近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征

基于洞庭湖流域84个气象站点1962~2013年的逐日气象资料,利用综合干旱指数(CI)对洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时间和空间特征进行分析。结果表明:在过去52 a,区域性干旱强度较强的时段以夏季、秋季、夏秋和秋冬时节为主;区域干旱强度在春季、夏季、夏秋、冬季呈上升趋势;秋冬时节和年干旱强度变化不明显;春夏时节、夏秋时节、秋冬时节和冬春时节的平均干旱强度比春、夏、秋、冬单个季节的平均干旱强度大。小波分析表明,区域干旱强度的周期以10a为主周期,5 a和22 a为次周期。近52 a来,历年干旱站次比主要集中于10%~30%之间,多表现为区域性干旱,以夏季和秋季的干旱范围较大;干旱频率高发时期主要为夏季、夏秋时节和秋季。干旱频率高发地主要以流域的南部山地和北部的洞庭湖平原为主,西北部的山地发生干旱相对较少,衡邵盆地随季节变化干旱频率易发生高低值转换。     

城镇化与工业化对能源强度影响的实证研究——基于截面相关和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型

城镇化、工业化对中国能源强度的影响如何?如何在快速推进城镇化、工业化进程的同时确保节能减排目标的实现?论文以能源强度指标代替传统的能源消费指标来反映能源综合利用效率,并应用考虑截面相关性和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型,使用共同相关效应组均值(CCEMG)估计方法对中国1978-2014年城镇化、工业化与能源强度之间的关系进行分析。研究结果表明:人均实际GDP增长1%,能源强度将会降低0.412%,工业化水平增长1%,能源强度将会上升0.630%,而由于生产消费等经济活动的增加、高度集中化以及规模经济的综合作用,使得城镇化对能源强度的影响并不确定。联系研究结论,本文提出政策建议:我国应加快产业结构升级,转变经济增长方式;构建绿色制造体系,推进"五化"协同发展;推进绿色、循环、低碳发展的新型城镇化建设,提高城镇化质量,提升我国整体的能源效率,确保节能减排目标的实现,推动经济全面、协调、可持续发展。     

长江中游城市群空间联系研究

基于城市流强度模型和城市间相互作用模型,以长江中游城市群27个地级市为研究对象,分析了城市群内的城市辐射能力及其内在的经济联系。结果表明:(1)长江中游城市群整体集聚和辐射能力较弱,区域内中低级城市流强度的城市占多数;(2)城市群内第二、三产业辐射能力存在较大差异,第二产业呈现出较强的辐射能力,而第三产业辐射能力较弱,并且其空间分布相对较为分散;(3)区域中心城市的核心带动作用总体较弱,辐射范围和辐射强度都有待加强;(4)长江中游城市群内城市间空间联系不够紧密,且联系程度空间差异较大。省际城市之间联系贫乏,城市间尚未形成联系紧密的辐射网络。     

Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events

This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress.     

Improvement of the activity of anaerobic sludge by low-intensity ultrasound

This paper aims to study the enhancement effect of low-intensity ultrasound on anaerobic sludge activity and the efficiency of anaerobic wastewater treatment. Dehydrogenate activity (DHA) and the content of coenzyme F(420) were detected to indicate the change of activity of anaerobic sludge induced by ultrasound at 35 kHz. Single-factor and multiple-factor optimization experiments showed that the optimal ultrasonic intensity and irradiation period were 0.2 W/cm(2) and 10 min, respectively, and the biological activity was enhanced dramatically under the optimal condition. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency was increased by ultrasonic treatment and the COD in the effluent was 30% lower than that of the control (without exposure). The hypothetical mechanism of biological activity enhancement by ultrasound was also discussed according to the results.     

Changes in negative air ions concentration under different light intensities and development of a model to relate light intensity to directional change

The purpose of this research was to determine changes in negative air ion (NAI) concentrations produced by plants grown under different light intensities. NAI concentrations were observed and analyzed in an outdoor green space with five plant species (Aloe arborescens, Clivia miniata, Chlorophytum comosum, Opuntia brunnescens, Crassula portulacea) and A. arborescens was then grown under controlled-light conditions in an enclosed space for the subsequent light intensity experiment.     

Technological Progress, Structural Change and China＇s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China＇s declining energy intensity.     

自动喷水灭火系统喷水强度概率分布特性及其控火性能研究

喷水强度是体现自动喷水灭火系统控火能力的重要参数,具有不均匀性和不确定性.传统的喷水强度设计主要考虑喷头的流量和保护面积,没有考虑其分布特性,对系统控火性能的影响.因此本文将喷水强度分布特性引入自动喷水灭火系统的控火性能研究.以公称口径为15 mm的传统下垂型玻璃球洒水喷头的喷水强度分布实验为基础,建立了包含径向距离和喷头工作压力等参数的喷水强度分布模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法获得了喷水强度的概率分布特性.参照不同危险等级场控火所需的喷水强度参数和不同喷头开启个数下的有效控火百分比,分析了喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能的影响.研究结果表明,喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能有重要影响,随径向距离的增加,喷水强度出现较小值的概率增大,控火性能下降,在某些危险较大的场所不能达到控火作用.对于同一危险等级场所,控火性能随着喷头安装间距减小而增强.研究方法可为合理评估喷头适用范围、优化喷头布置提供参考.     

基于数字图像处理技术的金相分析研究

采用和改进了人际交互式图像分割算法Live-wire,对电气火灾中的典型火烧金相图和一次短路金相图进行处理,结合数字形态学操作,精确提取了两类金相图中的典型胞状晶和柱状晶结构;分析和讨论了多种结构描述子对晶格分类的作用,结果表明,离心率和晶格标记方差两个描述子能有效区分两类晶格结构;采用聚类分析和Fisher判别法,实现了对两类金相图的自动分类.     

基于正交试验响应面法的烟气层概率分布计算

为计算随机参数下火灾烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布,该文提出了基于正交试验响应面的可靠度计算方法。通过正交试验表确定分析计算参数组,并借助火灾动力学分析软件计算不同参数组下烟气层的温度和厚度响应,进一步拟合出输入参数和输出参数的响应面函数,在此基础上结合验算点法计算烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布,算例分析表明该方法具有计算精度高、计算量小的特点。