Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range‐size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red‐list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species’ extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale‐sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1–1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer‐scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid‐measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape‐scale threats to species and ecosystems.     

Protecting the piping plover under section 7 of the endangered species act

Section 7(a)(2) of the Endangered Species Act directs federal agencies to ensure that their actions do not jeopardize the continued existence of endangered and threatened species. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) issues jeopardy or nonjeopardy biological opinions on proposed federal actions that affect endangered and threatened species. We summarize several biological opinions issued by the USFWS to protect the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus). These opinions address federal actions involving hundreds of piping plovers on the Missouri River system and a few piping plover pairs on short stretches of Atlantic coast beach. Some of these opinions are decisive, but most allow the proposed action to proceed conditional upon a lengthy set of reasonable and prudent alternatives to protect the piping plover. These conditions may prove difficult to track and will add to the workload of the USFWS.     

Spatial heterogeneity of vegetation under different grazing intensities in the Northwest Heilongjiang Steppe of China

In northern China, recent degradation of semi-arid grasslands caused by overgrazing is serious. At Green Grassland Village, west of Daqing City in Heilongjiang Province, three grasslands with different degrees of degradation were surveyed. In the survey, a new method of vegetation analysis based on the beta-binomial distribution, was adopted to describe the frequency of occurrence and spatial heterogeneity for each plant species.Chenopodium centrorubrum, Cleistogenes squarrosa and a Carex species were commonly found in the three grasslands. Non-degraded grassland with light grazing was dominated by Arundinella hirta, Filifolium sibiricium, Lespedeza hedysaroides, Potentilla verticillaris, Stipa baicalensis and Thymus serpyllum. These species belong to the erect-type or do not develop large clones under light grazing. These species can be used as indicators of a well-managed grassland in this area. On the other hand, the degraded grassland with heavy grazing was dominated by Artemisia spp. and Euphorbia humifusa var. pilosa. Artemisia spp., E. humifusa var. pilosa, Eragrostis pilosa and Setaria viridis belong to the creeping-type or develop rather large stocks or stolons under heavy utilization. These species increased the spatial heterogeneity in the degraded grassland with heavy grazing.Under degraded conditions, species diversity decreased and spatial heterogeneity of the communities tended to increase.     

Effects of Oxalis pes-caprae L. invasion in olive groves

The present work aimed at studying the effect of Oxalis pes-caprae invasion in the herbaceous understory of olive groves in the island of Lesvos, Greece. The number of species, their biomass and dead plant material production was followed throughout the vegetative period in invaded and non-invaded plots. Species richness in the area invaded by O. pes-caprae gradually declined and was significantly smaller in comparison with the natural vegetation. Although biomass was equal in the invaded and non-invaded areas 1 month after germination, annual net primary production (NPP) was three times smaller in the invaded than the non-invaded area. Moreover, aboveground dead plant material of O. pes-caprae decomposed faster than a mixture of litter species of the natural vegetation. Lower biomass production in combination with increased decomposition rates of O. pes-caprae is expected to lead to reduced soil C sequestration in invaded areas. It was concluded that although O. pes-caprae does not add a new life form or functional type to the invaded herbaceous system it has considerable impacts on the diversity and ecosystem functions in olive groves.     

Nitrogen accumulation and plant species replacement in three salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea

Salt marsh development on the coastal barrier island of Schiermonnikoog (The Netherlands) was compared with two other salt marsh systems in the Wadden Sea. Accretion rate, nitrogen accumulation and changes in plant species composition were investigated using chronosequences. The age of the marsh was estimated from aerial photographs and old maps. In 7230 plots, the elevation of the marsh surface, the thickness of the sediment layer (clay) and the presence of plant species was recorded. In addition, the nitrogen pool was measured at each successional stage. Accretion rates were similar in the three salt marshes. Higher accretion rates were found at younger marshes. A strong linear relationship between nitrogen pool size and thickness of the clay layer was found for the three marshes. The accumulation rate of nitrogen is therefore strongly related to the accretion rate. Thus, more nitrogen is present in the sediment of later successional stages where more clay has accumulated. On the high salt marsh (55 cm+MHT),Ameria maritima disappeared andArtemisia maritima, Juncus gerardi andElymus athericus established at sites with a thicker clay layer. On the low salt marsh (25 cm+MHT),Plantago maritima, Puccinellia maritima andLimonium vulgare disappeared andAtriplex (Halimione) portulacoides established. Apparently, with the accumulation of clay and therefore of nitrogen, tall growing species take over in salt marshes not grazed by livestock.     

