基于模糊评判法的陕西农村公共物品供给模式选择分析

陕西一直实行"以农补工、优先发展城市、优先发展工业"的倾斜性战略政策,使得城乡在资源分配和社会事业发展等方面存在较大的差距,农村发展处于劣势地位,尤其是农村公共物品未能得到有效供给,其供给主要是采取以政府为主导的模式。研究利用陕西农村1990-2008年的时间序列统计数据,通过构建陕西农村经济发展的9个评判指标并对其分别赋予不同的隶属度,运用模糊评判法,对陕西农村公共物品供给的经济发展阶段进行了定量评判。实证研究表明,自20世纪90年代以来,陕西农村地区整体上处于经济发展的第二个阶段,即经济发展的成长阶段。因此,陕西应主要采取以政府为主导型的农村公共物品供给模式,而私人(市场)供给只能作为农村公共物品供给的少许补充。农村公共物品供给模式应根据经济发展阶段作出选择,以期实现各个时期农村公共物品供给的最优化:考虑不同地区农民的需求意愿,改革"一刀切"的供给模式;扭转农民负担部分公共物品供给成本的局面。     

Probability of intellectual disability is associated with soil concentrations of arsenic and lead

Background

The association between metals in water and soil and adverse child neurologic outcomes has focused on the singular effect of lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). This study describes the complex association between soil concentrations of As combined with Pb and the probability of intellectual disability (ID) in children.

Methods

We used a retrospective cohort design with 3988 mother child pairs who were insured by Medicaid and lived during pregnancy and early childhood in South Carolina between 1/1/97 and 12/31/02. The children were followed until 6/1/08, using computerized service files, to identify the diagnosis of ID in medical records and verified by either school placement or disability service records. The soil was sampled using a uniform grid and analyzed for eight metals. The metal concentrations were interpolated using Bayesian Kriging to estimate concentration at individual residences.

Results

The probability of ID increased for increasing concentrations of As and Pb in the soil. The Odds Ratio for ID, for one unit change in As was 1.130 (95% confidence interval 1.048-1.218) for Pb was 1.002 (95% confidence interval 1.000-1.004). We identified effect modification for the infants based on their birth weight for gestational age status and only infants who were normal size for their gestational age had increased probability of ID based on the As and Pb soil concentrations (OR for As at normal weight for gestational age = 1.151 (95% CI: 1.061-1.249) and OR for Pb at normal for gestational age = 1.002 (95% CI: 1.002-1.004)). For normal weight for gestational age children when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹ and Pb = 200 mg kg⁻¹ the risk for ID was 11% and when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹and Pb = 400 mg kg⁻¹ the probability of ID was 65%.

Conclusion

The probability of ID is significantly associated with the interaction between Pb and As for normal weight for gestational age infants.     

Biomarker responsiveness in different tissues of caged Ruditapes philippinarum and its use within an integrated sediment quality assessment

Biomarkers comprising activities of biotransformation enzymes (ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase -EROD-, dibenzylfluorescein dealkylase -DBF-, glutathione S-transferase -GST), antioxidant enzymes (glutathione reductase -GR- and glutathione peroxidase -GPX), lipid peroxidation -LPO- and DNA strand breaks were analyzed in the clam Ruditapes philippinarum caged at Cádiz Bay, Santander Bay and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (LPGC) Port (Spain). Sediments were characterized. Digestive gland was the most sensitive tissue to sediment contamination. In Cádiz Bay, changes in LPO regarding day 0 were related with metals. In LPGC Port, DBF, EROD, and GST activity responses suggested the presence of undetermined contaminants which might have led to DNA damage. In Santander Bay, PAHs were related with EROD activity, organic and metal contamination was found to be associated with GR and GST activities and DNA damage presented significant (p < 0.05) induction. R. philippinarum was sensitive to sediment contamination at biochemical level. Biomarkers allowed chemical exposure and sediment quality assessment.     

Evaluating and reducing a model of radiocaesium soil-plant uptake

An existing model of radiocaesium transfer to grasses was extended to include wheat and barley and parameterised using data from a wide range of soils and contact times. The model structure was revised and evaluated using a subset of the available data which was not used for model parameterisation. The resulting model was then used as a basis for systematic model reduction to test the utility of the model components. This analysis suggested that the use of 4 model variables (relating to radiocaesium adsorption on organic matter and the pH sensitivity of soil solution potassium concentration) and 1 model input (pH) are not required. The results of this analysis were used to develop a reduced model which was further evaluated in terms of comparisons to observations. The reduced model had an improved empirical performance and fewer adjustable parameters and soil characteristic inputs.     

