Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical,process-based,and hybrid modelling approaches

The impact of 2 × CO₂ driven climate change on radial growth of boreal tree species Pinus banksiana Lamb., Populus tremuloides Michx. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP growing in the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest of Manitoba (DMPF), Canada, is simulated using empirical and process-based model approaches. First, empirical relationships between growth and climate are developed. Stepwise multiple-regression models are conducted between tree-ring growth increments (TRGI) and monthly drought, precipitation and temperature series. Predictive skills are tested using a calibration–verification scheme. The established relationships are then transferred to climates driven by 1× and 2 × CO₂ scenarios using outputs from the Canadian second-generation coupled global climate model. Second, empirical results are contrasted with process-based projections of net primary productivity allocated to stem development (NPP_s). At the finest scale, a leaf-level model of photosynthesis is used to simulate canopy properties per species and their interaction with the variability in radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit. Then, a top-down plot-level model of forest productivity is used to simulate landscape-level productivity by capturing the between-stand variability in forest cover. Results show that the predicted TRGI from the empirical models account for up to 56.3% of the variance in the observed TRGI over the period 1912–1999. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, the predicted impact of climate change is a radial growth decline for all three species under study. However, projections obtained from the process-based model suggest that an increasing growing season length in a changing climate could counteract and potentially overwhelm the negative influence of increased drought stress. The divergence between TRGI and NPP_s simulations likely resulted, among others, from assumptions about soil water holding capacity and from calibration of variables affecting gross primary productivity. An attempt was therefore made to bridge the gap between the two modelling approaches by using physiological variables as TRGI predictors. Results obtained in this manner are similar to those obtained using climate variables, and suggest that the positive effect of increasing growing season length would be counteracted by increasing summer temperatures. Notwithstanding uncertainties in these simulations (CO₂ fertilization effect, feedback from disturbance regimes, phenology of species, and uncertainties in future CO₂ emissions), a decrease in forest productivity with climate change should be considered as a plausible scenario in sustainable forest management planning of the DMPF.     

Modeling mercury emissions from forest fires in the Mediterranean region

Mercury emissions from forest fires in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea have been estimated on the basis of satellite observations for the year 2006. The assessment has been done by means of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products (MOD12Q1, MOD14A2, MOD15A2, MOD44B). Estimates show that wild fires have burnt 310,268 ha in the Region, affecting by 45% the Mixed Forest and by 37% the Evergreen Needleleaf Forest and the Evergreen Broadleaf Forest. The amount of biomass burned was about 66,000 Mg for the Evergreen Needleleaf Forest, 72,000 Mg for the Evergreen Broadleaf Forest and 196,000 Mg for the Mixed Forest. The total amount of mercury released to the atmosphere in the Mediterranean countries accounted for 4.3 Mg year⁻¹ with Italy, France, Austria, Bulgaria, Algeria, Spain and Croatia being the most contributing countries with annual emission ranging from 330 to 970 kg year⁻¹. The maximum release of Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) and particulate mercury (Hg(p)) in the region occurred in July with 1,218 kg. The uncertainty of our estimates is comparable with that associated to current assessments of mercury emissions from major industrial sources.     

Landscape Character and Fish Assemblage Structure and Function in Western Lake Superior Streams: General Relationships and Identification of Thresholds

As part of a comparative watershed project investigating land-cover/land-use disturbance gradients for streams in the western Lake Superior Basin, we examined general relationships between landscape character and fish assemblage structure and function. We also examined the shape of those relationships to identify discontinuity thresholds where small changes in landscape character were associated with marked shifts in the fish assemblages. After completing a geographic analysis of second- and third-order watersheds in the western Lake Superior drainage, we randomly selected 48 streams along mature forest and watershed storage gradients in 2 hydrogeomorphic regions as our study sites. During the summers of 1997 and 1998, we used electrofishing to sample fish assemblages from each stream. Each of the landscape factors was significantly associated with fish assemblage structure and function based on analysis of covariance. Watershed storage was related to the greatest number of fish assemblage characteristics, but hydrogeopmorphic region and mature forest cover were strongly associated as well. The hydrogeomorphic region also mediated relationships between watershed character and fish assemblages. Discontinuity thresholds for our fish assemblages averaged 11% for watershed storage and 50% for watershed mature forest cover based on piecewise regression analysis. Although many of the landscape–fish relationships might have been manifest through effects on in-stream habitat, our results highlight the importance of management and land-use planning decisions at the watershed and landscape scales.Published online     

