经济结构调整的污染减排效应：以COD减排为例

经济结构调整是减少污染物排放的重要手段.为定量分析经济结构调整对污染减排的影响,将全国分为东部、东北、中部和西部4个子区域、工业分为39个行业,以化学需氧量(COD)为例,通过构建模型分析区域结构和行业结构调整对总量减排和排放强度的影响.结果表明,2000～2010年:1中国COD排放量由1445×104t降至1 238×104t,11 a间共排放14 950×104t.其中东部地区排放量最多,占总量的比重约为35.6%.2在工业COD排放量中,造纸及纸制品业排放量最大,占工业COD排放量的35.8%.3四大地区经济结构变化减少COD排放420×104t,使COD排放强度降低1.29%.4工业内部行业结构的变化减少COD排放533×104t,使COD排放强度降低3.1%.研究结果对指导中国经济结构调整、实现节能减排目标具有一定的参考价值.     

需求视角的中国能源消费氮氧化物排放研究

基于经济投入产出生命周期评价(EIO-LCA)模型构建了中国1990—2010年能源消费氮氧化物完全排放矩阵,从需求的角度分析了氮氧化物排放在部门和不同需求间的分布结构,并通过情景模拟深入探讨了最终需求结构变化对氮氧化物排放的综合影响和拉动效应,以期探索中国氮氧化物减排的多元化途径.研究结果显示,1990—2010年中国氮氧化物排放总量从878万t上升到2398万t,历年来由工业部门拉动产生的氮氧化物占总量的比重高达70%左右;由最终消费拉动的氮氧化物排放比重逐年下降,资本形成和出口拉动的氮氧化物排放比重逐年上升.氮氧化物排放强度则从47.0 kg·万元-1降至6.0 kg·万元-1,其中,能源和交通部门的排放强度最高.通过情景模拟可以看出,提高最终消费比重,扩大内需有利于氮氧化物总量减排,尤其是对工业部门的减排效果显著.实现氮氧化物总量减排目标,要求在技术进步之外,积极寻求多元减排措施,以强化减排效果,突出能源和交通等重点部门的氮氧化物防治体系建设,并通过扩大内需优化最终需求结构以促进工业部门氮氧化物减排.     

公路项目环评中低时速单车噪声源强研究

由于缺乏低时速单车噪声源强估算模式,低等级公路项目噪声预测结果常与实际监测结果存在较大偏差。文中通过实测各车型车辆在低时速条件下时速和单车辐射声级(Lmax)数据,运用统计软件分析两者间的关系,并通过实测过往车辆数据进行验证。结果显示沿用《公路建设项目环境影响评价规范》(以下简称《06规范》)中的公式计算低车速源强可能会造成结果偏低,建议采用下列式子估算低车速单车噪声源强:小型车L=21.5 lgV+34.96(15≤V≤63),中型车L=10.4 lgV+59.29(15≤V≤53),大型车15≤V≤48(15≤V≤48)。     

我国人为源气态活性氮排放时空变动特征分析

随着粮食和能源需求的增加,农业生产和化石燃料燃烧带来的活性氮污染越来越成为影响我国环境和人民健康的重要因素之一.通过对2000、2005及2010年全国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的人为源气态活性氮排放总量、单位GDP及单位人均排放量的Moran's I指数和GetisOrd G*i指数进行空间分析,探讨了气态活性氮排放及其强度的时空变动特征.结果表明,全国的气态活性氮排放及其强度呈现明显的空间集聚特征.在空间分布特征上,全国活性氮排放表现为高值集聚分布,其热点主要位于华北平原和长江中下游平原地区;排放强度方面则为高值聚集和低值聚集兼备.通过对3个年份的冷热点比较分析发现,排放强度的冷点地区变化较小,热点地区变化较大.其中,单位GDP排放强度方面,冷点地区处于东南沿海地区,热点地区则由西北地区缩小到四川、甘肃两省;而单位人口排放强度方面,冷点地区范围有所缩减,热点地区则由分散转变为集中分布于京津冀及周边的山西、内蒙古和辽宁等.分析人为源气态活性氮时空分布格局和特征及其形成原因,可为评估和减缓气态活性氮排放对生态环境的影响提供科学基础.     

壳体缓释技术对带壳装药慢速烤燃反应烈度的缓解作用研究

为了研究2种典型壳体缓释技术对弹药慢速烤燃响应烈度的缓解作用,基于试验条件分别建立无缓释设计、侧壁加工应力槽和端盖加工泄压孔的带壳PBX装药慢速烤燃仿真模型,提出使用热分解反应动力学模型和燃烧反应模型模拟计算不同约束条件下带壳PBX装药从开始加热发生热分解反应到点火燃烧以及炸药与壳体耦合作用的烤燃过程的计算方法。研究结果表明：通过侧壁加工应力槽以及端盖加工泄压孔的缓释结构设计,可以有效地降低壳体破裂时炸药内部的压力及反应度,以达到缓解反应烈度的目的。     

1997～2004年中国区域经济与火灾态势的关系分析

中国区域经济发展存在较大差异,相应的火灾,隋况也各不相同,本文通过对1997～2004这8年期间的火灾数据的分析,探讨了火灾发展态势在不同地区的特征,并分析了典型地区的火灾和社会经济发展之间的关系。结果表明,当前情况下,随着经济的发展,我国多数地区的火灾发生态势先升高后降低,最后保持平稳;经济较发达的上海地区的火灾发生率已经越过了“最高峰”而趋于平穗好转的时期,此外,同样是经济较发达北京与天津两地的火灾发生率正处于“最高峰”时期,预计在未来几年内其火灾发展将趋于好转。     

太空环境下锂离子电池热失控与火灾的研究展望

综述了锂离子电池的热失控机理,介绍了由于电池内部电解液、电池隔膜和电极材料分解的链式热反应过程而引发的热失控和火灾现象。同时,讨论了锂离子电池在微重力太空环境中可能产生的烟黑浓度倍增,加速火蔓延,火焰喷射等极端火行为。进而探讨了开展锂离子电池的低压、落塔和抛物飞行等地面实验模拟太空微重力燃烧的方法可行性,建立数值模型预测太空微重力环境下锂离子电池热失控临界条件与火灾行为的必要性,以及如何通过基础研究科学地指导空间站电池热管理和消防系统的设计。     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

Explosion suppression of porous materials in a pipe-connected spherical vessel

To study the suppression of different porous materials on the explosion of combustible gas, some experiments were implemented. The porous materials were categorized into three kinds, including six subcategories, and the explosion suppression characteristics of the thin iron hoop, one-layer porous materials, two-layer composite porous materials, and three-layer composite porous materials were studied and analyzed. The results show that a rarefaction wave appears in the spherical vessel during the rapid development stage of combustion explosion. Further, the thin iron hoop could enhance the gas explosion intensity. And the explosion intensity suppression effect of the porous materials is obvious, the best effects of one-layer, two-layer and three-layer porous materials are from Fe–Ni 10 mm/40 PPI, Fe–Ni 10 mm/90 PPI + Al₂O₃ 10 mm/30 PPI, and Al₂O₃ 10 mm/50 PPI + Fe–Ni 10 mm/40 PPI + SiC 20 mm/20 PPI, respectively. According to the surface morphology of the porous materials, the anti-sintering ability of the three categories of porous materials follows the order of Al₂O₃ > SiC > Fe–Ni. Besides, the thickness and pore size of the combined porous material was changed, which has a great influence on the explosion pressure and the explosion intensity.