The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count. 相似文献
The use of organic municipal wastes as soil amendments is an increasing practice that can divert significant amounts of waste from landfill, and provides a potential source of nutrients and organic matter to ameliorate degraded soils. Due to the high heterogeneity of organic municipal waste streams, it is difficult to rapidly and cost-effectively establish their suitability as soil amendments using a single method. Thermal analysis has been proposed as an evolving technique to assess the stability and composition of the organic matter present in these wastes. In this study, three different organic municipal waste streams (i.e., a municipal waste compost (MC), a composted sewage sludge (CS) and a thermally dried sewage sludge (TS)) were characterized using conventional and thermal methods. The conventional methods used to test organic matter stability included laboratory incubation with measurement of respired C, and spectroscopic methods to characterize chemical composition. Carbon mineralization was measured during a 90-day incubation, and samples before and after incubation were analyzed by chemical (elemental analysis) and spectroscopic (infrared and nuclear magnetic resonance) methods. Results were compared with those obtained by thermogravimetry (TG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques. Total amounts of CO2 respired indicated that the organic matter in the TS was the least stable, while that in the CS was the most stable. This was confirmed by changes detected with the spectroscopic methods in the composition of the organic wastes due to C mineralization. Differences were especially pronounced for TS, which showed a remarkable loss of aliphatic and proteinaceous compounds during the incubation process. TG, and especially DSC analysis, clearly reflected these differences between the three organic wastes before and after the incubation. Furthermore, the calculated energy density, which represents the energy available per unit of organic matter, showed a strong correlation with cumulative respiration. Results obtained support the hypothesis of a potential link between the thermal and biological stability of the studied organic materials, and consequently the ability of thermal analysis to characterize the maturity of municipal organic wastes and composts. 相似文献
This paper considers distinctions between lognormal and mixture models. Emphasis is placed on two component mixtures where the lower valued subpopulation has a large mixing parameter. The density of this sort of mixture can be easily mistaken for a lognormal density. In order to compare such a mixture to a lognormal it is demonstrated that Galton's two parameter logmodel and Pearson's five parameternormal mixture are special, or limiting, cases of the same general mixture model. Consideration is given to the lognormal threshold parameter in order to devise a tool that can help distinguish mixtures from lognormals. Based on the threshold parameter, piloted procedures can help measure whether or not a curve is friable, in the sense that a brittle curve is better represented as a mixture than as a skewed lognormal. It is also shown that generalizations of Galton's product risk model can be represented interms of the threshold parameter Based on a tool called a curve tensiometer was designed to be applied as a graphical friability check in the ecological context of Fisher's classic Iris data and in the environmental context of a Santa Monica Bay fish consumption study. 相似文献
Objective: This article investigated and compared frequency domain and time domain characteristics of drivers' behaviors before and after the start of distracted driving.
Method: Data from an existing naturalistic driving study were used. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) was applied for the frequency domain analysis to explore drivers' behavior pattern changes between nondistracted (prestarting of visual–manual task) and distracted (poststarting of visual–manual task) driving periods. Average relative spectral power in a low frequency range (0–0.5 Hz) and the standard deviation in a 10-s time window of vehicle control variables (i.e., lane offset, yaw rate, and acceleration) were calculated and further compared. Sensitivity analyses were also applied to examine the reliability of the time and frequency domain analyses.
Results: Results of the mixed model analyses from the time and frequency domain analyses all showed significant degradation in lateral control performance after engaging in visual–manual tasks while driving. Results of the sensitivity analyses suggested that the frequency domain analysis was less sensitive to the frequency bandwidth, whereas the time domain analysis was more sensitive to the time intervals selected for variation calculations. Different time interval selections can result in significantly different standard deviation values, whereas average spectral power analysis on yaw rate in both low and high frequency bandwidths showed consistent results, that higher variation values were observed during distracted driving when compared to nondistracted driving.
Conclusions: This study suggests that driver state detection needs to consider the behavior changes during the prestarting periods, instead of only focusing on periods with physical presence of distraction, such as cell phone use. Lateral control measures can be a better indicator of distraction detection than longitudinal controls. In addition, frequency domain analyses proved to be a more robust and consistent method in assessing driving performance compared to time domain analyses. 相似文献
Increased NOx emission from usage of biodiesel is a burning issue to be dealt with. Many techniques have been adopted to reduce NOx emissions from diesel engines. The present experimental study deals with the analysis of performance and emission characteristics of Cotton Seed oil biodiesel with the addition of natural antioxidant extract of clove. FTIR analysis characterized the antioxidant by the presence of hydroxyl groups denoted by the corresponding wave number. The oxidation stability of the test samples was determined in terms of induction period by means of Rancimat test. The induction periods of the test fuel samples B100, B20, B20+CL1000, and B20+CL2000 were found to be 2.20 h, 2.73 h, 10.19 h, and 11.12 h, respectively. Thus, the addition of Clove antioxidant increased the oxidation stability of the biodiesel. Results show that the addition of antioxidant to biodiesel blend has increased the Brake Thermal Efficiency to a maximum of 4.71% and decreased the Brake Specific Fuel Consumption to a maximum of 6.25% at full-load conditions compared to Cotton Seed biodiesel blend. The addition of Clove extract antioxidant at a concentration of 1000 ppm and 2000 ppm decreases the NOx emission by 23.03% and 26.7%, respectively, at full-load conditions. However, CO emissions increased by 1.12% and 4.49% with the addition of CL1000 and CL2000 to B20, respectively. Similarly, HC emissions increased by 4.19% and 7.35% by the addition of CL1000 and CL2000 to B20, respectively. The increases in smoke with the addition of CL1000 and CL2000 to B20 were 42.48% and 47.71%, respectively. 相似文献