不同情境下中国碳排放权交易市场的风险度量

以深圳、湖北、广东、上海及北京5个碳交易中心2015～2020年的日交易数据为基础,设置了Ave、Med、Max、Min4种交易情境,采用TGARCH-VaR模型对不同情境下的碳排放权交易市场风险进行了研究.结果表明,不同情境下碳排放交易市场风险存在差异,各情境的市场稳定性、政策响应度均存在一定规律:Ave情境碳现货收...     

碳交易背景下中国华北地区碳代谢格局变化

碳排放权交易市场作为推进美丽中国建设、实现降碳减污绿色发展的重要手段,成为当前研究的热点问题.为探究碳交易背景下华北地区试点区域及非试点区域碳代谢过程,以城市碳代谢理论为依据,采取投入产出分析和生态网络分析相结合的研究方法.结果表明,北京和天津作为早期交易试点区域,区域从2012年后呈现直接碳排放量稳步下降、隐含碳排放量缓慢增加趋势.试点产业部门直接排放量与隐含排放量变化趋势一致,其中煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业和非金属矿物制品业减排效应明显,而排放量较高的电力、热力的生产和供应业表现为增加趋势.部门隐含碳排放强度与隐含碳排放量变化趋势相似证实部门隐含增加值在交易过程中并未增加.高碳排放部门的隐含碳排放量主要由长度小于6的代谢路径所贡献,因此应重点关注部门间较短路径传递的商品或服务的“清洁化”.在交易政策实施以前,区域产业部门间跨区域贸易较少,表现为低碳排放产品交换;2012年以后,随着京津冀城市群协同发展以及华北地区不断构筑的区域经济发展新格局,促使区域间跨区域和跨部门贸易增加.以碳排放权交易制度为背景,构建识别系统内关键参与者及关键路径的方法体系,可为区域性政策实施及可持续发展提供科学的发展建议.     

The regional economic impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Western Australia

This study analyses the general-equilibrium impacts of an international climate change response policy on the economy of Western Australia (WA), one of the most mining-based and energy-intensive states of Australia. It finds that emissions would fall by up to 11% from the base level in WA. However, such environmental benefits emanate at some costs to the state economy; in terms of foregone gross state product, the costs are up to 3% of the base level. Indeed, the actual costs and benefits depend on the precise design of the climate change response policy as well as on the other policies within which it operates. For example, when emission quota permits are sold to industries and no tradeable carbon credits (i.e. credits for the carbon sequestrated in Kyoto forests) are granted, emissions decline by about 8% and GSP falls by about 3% of the base levels. If carbon credits are tradeable, however, the environmental benefits could be increased and the GSP cost could be reduced substantially. Also, the reduced economic activity caused by emission abatement results in a modest fall in net government revenue, despite the additional revenue from permit sales in some cases. Accordingly, government’s fiscal package surrounding the emission permits would influence the emission abatement impacts on the economy. With regard to the effects on the structure of the state economy, the oil and gas industry suffers only a slight contraction but the energy-supplying sector as a whole contracts substantially. It is therefore not surprising that the impacts on the WA economy of curbing emissions by energy and transport industries alone are quite significant when compared to those resulted from all industries’ compliance with the abatement scheme. It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.     

水泥行业二氧化碳排放统计——以贵阳市为例

本文从水泥行业二氧化碳的排放统计出发,研究二氧化碳排放的重要影响因素、二氧化碳排放的指标体系,从而得出一套水泥行业二氧化碳排放统计的核算方法.以贵阳市为例,从三种不同活动水平的统计数据对水泥行业生产工艺过程中产生的CO2排放量进行估算比较,验证统计核算方法的有效性,为贵阳市乃至全国水泥行业CO2的减排提供一个可行的科学依据.     

碳排放权初始分配方法与问题分析

为了有效减缓气候变化对人类社会可持续发展的威胁,积极有效控制二氧化碳的排放刻不容缓。排污权交易理论的提出与发展为低成本高效率地解决气候变化问题提供了可能。在深入研究排污权交易理论以及对比初始排污权分配的方法基础上,结合国内排污权交易市场与碳金融市场的发展情况,为国内构建成熟的排污权交易市场提出建议。     

从碳排放权交易角度谈治理兰州市大气污染的应用研究

随着城市的发展,环境污染问题日益突出,碳排放权交易作为《京都议定书》认定的碳交易机制,在解决环境污染问题上发挥了重要作用。在分析配额型碳交易在美国的成功应用的基础上,针对兰州市的污染现状,构建兰州市碳排放权交易制度来治理大气污染：核定兰州市大气环境容量,确定总量控制目标;确定交易单位;确立碳排放权初始分配机制;制定交易规则,建立监管机构;政府监管并进行相应的惩罚。     

碳汇交易视角下中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现机制及路径研究

中国亟需通过碳汇交易推动滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现,以解决滨海湿地保护、修复领域内生激励机制不足等问题。本文提出碳汇交易视角下滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现的理论框架,梳理国内外滨海湿地蓝色碳汇交易现状,分析中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇交易存在的问题,探讨碳汇交易视角下中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现机制及路径。结果表明：（1）中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇交易存在法律政策不健全、蓝色碳汇产权归属不清、核算体系不统一、市场交易机制不完善、多种交易风险并存等问题;（2）碳汇交易视角下中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现机制包括确定交易客体、识别交易主体、开展价值核算、建立交易市场、成效分析等方面;（3）碳汇交易视角下中国滨海湿地蓝色碳汇价值实现路径包括完善法律制度及相关政策、明确蓝色碳汇产权归属、建立统一核算标准体系、促进多元主体参与交易、科学制定交易价格、规范交易市场秩序、加强财政支持保障等。     

水生植物生物能在苏州市CO2减排中的作用

苏州市的CO2排放量在逐年上升,CO2减排工作任务艰巨。开发无污染的新能源替代化石燃料是CO2减排的一种思路。苏州作为一个江南水乡城市,水资源丰富,水生植物生长旺盛。主要探讨了水生植物(包括藻类和水葫芦)生物能在苏州市CO2减排中的作用。通过粗略估算,藻类和水葫芦产生的年生物能(折算为标准煤)1 200.35万t,大约占苏州年总能耗的四分之一,即可以减少大约四分之一的CO2排放。因此,水生植物生物能在苏州市CO2减排中具有重要的作用。     

Foresty offsets in emissions trading systems: a link between systems?

An important aspect in the linking of different emissions trading schemes is the degree to which these systems allow (or ban) external offset project categories. The EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) currently allows the use of credits from energy and industry projects developed under the Kyoto Protocol’s Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) but excludes the use of carbon credits from forestry projects for compliance in the EU ETS. Forestry credits generated by the CDM have a limited lifetime and expire at the end of a project’s crediting period, or earlier if the carbon stock for which the credits have been issued ceases to exist. According to the recently adopted amendment of the EU ETS Directive forestry credits will remain to be excluded until 2020. The present article reviews how the New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (Australia), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (US) and the voluntary scheme of the Chicago Climate Exchange integrate forestry offsets into the respective system and how they deal with the risk of losing stored and credited biomass. By comparing the results of different scenarios this article shows how differences in the treatment of forestry offsets could impact the efforts to link various emission trading systems in future.