煤矿区土地修复的生态系统服务功能改善研究

采用3S技术,对我国典型的煤炭资源枯竭型城市石嘴山市煤炭开采区的生态修复前后的生态系统服务进行了分析。采用2001年与2011年两期LandsatETM和TM遥感影像图的人工解译与变化监测,分析了煤矿区的土地利用覆盖变化。并通过建立响应的评价指标体系,对其成功的治理煤矸石山,改造塌陷区,建立煤矿地质公园,将塌陷区改善为生态湿地等活动的生态系统服务功能变化进行了全面定量化评价。研究表明,通过10年的土地修复,采矿迹地的生态恢复能够提高其生态系统服务功能10倍左右,尤其是环境美学功能受到社会广泛认同。     

H2O/CO2污染对煤油燃料超声速燃烧影响数值研究

在纯净空气与H₂O/ CO₂污染空气来流对比试验结果基础上,采用数值计算方法和化学动力学方法,研究了H₂O和CO₂污染组分对煤油燃料超声速燃烧的影响,获得了试验手段难以得到的燃烧室流场参数和性能数据。完成了相应的煤油燃料超声速燃烧室二维数值计算,其中匹配了进口总温、总压、马赫数、氧气摩尔分数和工作当量油气比。将数值计算结果与相应试验测量值进行了对比分析,并结合燃烧室流场数据、性能参数分析了H₂O和CO₂污染的动力学影响、以及对燃烧室性能的影响。研究表明:(1)数值计算结果与实验测量值总体上吻合,两种手段均体现了纯净空气来流时不同煤油当量油气比的燃烧室性能,并反映了一致的“污染效应”影响趋势;(2) H₂O污染、H₂O+ CO₂污染的存在降低了煤油燃料超声速燃烧室性能,体现在燃烧诱导压升、燃烧效率、流向冲量增量的下降,而且随着污染组分含量的增加,燃烧室性能下降越加显著。      

An integrated modeling framework for performing environmental assessments: Application to ecosystem services in the Albemarle-Pamlico basins (NC and VA, USA)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing complexity and interdisciplinary nature of modern environmental problems has necessitated a new generation of integrated modeling technologies. Environmental modelers are now faced with the challenge of determining how data from manifold sources, types of process-based and empirical models, and hardware/software computing infrastructure can be reliably integrated and applied to protect human health and the environment.In this study, we demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that allows us to predict the state of freshwater ecosystem services within and across the Albemarle-Pamlico Watershed, North Carolina and Virginia (USA). The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is a hardware and software parallel-computing interface with pre/post-processing analysis tools, including parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In this application, five environmental models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities: the Soil Water Assessment Tool predicts watershed runoff; the Watershed Mercury Model simulates mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index model predicts physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator predicts fish growth and production, as well as exposure and bioaccumulation of toxic substances (e.g., mercury).Using this Framework, we present a baseline assessment of two freshwater ecosystem services-water quality and fisheries resources-in headwater streams throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico. A stratified random sample of 50 headwater streams is used to draw inferences about the target population of headwater streams across the region. Input data is developed for a twenty-year baseline simulation in each sampled stream using current land use and climate conditions. Monte Carlo sampling (n = 100 iterations per stream) is also used to demonstrate some of the Framework's experimental design and data analysis features. To evaluate model performance and accuracy, we compare initial (i.e., uncalibrated) model predictions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, fish density, and methylmercury concentration within fish tissue) against empirical field data. Finally, we ‘roll-up’ the results from individual streams, to assess freshwater ecosystem services at the regional scale.     

Beyond the cage: Ecosystem modelling for impact evaluation in aquaculture

An ecosystem modelling approach was used in two areas of the Eastern Mediterranean in order to examine the effects of aquaculture on the ecology of the water column. Aquaculture expansion to meet demands of a growing population is followed by concerns about keeping impacts within socially acceptable limits. Primarily the study aimed at investigating the fate of nutrients from finfish culture and evaluating changes in chemical and biological characteristics of the water body. The model used, Aquaculture Integrated Model (AIM), is based on a complex generic biogeochemical model coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic model. Selected areas included a finfish farm in the Northern Aegean, Greece and an aquaculture development area in Vassiliko, Cyprus. Ecosystem effects were evaluated on the basis of scale and importance. Scenarios under different production levels and hydrodynamic conditions were explored at the sites. Model results showed that farm discharges are rapidly dispersed from their point source in addition to a tendency for effluents to accumulate at distances not normally associated directly with farming activity. The wide range of parameters available in the model helped identify parameters more likely to be affected by the farming activities. There was a satisfactory correlation between observed and predicted model outputs. This study demonstrates the importance of approaching aquaculture impacts at an ecosystem level and the utility of a modelling tool to this end.     

Evidence for the dominance of indirect effects in 50 trophic ecosystem networks

Indirect effects are powerful influences in ecosystems that may maintain species diversity and alter apparent relationships between species in surprising ways. Here, we applied network environ analysis to 50 empirically-based trophic ecosystem models to test the hypothesis that indirect flows dominate direct flows in ecosystem networks. Further, we used Monte Carlo based perturbations to investigate the robustness of these results to potential error in the underlying data. To explain our findings, we further investigated the importance of the microbial food web in recycling energy-matter using components of the Finn Cycling Index and analysis of environ centrality. We found that indirect flows dominate direct flows in 37/50 (74.0%) models. This increases to 31/35 (88.5%) models when we consider only models that have cycling structure and a representation of the microbial food web. The uncertainty analysis reveals that there is less error in the I/D values than the ±5% error introduced into the models, suggesting the results are robust to uncertainty. Our results show that the microbial food web mediates a substantial percentage of cycling in some systems (median = 30.2%), but its role is highly variable in these models, in agreement with the literature. Our results, combined with previous work, strongly suggest that indirect effects are dominant components of activity in ecosystems.     

