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31.
烈度当量—预测地震灾害的一种新途径 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文给出了预测地震灾害的一种新途径,即:M→Г→Z(M为震级,Г为烈度当量,Z为地震灾害)。烈度当量为一新概念,在震害预测中,它较之于烈度和震级更为有效。其具体方法是:首先利用一些经验公式将震级M换算成震中烈度I_0;其次再计算一次地震造成的总烈度当量(它包括对某一地震造成的不同烈度区进行烈度当量换算和计算不同烈度区的面积);最后在考虑到地震震级、发震时刻、震前地震预报的程度、受灾面积、受灾区人口与经济密度、固定资产及建筑物设防等因素的前提下,预测地震灾害。 相似文献
32.
事故定性分析与事故定量预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
分析了影响事故预测准确的原因,综述了国内外许多学者在事故预测方面所做的努力。指出今后事故预测工作的主要途径是由安全系统工程专家建立计算机支持的决策支持系统(DSS),由安全专家灵活运用这个系统中的计算机辅助研究方法(CAR)。 相似文献
33.
Simon McCarthy Sylvia Tunstall Dennis Parker Hazel Faulkner Joe Howe 《Environmental Hazards》2007,7(3):179-192
Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties. 相似文献
34.
暴雨洪水是威胁人类安全最常见的一种自然现象,特别是特大暴雨所形成的山洪、泥石流,给人们生命安全及财产造成巨大损失.本文针对暴雨降水量大、强度大、范围广的特点.通过对国内外大量高空地面资料进行分析与探索.采用统计分析与成因分析相结合的方法,寻求大气环流异常指标,探讨其发生发展运动规律.文中选用了发生暴雨洪水前期亚欧500百帕大气环流指标作为研究暴雨洪水背景预报的主要物理量. 文中用大量图表实例说明了该方法的可行性与实用性.经过多年实践认识到,要作好预见期较长的暴雨洪水预报,必须结合本地区水文气象特征进行多学科密切合作,充分发挥技术群体优势.文中认为对异常暴雨洪水进行预报是可能的. 相似文献
35.
在万元产值废水排放量这类环境系统中,既有单调递增或单调递减的单调系统,也有前期单调递增后期单调递减的非单调系统。本文研究提出的GTPM(1)步长指数变换建模方法,对于前增后减的非单调系统是非常有效的。应用实例表明,此方法不仅为一控制开辟新途径,也进一步拓宽了灰色预测方法在环境系统中的应用范围。 相似文献
36.
Simon S. McCarthy 《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(2):128-140
With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities. 相似文献
37.
We propose here an improved multi-objective optimisation model that considers eco-environmental water demand (EWD) for allocating water resources in a river basin over the long term. The model considers economic, social, and environmental objectives, and it improves on traditional optimisation methods by emphasizing not only the water demand of the artificial ecosystem but also that of the natural ecosystem. Water resource constraints are considered. The hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms (HGSAA) technique incorporates a genetic algorithm (GA) and a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, which have strong local and global searching abilities, in order to solve the highly non-linear model and avoid local and pre-mature convergence. In the method, the water demands of users in the planning year serve as the basis for long-term optimisation using a forecasting procedure. In this study, the combined forecasting method based on the principle of optimal combination is built to forecast domestic and industrial water demands. The proposed model and method are subsequently used in a companion paper to optimise water allocation in the Haihe River basin in China [An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results 90 (8), 2612–2619]. 相似文献
38.
沈阳市环境空气质量综合预报系统的设计与建立 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
介绍了沈阳市环境空气质量数值预报系统的设计和建立,在原有的统计预报系统中增加了天气预报模式方法,最后将两种方法有机的结合起来,形成了沈阳市环境空气质量综合预报系统. 相似文献
39.
40.
环境空气污染预测预报探讨 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
文章简要回顾了环境空气污染预报的发展历史,阐述了开展污染预报的意义和作用。在此基础上重点探讨了环境空气污染预报的程序,特点和方法,对通常预测方法和优缺点进行了分析,并对其发展趋势作子简单的预测。 相似文献