Climate change and Ontario forests: Prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity

Institutions play an important role in the adaptive capacity of a system in responding to climate change. This review paper characterizes the status of the collective institutional response (government, industry, First Nation, community, civil society) to climate change in the forest sector of the Canadian province of Ontario, and highlights the presence and nature of inter-institutional networks as part of the response. Based on a synthesis of the commonalities in the public administration and policy literature on tackling wicked problems, and the resilience literature, inter-institutional networks, which foster exchange of different types of knowledge, are an important aspect of enhancing the adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems such as the forest sector. Based on a content analysis of publicly available documents and insights gained from representatives of government, community members and non-governmental organizations, mitigation and adaptations strategies are described. At the provincial level there have been some new innovations in inter-institutional networks, but expansion of the forest stakeholders involved in such networks would further enhance adaptive capacity. In particular, it is important to network with First Nations and other forest-dependent communities who have a heightened vulnerability to climate change. The presence of a collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in the Ontario forest sector.

Cap and trade policy for managing water competition from potential future carbon plantations

Carbon sequestration from reforestation can play a large role in mitigating global climate change. However, resulting interception of rainfall runoff may impose high irrigation, water supply and/or environmental flow costs. This article presents an assessment of water trade policy to manage fresh water supply, carbon sequestration trade-offs for the Murray-Darling Basin. A linked Australian high spatial resolution land use and global integrated assessment framework evaluated plausible and internally-consistent global scenarios to 2050 involving significant carbon planting incentive. Substantial flow loss from increased interception was estimated absent policy to balance carbon water trade-offs. Absent policy to address the trade-off, irrigation opportunity costs was estimated to substantially exceed carbon sequestration economic value in futures with significant carbon sequestration incentive. The value of integrating interception from new carbon plantings into the existing water trade system was estimated at $3.3 billion and $2.0 billion (2050 annual value) for our strong and moderately strong global climate action outlooks with our reference case assumptions. The conclusion that trade provision in policy to cap interception impacts can produce significant benefits in scenarios with significant carbon sequestration incentive remained robust over a very broad set of sensitivities tested with benefit estimated at over $1 billion annually at 2050 even for very conservative assumptions.     

广东省若干典型地方病环境地球化学病因分析

广东省是我国地方病高发省份。鼻咽癌发病率位居全国之首,肝癌发病率也大大高于全国平均水平,仅次于江苏和广西两省;地氟病也有着较广泛分布。前人尤其是流行病学工作者对广东省地方病开展了许多的医学研究,取得了一定的成果,但从环境地球化学的角度进行探讨相对不足,随着研究的深入,科学家发现地方病的发生与当地环境地球化学因素存在密切的关系,文章主要针对广东省存在的典型地方病与环境地球化学背景的关系进行探讨和研究,以期从环境地球化学角度为广东省地方病的防治工作提出新的思路。     

抚顺城区大气悬浮颗粒物污染与呼吸系统疾病死亡率相关性的定量分析

为了定量分析大气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡率的影响,采用单因素泊松(Poisson)回归分析法,研究了辽宁省抚顺市城区TSP浓度变化与市区1999～2003年呼吸系统疾病死亡率的相关关系.结果发现,在消除了时间、气象等因素影响后,滞后4日TSP浓度每增加50μg·m-3,呼吸系统疾病总人群组死亡率相对危险度(OR)增加1.02195(95%CI=1.00195～1.04245),即滞后4日TSP浓度变化造成总人群组呼吸系统疾病死亡率明显增加的超额死亡率为2.195%.抚顺城区大气TSP污染可能是市区居民呼吸系统疾病死亡率增加的原因之一.     

