turnover among managing farmers and to some sites being under-managed. Primary reasons for difficulty of recruitment and farmer turnover included a lack of candidate farmers in the local landscape, and the marginal and fluctuating economics of grassland management. A trend towards greater financial incentivisation of farmers was evident, which policy-makers responsible for agri-environment schemes should note, and elsewhere some conservation organisations were seen to be bringing grassland management in-house. Farmers’ motivations to participate in conservation management of such systems may continue to weaken and abandonment may therefore become a significant risk to the successful conservation of such systems. Conservation stakeholders need to foster good relations with their farmer-manager partners and not further depress their limited motivations to participate, as well as consider carefully whether farmer stakeholders are being adequately compensated for their efforts.     

国际粮食贸易背景下的市场整合与虚拟资源流动——以中国巴基斯坦大米市场为例

贸易自由化和区域经济一体化不仅会通过比较优势整合市场、提升效率,还会带来农产品贸易中虚拟资源的流动。以中国—巴基斯坦大米贸易为研究对象,使用两国大米贸易数据,首先检验中巴粮食市场整合程度,其次分析中巴大米贸易带来的虚拟水和虚拟土地的流动。结果表明：（1）中巴之间大米市场已经高度整合,且价格存在长期均衡,但巴基斯坦大米价格比中国波动大,其对中国大米的价格弹性为1.097;“一带一路”倡议带来了巴方大米价格7.8%的下降,增加了穷人的福利。（2）贸易带来了虚拟水土资源的流动。中国累计从巴基斯坦净进口大米354万t,相当于净进口国内52万hm²、巴基斯坦96.4万hm²耕地,以及国内34.4亿t、巴基斯坦101.7亿t水资源。中国应加大技术支持和扩散的力度,具有促进粮食安全,节约全球资源的意义。     

Harnessing the bonanza: economic liberalization and capacity building in the mineral sector

Over the past decade many developing and transition economies have liberalized their investment regimes for mining and privatized formerly state-owned mineral assets. In response, these economies have witnessed increased foreign investment in exploration and development, growth in the number and diversity of mineral projects, and the opening up of new channels for harnessing increased economic and social benefits from development in the minerals sector. The restructuring of fiscal and regulatory regimes to encourage foreign investment, and the associated influx of mining capital, technology and skills, is transforming traditional relationships between mining firms, local communities and the government. This transformation necessitates a re-evaluation of the most effective policy approaches to capture increased economic and social benefits from mineral production. This article considers effective mechanisms for improving the capacity of developing and transition countries to maximize the economic and social benefits of mineral production. Common challenges associated with minerals economies are reviewed. Consideration is given to the opportunities for harnessing foreign direct investment and the possibilities for creating new partnerships between local communities, industry, government, and multilateral development agencies through social investment projects. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for the design and implementation of policy approaches towards harnessing mineral production for economic and social benefit following the liberalization of investment regimes for mining.