Ecological effects monitoring in environmental impact assessment: What can it accomplish?

The premise that, strictly speaking, impact monitoring is impossible, is presented and discussed It is shown that a wide range of published objectives for environmental effects monitoring can be seen as special cases of the basic goal of reducing uncertainty in predictions. Monitoring in environmental-impact situations can only be used as a check on one of the two time series required to define impact. Four approaches to generating the other time series required in the difference calculation of impact are discussed, with the conclusion that the best approach relies on process-based simulation models. Impact analysts are encouraged to consider carefully what can and cannot actually be accomplished with environmental monitoring to assist impact detection.     

黑龙江上游“冰坝”灾害分析及预报系统

黑龙江上游经常形成“冰坝”。本文分析了冰坝形成原因，建立了气象、水文、冰情等要素的数据库；通过对冰坝与各相关要素的关系分析，建立了冰坝中长期预报系统的数学模型，为“冰坝”中长期预报和减轻冰坝灾害提供了科学依据和有效方法。     

A common pattern in long-term metals production

A common pattern equation for the production of metals over their entire life is proposed. The equation is tested for five metals namely: copper, aluminum, lead, molybdenum and tungsten which have distinctly different historical spans. Various stages of early and take-off growth are identified and labeled stages I–IV. The very early stage of growth leading to a diminishing in activity appears to be decoupled from the later high growth stages. An approximately 12 year perturbation life cycle is noted in stage III for most metals. Copper and aluminum are not yet in stage IV, nor show any signs of entering this stage in the next 50 years. The pattern equation appears to have generality. A strict interpretation of the various parameters in the pattern equation is not attempted in this article.     

从不稳定能量触发机制探讨突发性灾害

本文通过对各种突发性灾害产生机制的分析，初步建立了不稳定能量蟹良机制模型，指出在实际存在的六种情况下，只有第一种情况下才能发生突发性灾害。     

Numerical study of the effects of Planetary Boundary Layer structure on the pollutant dispersion within built-up areas

The effects of different Planetary Boundary Layer(PBL) structures on pollutant dispersion processes within two idealized street canyon configurations and a realistic urban area were numerically examined by a Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) model. The boundary conditions of different PBL structures/conditions were provided by simulations of the Weather Researching and Forecasting model. The simulated results of the idealized 2D and 3D street canyon experiments showed that the increment of PBL instability favored the downward transport of momentum from the upper flow above the roof to the pedestrian level within the street canyon. As a result, the flow and turbulent fields within the street canyon under the more unstable PBL condition are stronger. Therefore, more pollutants within the street canyon would be removed by the stronger advection and turbulent diffusion processes under the unstable PBL condition. On the contrary, more pollutants would be concentrated in the street canyon under the stable PBL condition. In addition, the simulations of the realistic building cluster experiments showed that the density of buildings was a crucial factor determining the dynamic effects of the PBL structure on the flow patterns. The momentum field within a denser building configuration was mostly transported from the upper flow, and was more sensitive to the PBL structures than that of the sparser building configuration. Finally, it was recommended to use the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino(MYNN) PBL scheme, which can explicitly output the needed turbulent variables, to provide the boundary conditions to the CFD simulation.     

环境空气污染预测预报探讨

文章简要回顾了环境空气污染预报的发展历史，阐述了开展污染预报的意义和作用。在此基础上重点探讨了环境空气污染预报的程序，特点和方法，对通常预测方法和优缺点进行了分析，并对其发展趋势作子简单的预测。     

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making     

A research model--forecasting incident rates from optimized safety program intervention strategies

INTRODUCTION/PROBLEM: Property damage incidents, workplace injuries, and safety programs designed to prevent them, are expensive aspects of doing business in contemporary industry. The National Safety Council (2002) estimated that workplace injuries cost $146.6 billion per year. Because companies are resource limited, optimizing intervention strategies to decrease incidents with less costly programs can contribute to improved productivity. METHOD: Systematic data collection methods were employed and the forecasting ability of a time-lag relationship between interventions and incident rates was studied using various statistical methods (an intervention is not expected to have an immediate nor infinitely lasting effect on the incident rate). RESULTS/SUMMARY: As a follow up to the initial work, researchers developed two models designed to forecast incident rates. One is based on past incident rate performance and the other on the configuration and level of effort applied to the safety and health program. Researchers compared actual incident performance to the prediction capability of each model over 18 months in the forestry operations at an electricity distribution company and found the models to allow accurate prediction of incident rates. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: These models potentially have powerful implications as a business-planning tool for human resource allocation and for designing an optimized safety and health intervention program to minimize incidents. Depending on the mathematical relationship, one can determine what interventions, where and how much to apply them, and when to increase or reduce human resource input as determined by the forecasted performance.