Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.     

Study of high-tech process furnace using inherently safer design strategies (I) temperature distribution model and process effect

High-tech industries, such as those producing semiconductor and TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display), have recently become the most important economic activities in Taiwan. Each of these industries has a complete chain of supply from raw material production, production pre-processing, product manufacturing, to waste handling. Any company in the chain is a critical component, since any accidents of fire, explosion, gas leakage, or power outage would cut off the supply chain, causing inability of continuous operation. In industries of semiconductor and TFT-LCD, great amounts of special gases and chemicals with many machinery equipments are used in the production processes. In cases of accidents or improper installation, this chain of supply, from raw material production, preproduction, product manufacturing, to waste handling materials and equipments may cause severe damages or incidents.This study used the existing model of the horizontal furnace to develop a simulation program. The simulation results were consistent with the existing model, and produced even slightly better results on temperature distribution and temperature sensitivity. The simulation model applied on a vertical furnace could provide data on furnace temperature control for industrial use. Meanwhile, this study also deduced actual temperature control and an ISD strategy, which are consistent with design strategy principles.The validation results on the proposed temperature distribution model suggested that the model can be applied in temperature distribution and sensitivity analysis to obtain adjustment and control models for various heating zones. In the case of a single tool, when processing reduction is 60 pieces, switching off the two heating zones can reduce 44% of power output, for a capacity utilization rate of 93.7% for the entire plant. The application of the proposed temperature control model can reduce power consumption by 121.4 kWh. In addition, with the same number of tools, facilities layouts in two cases have an area difference of 41.4775 m², thus shortening the evacuation time for operators. The experimental results proved that the proposed model has realized the ISD principles of intensification, attenuation, and limitation of effects.     

季节调整分析在城市火灾发生规律研究中的应用

利用样本周期图法定量分析了城市火灾序列的周期性,并实例分析得出了北京市火灾时间序列具有12个月和48个月的周期性。然后采用季节调整法,将火灾时间序列中的季节因子和不规则因子提取出来,得出了经季节调整后的时间序列,从而得到了北京市火灾发生受季节因素影响的大小和城市火灾时间序列的基本发展趋势,大大提高了火灾数据之间的可比性。同时结论可为消防管理部门有针对性地采取消防监督管理措施和科学地安排消防执勤战备提供有力指导。     

Modeling Nutrient Export From Coastal California Watersheds

Nitrate and phosphate export coefficient models were developed for coastal watersheds along the Santa Barbara Channel in central California. One approach was based on measurements of nutrient fluxes in streams from specific land use classes and included a watershed response function that scaled export up or down depending on antecedent moisture conditions. The second approach for nutrient export coefficient modeling used anthropogenic nutrient loading for land use classes and atmospheric nutrient deposition to model export. In an application of the first approach to one watershed, the nitrate and phosphate models were within 20% of measured values for most storms. When applied to another year, both nitrate and phosphate models generally performed adequately with annual, storm‐flow, and base‐flow values within 20% of measured nutrient loadings. Less satisfactory results were found when applied to neighboring watersheds with difference percentages of land use and hydrologic conditions. Application of the second approach was less successful than the first approach.     

Computer‐Aided Negotiations of Water Disputes: An Interdisciplinary Role‐Playing Course

This study examines the evolution of a microworld created in a stakeholder process into educational materials used in a classroom setting. Microworlds have been used to stimulate learning through engagement in classroom and professional settings, but to our knowledge this is the first example that demonstrates utilization of the same process in both settings in the field of water resources, involving collaboration between the educational and professional sectors. An interdisciplinary role‐playing course in Computer‐Aided Negotiations (CAN) of water disputes is used as a case study. Upper‐level undergraduate students of varied academic backgrounds interacted in both the CAN process and river basin management model used in the CAN process as microworlds for one semester. We found evidence of meaningful engagement with both the process and model by all students. This finding has implications for engaging stakeholders without technical backgrounds in CAN processes. Students reported learning gains on surveys and pre/posttest scores improved, although only one item showed a statistically significant increase. During and after the teaching of this course, there was feedback of work products from the students to river basin managers. The course also provides the opportunity to learn the art of collaborative modeling through example and practice. Course materials are available at http://www.hydrologics.net/CAN_Course/.     