Representing mediating effects and species reintroductions in Ecopath with Ecosim

Ecosystem models play an important role in supporting ecosystem approaches to management. To improve the representation of how ecosystems work, ecosystem models should be able to represent mediating effects (e.g., habitat provision) that species provide to each other as well as species (re)introductions, both common situations that can strongly influence ecosystem dynamics. We examine how such processes can be incorporated into Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), a widely used tool for represent aquatic ecosystems with the potential to support ecosystem-based management. We used the reintroduction of sea otters (Enhydralutris) to the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada as a case study. The model demonstrates how to account for benefits provided by kelp forests by contributing to primary production, increased feeding areas and food availability through prey retention. It also demonstrates how the reintroduction and range expansion of sea otters can be represented in Ecospace, and the implications of these options.     

Adapting the adaptive cycle: Hypotheses on the development of ecosystem properties and services

Ecosystems are dynamic complexes. These dynamics can be described by different ecophysiological parameters and systems theoretical concepts like succession, thermodynamics, information/network theory, resilience, adaptability and the orientor concept. In this paper, different indicators and concepts are linked to Holling's adaptive cycle metaphor in order to derive hypotheses on potential system trajectories. The hypotheses focus on an exemplary temperate forest ecosystem experiencing the adaptive cycle's four phases of exploitation, conservation, collapse and reorganization after an initializing fire event. The different properties are correlated to the number of total system connections and show varying trajectories. Additionally, the provision of selected forest ecosystem services during the different phases is hypothesized and compared to three other land use types.     

Equivalence of the realized input and output oriented indirect effects metrics in Ecological Network Analysis

A new understanding of the consequences of how ecosystem elements are interconnected is emerging from the development and application of Ecological Network Analysis. The relative importance of indirect effects is central to this understanding, and the ratio of indirect flow to direct flow (I/D) is one indicator of their importance. Two methods have been proposed for calculating this indicator. The unit approach shows what would happen if each system member had a unit input or output, while the realized technique determines the ratio using the observed system inputs or outputs. When using the unit method, the input oriented and output oriented ratios can be different, potentially leading to conflicting results. However, we show that the input and output oriented I/D ratios are identical using the realized method when the system is at steady state. This work is a step in the maturation of Ecological Network Analysis that will let it be more readily testable empirically and ultimately more useful for environmental assessment and management.     

Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake

Climate change is likely to impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems via numerous physical and biological mechanisms. This study outlines a framework for projecting potential impacts of climate change on lakes using linked environmental models. Impacts of climate drivers on catchment hydrology and thermal balance in Onondaga Lake (New York State) are simulated using mechanistic models HSPF and UFILS4. Outputs from these models are fed into a lake ecosystem model, developed in AQUATOX. Watershed simulations project increases in the magnitude of peak flows and consequent increases in catchment nutrient export as the magnitude of extreme precipitation events increases. This occurs concurrently with a decrease in annual stream discharge as a result of increased evapotranspiration. Simulated lake water temperatures increase by as much as 5 °C during the 2040-2069 time period, accompanied by a prolonging of the duration of summer stratification. Projected changes include shifts in the timing of nutrient cycling between lake sediments and water column. Plankton taxa projected to thrive under climate change include green algae and Bosmina longirostris. Responses for species at higher trophic levels are mixed. Benthic macroinvertebrates may either prosper (zebra mussels) or decline (chironomids), while fish (e.g., gizzard shad) exhibit high seasonal variability without any clear trend.     

Predictors of occupancy trend across spatial scale

Many explorations of extinction probability have had a global focus, yet it is unclear whether variables that explain the probability of extinction at large spatial extents are the same as those at small spatial extents. Thus, we used nearly annual presence-absence records for the most recent 40 years of a 110-year data set from Palenque, Mexico, an area with ongoing deforestation, to explore which of >200 species of birds have probabilities of extirpation that are likely to increase. We assessed associations between long-term trends in species presence (i.e., detection in a given year) and body size, geographic range size, diet, dependence on forest cover, taxonomy, and ecological specialization. Our response variable was the estimated slope of a weighted logistic regression for each species. We assessed the relative strength of each predictor by means of a model ranking scheme. Several variables associated with high extinction probability at global extents, such as large body size or small geographic range size, were not associated with occurrence of birds over time at our site. Body size was associated with species loss at Palenque, but occurrence trends of both very large and very small species, particularly the latter, have declined, or the species have been extirpated. We found no association between declining occurrence trend and geographic range size, yet decline correlated with whether a species depends on forest (mean occupancy trend =-0.0380, 0.0263, and 0.0186 for, respectively, species with high, intermediate, or low dependence on forest) and with complex combinations of diet and foraging strata (e.g., occurrence of canopy insectivores and terrestrial omnivores has increased, whereas occurrence of mid-level frugivores and terrestrial granivores has decreased). Our findings emphasize that analyses of local areas are necessary to explicate extirpation risk at various spatial extents.