大贵寺国家森林公园野生青檀居群的遗传多样性

利用ISSR分子标记技术对湖北省大贵寺国家森林公园野生青檀（Pteroceltis tatarinowii Maxim．）居群进行遗传多样性分析。用11条ISSR引物对6个青檀居群64个样品进行扩增,扩增片段长度在200bp至3000bp之间,检测到179个位点,其中多态位点165个,多态位点百分率（P）为92．14％。青檀在物种水平上的Nei基因多样性指数（胁）和Shannon信息指数∽分别为0．273和0．423,在居群水平上分别为0．225和0．343,显示出青檀有着较高的遗传多样性。居群间的遗传分化系数（Gsr）为0．192,表明青檀居群间存在着较大的遗传分化;UPGMA聚类分析表明遗传距离与海拔差距有一定的相关性,相邻海拔的青檀居群间遗传距离较近。不同海拔导致的异质生境可能是影响青檀居群遗传分化的主要原因。     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

Influences of canopy structure and physiological traits on flux partitioning between understory and overstory in an eastern Siberian boreal larch forest

Boreal forests play an important role in the global balance of energy and CO₂. Our previous study of elaborate eddy covariance observations in a Siberian boreal larch forest, conducted both above the forest canopy and at the forest floor, revealed a significant contribution of latent heat flux (LE) from the cowberry understory to the whole ecosystem LE. Thus, in the present study, we examined what factors control the partitioning of whole ecosystem LE and CO₂ flux into the understory and overstory vegetation, using detailed leaf-level physiology (for both understory and overstory vegetation) and soil respiration property measurements as well as a multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model. The modeling results showed that the larch overstory's leaf area index (LAI) and vertical profile of leaf photosynthetic capacity were major factors determining the flux partitioning in this boreal forest ecosystem. This is unlike other forest ecosystems that tend to have dense LAI. We concluded that control of the larch overstory's LAI had a relationship with both the coexistence of the larch with the cowberry understory and with the water resources available to the total forest ecosystem.     

Efficient thinning regimes for Eucalyptus fastigata: Multi-objective stand-level optimisation using the island model genetic algorithm

A stand-level optimisation problem formulated to determine a set of efficient thinning regimes satisfying two objectives, i.e. value production for sawlog harvesting and volume production for a pulpwood market, was demonstrated for a Eucalyptus fastigata trial in Kaingaroa Forest, New Zealand. Genetic algorithms were used to estimate the set of efficient thinning regimes (i.e. regimes that occur when it is not possible to increase the achievement of one objective without reducing another) known as a Pareto frontier. Each thinning regime specified a unique combination of initial planting density; frequency, timing and intensity of thinning; final crop number; and rotation length. Specifications for the “best” regime in the Pareto set (i.e. the one that satisfied a balanced trade-off between value and volume production) were similar to those recommended through professional judgment based on pooled long-term field observations from different eucalypt species grown throughout New Zealand. The advantage of Pareto optimality was the ability of not only identifying a unique thinning regime, but equally efficient regimes each providing a different combination of value and volume production. Research on this approach has the potential of being applied to other forest sites, providing there is sufficient re-measurement data to reflect stand growth dynamics.     

Spatial distribution of hexazinone and metabolites in a luvisolic soil

Abstract

The spatial distribution of hexazinone and two primary metabolites were measured in forest soil for two years following the aerial application of a granular formulation, PRONONE 10G, in northern Alberta. Residues were quantified using solid‐phase extraction and capillary gas chromatography. Initial deposition rates of two hexazinone treatments averaged 2.3 ± 0.5 and 4.1 ± 0.8 kg/ha for each triplicated plots. One year after application, residues of hexazinone averaged 0.25 ± 0.09 and 0.40 ± 0.02 kg/ha in 2.3 and 4.1 kg/ha treatment, respectively, in the 0–10 cm surface soil; and were distributed vertically in soil depths of 0–10, 10–20, and 20–30 cm at ratios of 10:11:2 and 10:5:2, respectively, in 2.3 and 4.1 kg/ha treatment. Metabolites A and B amounted to 15 and 30% of hexazinone, respectively. Two years after application, the vertical movement of hexazinone in soil was quantifiable to the 40‐cm depth in both 2.3‐ and 4.1‐kg/ha treatment plots. Trace amounts of hexazinone were detected at 130 cm only in the 2.3‐kg/ha plot, which is likely due to the more freely downward movement of hexazinone to deeper horizons along decayed root channels.