Effects of Changing Forest and Impervious Land Covers on Discharge Characteristics of Watersheds

Effects of changing patterns of forest and impervious land covers on hydrologic regimes of watersheds were evaluated for urban and rural areas of the lower Cedar River drainage near Seattle, Washington. Land cover characterizations were used in a spatially explicit hydrology model to assess effects of land covers on watershed hydrology during presettlement conditions (full forest cover), 1991 and 1998. For the presettlement to 1991 period, urban watersheds showed decreases in forest covers (range 63% to 83%) and increases in impervious surfaces (range 43% to 71%). Rural watersheds showed similar patterns but smaller changes, with forest covers decreasing (range 28% to 34%) and impervious surfaces increasing (range 8% to 15%). For the 1991 and 1998 period, changes in forest covers for urban and rural watershed were <24%, with losses in some watersheds and regeneration in others. Impervious surfaces continued to increase, but increases were larger in rural (range 38% to 60%) than in urban watersheds (range 4% to 27%). Flood-frequency curves indicated that discharge rates (m sec^–1) for all watersheds were higher in 1991 and 1998 than historical and suggested that chances for floods increase because of changing land covers. The largest increases in discharge rates were in urban watersheds, with rates for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals being more than two times greater than the rate during historical conditions. Changes in flow regimes were indicated by presettlement discharge levels of less frequent recurrence intervals (10-year and 25-year) occurring in posturbanization times (1991 and 1998) during more frequent intervals (2-year and 10-year). Normalized flows (m yr^–1) of watersheds for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals indicate how flow regimes in 1991 and 1998 can change as functions of different areas of land covers. During 1991 and 1998, abrupt increases in flows occurred when forest covers were low (range 17% to 37%) and impervious surfaces were >46%. In contrast, the lowest flows occurred when forest covers were most extensive (range 59% to 81%) and impervious surfaces were <23%. We conclude that our use of spatial characterizations of impervious surfaces and forested covers in a spatially explicit hydrology model provides a robust approach for revealing how variations in different types and spatial distributions of land covers can affect flood regimes and flows of different watersheds.     

计算机辅助海运安全管理系统技术研究

以海运安全管理的基本理论与机制 ,强调保障安全必须通过管理实现对“人 -机 -环境”系统的有效干预 ,指出已实行数年的海运安全管理体系 (SMS) ,因系统庞大不便使用而妨碍了安全管理效能的发挥 ,而现有的管理信息系统技术对此作为甚小。鉴此 ,以语义Web和RDF技术为核心 ,研发了计算机辅助海运安全管理系统 (CASMS) ,包括海运安全文档知识库系统 (RDMS)、海运安全管理体系文档管理系统 (SMDS)、计算机辅助海运安全审核系统 (EES) ,为实现全面高效准确的SMS文件管理与工作表管理 ,提高海运公司和政府的SMS审核质量 ,实现地区级、国家级网络化安全管理提供了新技术。该技术可普遍用于质量管理体系、职业安全与健康管理体系、环境管理体系等系统及其综合系统。     

Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate--the S-O-S approach

Connecting Multiple Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) methods with SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis yields analytical priorities for the factors included in SWOT analysis and makes them commensurable. In addition, decision alternatives can be evaluated with respect to each SWOT factor. In this way, SWOT analysis provides the basic frame within which to perform analyses of decision situations. MCDS methods, in turn, assist in carrying out SWOT more analytically and in elaborating the results of the analyses so that alternative strategic decisions can be prioritized also with respect to the entire SWOT. The A'WOT analysis is an example of such hybrid methods. It makes combined use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SWOT. In this study, a hybrid method of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal criteria (SMAA-O) and SWOT is developed as an elaboration of the basic ideas of A'WOT. The method is called S-O-S (SMAA-O in SWOT). SMAA-O enables the handling of ordinal preference information as well as mixed data consisting of both ordinal and cardinal information. Using SMAA-O is enough to just rank decision elements instead of giving them cardinal preference or priority ratios as required by the most commonly used MCDS methods. Using SMAA-O, in addition to analyzing what the recommended action is under certain priorities of the criteria, enables one to analyze what kind of preferences would support each action. The S-O-S approach is illustrated by a case study, where the shareholders of a forest holding owned by a private partnership prepared the SWOT analysis. Six alternative strategies for the management of their forest holding and of old cottage located on the holding were formed. After S-O-S analyses were carried out, one alternative was found to be the most recommendable. However, different importance orders of the SWOT groups would lead to different recommendations, since three of the six alternatives were efficient according to S-O-S analyses.     