The behavioural basis of a species replacement: differential aggresssion and predation between the introduced Gammarus pulex and the native G. duebeni celticus (Amphipoda)

Previous studies have shown that differential predation by males on moulted female congenerics may be largely responsible for the elimination and replacement of the native Irish freshwater amphipod Gammarus duebeni celticus by the introduced G. pulex. Predation of moulted females occurs both shortly after their release from precopulatory mate-guarding and whilst they are being guarded by their mates. In the present study, two hypotheses concerning the underlying cause(s) of the differential predation pattern are tested. Firstly, female G. d. celticus may be more vulnerable to predation than female G. pulex due to the former being released from precopula guarding with the new exoskeleton in a less hardened state. Secondly, G. pulex may be an inherently more aggressive species than G. d. celticus during predatory interactions over guarded females. The first experiment indicated that differential predation was not mediated by species differences in the state of the female exoskeleton at the time of release from precopula by guarding males. The second experiment, however, showed that male G. pulex were significantly more aggressive than male G. d. celticus in attacking both guarding male congenerics and guarded moulted female congenerics. In addition, in defence against predatory attacks, paired male and female G. pulex were significantly more aggressive than paired male and female G. d. celticus. These differences in aggressive behaviour led to a significantly higher frequency of predation on G. d. celticus females than on G. pulex females, and also explains this finding in previous studies. It is concluded that differential predation due to differences in aggressive behaviour may explain the pattern of replacement between these species.     

Voluntary conservation of endangered species: when does no regulatory assurance mean no conservation?

Voluntary conservation agreements are becoming increasingly important in implementing the Endangered Species Act on private land. We analyze when such agreements arise and what level of conservation they generate in the presence of uncertainty about future conservation benefits and irreversibility of habitat loss and species extinction. Our results suggest that the likelihood of an agreement and the resulting conservation levels depend on the background threat of regulation, the cost advantage offered by voluntary agreements, and the availability of assurances regarding future regulation. Under conditions likely to hold in practice, conservation agreements that offer assurances may generate higher levels of conservation and higher net social benefits than agreements that do not offer assurances. However, the resulting level of conservation will not be optimal, and may be lower than that attainable under regulation.     

Ecological responses to reductions in freshwater supply and quality in South Africa’s estuaries: lessons for management and conservation

Fresh water, a fundamental element of all estuarine ecosystems, is South Africa’s most limited natural resource. Recent projections indicate that by the year 2020 the country will be utilizing all its exploitable freshwater sources. Steeply increasing demands by a rapidly growing population on this limited commodity have already resulted in a severe reduction of water supplies to natural users such as estuaries — this trend is predicted to increase in the future. Concurrent with excessive water abstraction, poor land husbandry (e.g. soil erosion) in many catchment basins and pollution (e.g. salinization) in return flows have led to a serious deterioration in water quality. In contrast, a review of estuarine responses to varying flow regimes stresses the strong dependence of local systems on riverine fresh water inputs of adequate quantity and quality. Freshwater dependence is i.a. expressed in: flooding events that scour accumulated sediments, riverine nutrient input to drive estuarine phyto- and zooplankton production, axial salinity gradients that increase habitat and species diversity, and maintenance of open tidal inlets that prevent salinity and temperature extremes and facilitate larval exchange, fish migrations and tidal flushing of salt marshes. Thus, estuarine conservation will have to encompass management of rivers and watersheds and play an increasingly political role in decision processes concerning water allocations among ‘human’ and ‘natural’ users.     

Conservation of the Northern Spotted Owl under the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Development of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was motivated by concerns about the overharvest of late-seral forests and the effects of intensive forest management on the long-term viability of the Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). Following several years of intense political and legal debates, the final NWFP was approved in 1994. Even though the plan evolved with a broad ecosystem perspective, it remained anchored in the Spotted Owl reserve design proposed in 1990. Based on a criterion of stable or increasing populations, a decade later it remains unclear whether the enactment of the NWFP has improved the conservation status of Spotted Owls. The results of intensive monitoring of several Spotted Owl populations for over a decade suggest a continuing range-wide decline even though rates of timber harvest have declined dramatically on federal lands. The cause of the decline is difficult to determine because the research needed to establish cause and effect relations has not been done. One plausible hypothesis is that the owl's life history greatly constrains its rate of population growth even when habitat is no longer limiting. Since enactment of the NWFP, new threats have arisen, including the movement of Barred Owls ( S. varia ) into the range of the Spotted Owl, political pressure to increase levels of timber harvest, and recent changes to forest laws that eliminate the requirement to assess the viability of wildlife populations on U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service lands. At this time is appears that Spotted Owl conservation rests critically on continued implementation of the protections afforded by the NWFP and the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Modelling Ecological Presence–absence Data along an Environmental Gradient: Threshold Levels of the Environment

A methodology for estimating environmental thresholds of binary presence–absence data is presented where the level of the threshold is parameterised. Presence–absence data is fitted to three complementary different models: an independent null-model, a monotonically increasing or decreasing model, and an optimum model. The range of the three models is strictly between zero and one and the models are therefore well suited for modelling presence probabilities. The results of the three models may be combined by using Bayesian model selection methodologies. The proposed methodology is exemplified on observed binary presence–absence data of Bauera rubioides along an elevation gradient. Received: May 2005 / Revised: July 2005 An erratum to this article is available at.