Modeling of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer in a Copper Based Heat Sink Application

With the trend towards increasing the speed of processors in smaller sized of computers, there has been considerable interest in heat sink technologies with higher levels of performance and further miniaturization. This work addresses the fundamental heat transfer augmentation question of how to design a copper-based heat sink, when the overall dimensions of the bottom plate or fan are specified. A three-dimensional finite-volume model has been developed and applied to investigate flow and conjugate heat transfer in the copper-based heat sink. The model was produced with the commercial program FLUENT, which allows this nonlinear, highly turbulent problem to be simulated using the k-ε turbulence model. The theoretical model developed is validated by comparing the model predictions with available experimental data. The thermal performance and temperature distribution for the heat sink were analyzed and a procedure for optimizing the geometrical design parameters based on less space occupation and more efficient heat transfer coefficient is presented. Several design examples with different types of cooling methods and manufacturing processes have been analyzed. The reliability and effectiveness in heat spreading of those has been compared. It has been shown that the copper-based heat sink with louvered fins (case No.3) has an optimum design configuration.     

Effects of humic acid on phytodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil simultaneously contaminated with heavy metals

Effects of humic acid on phytoremediation of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil simultaneously contaminated with heavy metals were evaluated.     

曝气生物滤池用于分散型污水处理及其动力学浅析

将曝气生物滤池用于分散型污水处理,分析了反应器在不同水力负荷条件下对污染物的去除效果,同时从动力学角度对反应器作了浅析,总结出一个动力学模型.实验证明,该模型对出水水质预测和水力负荷条件的确定具有一定的工程实践指导作用.     

南湖水体中悬浮物的时空分布特征及环境效应

为探究南湖水体浑浊的原因,通过2018—2019年现场调查,分析了南湖水体中悬浮物时空分布特征、组成、变化规律,并探讨了悬浮物的影响因素及其对水环境的效应。结果表明:南湖水体中总悬浮物(TSS)浓度为29.20~75.20 mg/L,平均值为38.95 mg/L,显著高于国内部分湖泊,且TSS以无机悬浮物(ISS)为主,占比为55.42%~79.25%,平均值高达66.80%;南湖水体中悬浮物的中值粒径以0~10 μm的细小颗粒物为主,占比为45.24%~83.73%,平均值为58.94%,显著高于周边水体;相关性分析表明,南湖水体中TSS浓度与总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度呈显著正相关,说明悬浮物作为营养盐的载体,对南湖水质影响较大。     

Metallurgical analysis of the ‘cause’ arc beads pattern characteristics under different short-circuit currents

Electric arc beads commonly cause large fire and explosion accidents, especially during the powder process industries. During such fires, the original equipment is often severely burned, rendering electrical fire investigation impossible. Therefore, identifying the beads caused by electrical faults through metallurgical investigation is crucial. This study focused on the ‘cause’ of arc beads and determined their pattern characteristics through metallurgical analysis of copper wires with short-circuit currents of 100, 160, 200, and 240 A. According to microstructure characteristics and metallographic knowledge, bead pattern characteristics were divided into six types: hypereutectic (A), dendritic eutectic (B), chilled layer (C), cellular crystal (D), dendritic (E), and coarse columnar crystal (F). Oxide levels of each category were A (4.5%–7.6%) > C (2.0%–3.8%) > B (1.1%–2.4%) > D (1.0%–2.1%) > E (0.6%–1.9%) > F (0.1%–0.7%). When the short-circuit currents were the same, there were a greater number of small particle beads than large ones. As the current increased, the number of distributed beads with a particle size d < 1 mm decreased, with 1 mm ≤ d < 2 mm increased, and with d ≥ 2 mm were stable. Bead size and distribution had a negative linear correlation at 200 A. When the current increased, the proportion of beads with A and C structures gradually decreased, and those with D structures increased to more than 50%. Oxygen content and arc temperature determined the oxide form. These results are vital for electrical fire investigations and provide theoretical support for fire material evidence extraction and cause identification.