Understandings of Environmental Quality: Ambiguities and Values Held by Environmental Professionals

The terms used to describe and negotiate environmental quality are both ambiguous and value-laden. Stakeholders intimately and actively involved in the management of forested lands were interviewed and found to use ambiguous, tautological, and value-laden definitions of terms such as health, biodiversity, sustainability, and naturalness. This confusing language hinders public participation efforts and produces calls to regulate and remove discretion from environmental professionals. Our data come from in-depth interviews with environmental management professionals and other stakeholders heavily vested in negotiating the fate of forested lands. We contend that environmental science and management will be more effective if its practitioners embrace and make explicit these ambiguous and evaluative qualities rather than ignore and disguise them.     

Impact of Fencing on the Recovery of the Ground Flora on Heavily Eroded Slopes of a Deciduous Forest

This paper seeks to outline early stages in the recovery of forest ground flora on eroded slopes impacted by recreation activities and to suggest how these data might be applied in the formulation of management policies for forest recreation areas. Based on a fencing experiment in the Sonian Forest near Brussels, we investigated whether, over a 6-year period, the vegetation was able to recover after having been destroyed by recreation use. Short-term trends in overall species composition were already observable during this 6-year study. Species recovery on eroded hills was related to slope, aspect, and soil type. During the considered time scale, the proportion of hemicryptophytes and the number of ancient forest species increased significantly. A downward trend was detected for Ellenbergs nitrogen and temperature indexes and for the proportion of therophytes and pioneer plants of disturbed places. Changes in species frequencies suggest six recovery strategies: early, late, expanding, disappearing, transient, and fluctuating species. Aside from seedling reproduction from overstory influences, Luzula sylvatica appeared to be the most resilient of the species identified in the study since this species has the highest global frequency in our sampling plots and has increased its cover during the study period. Study results indicate that (1) protection from recreation has initiated the recovery of species in the herb layer, but (2) it may take a long time before vegetation previously present in the ground flora may recover in both density and species composition.     

Impacts of Experimentally Applied Mountain Biking and Hiking on Vegetation and Soil of a Deciduous Forest

Many recent trail degradation problems have been attributed to mountain biking because of its alleged capacity to do more damage than other activities, particularly hiking. This study compared the effects of experimentally applied mountain biking and hiking on the understory vegetation and soil of a deciduous forest. Five different intensities of biking and hiking (i.e., 0, 25, 75, 200 and 500 passes) were applied to 4-m-long × 1-m-wide lanes in Boyne Valley Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada. Measurements of plant stem density, species richness, and soil exposure were made before treatment, two weeks after treatment, and again one year after treatment. Biking and hiking generally had similar effects on vegetation and soil. Two weeks after treatment, stem density and species richness were reduced by up to 100% of pretreatment values. In addition, the amount of soil exposed increased by up to 54%. One year later, these treatment effects were no longer detectable. These results indicate that at a similar intensity of activity, the short-term impacts of mountain biking and hiking may not differ greatly in the undisturbed area of a deciduous forest habitat. The immediate impacts of both activities can be severe but rapid recovery should be expected when the activities are not allowed to continue. Implications of these results for trail recreation are discussed.     

Evaluation of the impact of forest reserves on harvesting costs and provincial revenues in ontario

The establishment of forest reserves for the benefit of other resources and other land uses in areas where timber harvesting is taking place constitutes a significant withdrawal of wood fiber annually in Ontario.This article reports on a case study carried out on a representative forest area in northern Ontario where the primary land use is timber extraction. The results projected to the whole province show that the direct cost to the provincial economy of removing these forest lands from timber production is of the order of $2.5 million annually.