突发事件机理体系与现代应急管理体制设计

本文为了增加对突发事件的科学认识,提升应急管理的能力水平,首先对突发事件和应急管理的内在机理进行剖析。通过分阶段、划层次地构建"4L-5S"机理分析模型,将二者划归为统一体系,以理清其逻辑内涵;然后,为顺应时代发展特征,满足应急管理的更高要求,实现应急管理工作从非常态协同应对转为常态化职能管理,对现代应急管理体制加以总体设计。从而,突发事件机理体系设计使得我国的突发事件机理研究逐渐过渡至具有阶段性和层次性,现代应急管理体制设计使得我国应急管理整合出具备现代思维理念的逻辑框架。     

西部复杂性地貌地区消防规划评估与建设研究 ——以凉山州区域为例

城市消防规划作为城市消防安全体系建设的重要依据,是助力城市现代化进程、推动城市综合安全智慧网络形成的重要基石。通过对凉山州各地貌地区消防现状存在问题的分析,结合凉山州的实际情况及全州建设发展多种形式综合性消防应急救援队伍的需要,提出了能满足全州消防安全需求且能够有效指导城市消防建设的相应对策。     

矿山事故中人员不安全行为的风险分析与防范研究

矿山企业生产系统复杂、生产环节多、地质条件复杂多变、生产条件较为恶劣,要求其不断提高自身的应急管理水平和应急响应能力。本文首先对矿山生产事故的特性进行了分析,划分了人的不安全行为的类型,在此基础上建立了矿井事故致因模型,对事故情况下人员的行为特点、矿工的行为与井下应急场所的关系进行了深入探讨。最后,从安全管理和矿山救护队伍建设两个方面提出了控制矿山事故风险的对策。     

Material flow analysis of lubricating oil use in California

Petroleum lubricating oils, used throughout the economy, are distinct among petroleum products in their capacity to be recovered and recycled at the end of their useful life. Used lubricating oil is regulated at the state and federal level because of concerns about environmental impacts arising from improper disposal, although rates of recovery are not known. We present a material flow analysis of lubricants through California's economy in the years 2007–2012. We introduce a novel technique for computing aggregate waste generation from a collection of hazardous waste manifest records, and apply it in order to determine a recovery rate for used oil and to estimate the quantity of oil managed informally in the state. The records also offer a detailed view of the fate of used oils after they are recovered. We find that around 62% of lubricants are recoverable at end of life, of which 70–80% is being recovered. This rate shows a slight downward trend. If the trend is accurate, measures should be taken to improve the performance of the used oil management system. Policy opportunities exist to reduce the quantity of oil managed informally through improving access to responsible used oil management methods. These include increasing the collection of used oil from industrial sources as well as “do it yourself” oil changes, expanding in-state reprocessing capacity, and promoting increased out-of-state reprocessing of used oil. Our methods introduce new possibilities to make use of direct observation in material flow analysis, potentially improving data availability and quality and increasing the relevance of material flow methods in policy applications.     

一种导电混凝土的制备及其电阻率测量

本文综述了导电混凝土的发展以及应用情况，提出了用导电混凝土作为接地材料的设想，并选择氧化铁粉作为骨料，添加适量碳粉配制了一种导电混凝土来验证。通过改变不同的配比制作导电混凝土模型，用四电极法测量其电阻率，得出碳粉比例对其电阻率的影响。     

高压输电系统对通信局(站)危险影响中地电流系数的确定

高压输电系统发生接地短路故障时,会产生一个地电位升,对通信局(站)会危险影响,为了计算这个危险影响的大小,首先能够准确的计算出高压输电系统的地电流系数。本文论述了高压输电系统对通信局(站)危险影响中地电流系数的确定,介绍了地电流系数的定义,并分析了不同危险情况下地电流系数的计算。     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

The difficulties of systematic reviews

The need for robust evidence to support conservation actions has driven the adoption of systematic approaches to research synthesis in ecology. However, applying systematic review to complex or open questions remains challenging, and this task is becoming more difficult as the quantity of scientific literature increases. We drew on the science of linguistics for guidance as to why the process of identifying and sorting information during systematic review remains so labor intensive, and to provide potential solutions. Several linguistic properties of peer‐reviewed corpora—including nonrandom selection of review topics, small‐world properties of semantic networks, and spatiotemporal variation in word meaning—greatly increase the effort needed to complete the systematic review process. Conversely, the resolution of these semantic complexities is a common motivation for narrative reviews, but this process is rarely enacted with the rigor applied during linguistic analysis. Therefore, linguistics provides a unifying framework for understanding some key challenges of systematic review and highlights 2 useful directions for future research. First, in cases where semantic complexity generates barriers to synthesis, ecologists should consider drawing on existing methods—such as natural language processing or the construction of research thesauri and ontologies—that provide tools for mapping and resolving that complexity. These tools could help individual researchers classify research material in a more robust manner and provide valuable guidance for future researchers on that topic. Second, a linguistic perspective highlights that scientific writing is a rich resource worthy of detailed study, an observation that can sometimes be lost during the search for data during systematic review or meta‐analysis. For example, mapping semantic networks can reveal redundancy and complementarity among scientific concepts, leading to new insights and research questions. Consequently, wider adoption of linguistic approaches may facilitate improved rigor and richness in research synthesis.