The role of toxicology in the evaluation of new agrochemicals

Abstract

The use of agrochemicals like crop protecting agents, veterinary disinfectants, and wood preservatives may result in (un)intentional exposure of the environment, animals and man. This paper deals with current testing strategies to assess the potential health risks for humans exposed to these chemicals during production or application or via consumption of foods containing pesticide residues.

Principles and procedures for safety assessment of pesticide residues in food as developed by WHO/FAO are described. Different types of toxicity studies in mammalian test animal species are discussed and a strategy is outlined in order to characterize the toxicity profile of a compound and the relationship between applied doses and adverse effects. Safety testing of agrochemicals should be carried out in relation to its intended use, and in particular attention will be paid to toxicity testing of residues of pesticides in food. Extrapolation of results from animal studies to humans and the use of safety factors is discussed.

Besides the use of animal protocol studies for safety testing of agrochemicals, the potential use of in‐vitro models derived from organs and tissues of animals is discussed. Data on the in‐vitro metabolism of thiabendazole, aldicarb and alachlor are discussed in order to demonstrate that such data may complement or partly substitute whole animal experimentation.

Principles and procedures for safety testing of residues of agrochemicals in food as applied during the last three decades, constitute a ‘safety‐first’ approach, providing sufficient safety margins for the consumer of foods which may contain low levels of residues of agrochemicals.     

Evaluation and valuation of wildlife resources

Issues of resource conservation and development are essentially about choice between alternative uses of land. Resource evaluation in rural planning has usually been based on assessments of land quality or capability in relation to a variety of alternative uses. In the case of wildlife, choices have to be made as to whether the wildlife resource is worth conserving at all and if so, which sites should be used. Considerable efforts have been made to rationalise, improve and make explicit the way in which choices are made, and this paper reviews the current position and draws attention to issues and developments which could lead to improvements in current practice.     

Assessing national sustainable development strategies: Strengthening the links to operational policy

At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, it was agreed that all countries should develop a national sustainable develop‐ment strategy (NSDS) as a key component of implementing the goals of Agenda 21. Progress has been limited. Few countries have established a formal strategy, and many of the strategies that exist have been only partially implemented. This article proposes an approach that addresses the need to improve existing strategic planning mechanisms. The approach is based on a periodic assessment of existing systems, to evaluate the extent to which they incorporate NSDS principles, and identify areas to be strengthened. The article describes an assessment methodology, presents examples of its use, and discusses ways in which current approaches to NSDS may be complemented by continual review and improvement of existing planning processes.     

A Baumol–Oates approach to solid waste taxation

A national Baumol–Oates tax on waste in Denmark helped achieve a reduction of 26% in net solid waste from 1987 to 1998. The tax, which is levied per ton of waste, was particularly effective as regards the heavier waste streams such as construction waste and garden waste. When it comes to industrial and commercial waste, there are indications that the waste tax is not sufficiently significant to induce changes in behavior, and that except for very waste-intensive enterprises, companies do not seem to be very price sensitive. For household waste, the impact of the tax can be improved where tariffs for garbage collection are weight based, rather than per unit. However, the waste sector is an area in which the price signals are modified and filtered by institutionalized practices in municipal administration, and in which true-cost pricing is not easy to achieve. Hence, the rational choice assumption of environmental economics needs to be supplemented by an institutional dimension to interpret responses to environmental taxes correctly. Received: July 13, 2001 / Accepted: October 2, 2001     

简易石灰石/石膏湿法烟气脱硫技术在连州电厂的应用

在介绍了连州电厂的广东省第一套简易石灰石／石膏湿法烟气脱硫（FGD）系统主要设计参数和工艺流程的基础上，重点对FGD系统在近2年的运动过程中出现的主要问题进行了分析，包括系统与锅炉的相互影响，烟道腐蚀问题，脱硫石膏与灰渣水的混排及吸收塔内搅拌器叶片的损坏等，同时从技术，经济两方面对该套FGD系统进行了总体的评价。     

矿井主通风机叶轮磨损失效的评价

矿井主通风机叶轮严重磨损威胁着矿井安全生产 ,研究主通风机叶轮磨损和正确地评价叶轮的磨损失效 ,对煤矿安全生产具有重大的现实意义。应用气—固两相流动理论分析了主通风机叶轮的磨损部位 ,结论与现场叶轮的实际磨损相吻合。提出了叶轮磨损过程的 3个阶段。利用材料磨损理论分析了主通风机叶轮磨损机理 ,得出了叶轮磨损是以气体动力学磨料的冲蚀磨损为主 ,低应力擦伤型磨料磨损、腐蚀磨损为辅的结论。依据国家标准 ,结合矿井主通风机工作特点 ,从安全角度提出了矿井主通风机叶轮磨损永久失效的判据 ,并给出了判定标准。