Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

Simulation of scenario characteristics of LPG tank explosion accident and its contribution to emergency planning: A case study

Leakage and explosion of hazardous chemicals during road transportation can cause serious building damage and casualties, and adoption of highly-efficient emergency rescue measures plays a critical role in reducing accidental hazards. Considering a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport tanker explosion accident that occurred in Wenling, Zhejiang Province, China on June 13, 2020 as example, this study proposes a risk assessment framework. This framework recreates the leakage and explosion of the accident process using FLACS v10.9, suggests plans for evacuation, describes the rescue areas of different levels, and explores the influence of environmental factors on the evacuation and rescue areas. The results show that simulated and predicted distributions of fuel vapour cloud concentration and explosion overpressure can provide a reference basis for rapid rescue activities; the characterization of the dynamic effects of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature with respect to the evacuation and rescue areas can be used as theoretical support for on-site adjustment of rescue forces. The role of obstacles can prevent the expansion of the evacuation areas under low wind-speed conditions, and the presence of highly congested obstacles determines the level of the rescue area. The results obtained are important for the risk analysis and the development of emergency rescue measures in case of explosion accidents associated with transportation of hazardous chemicals on high-hazard and high-sensitive road sections.     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

Integrating long-term stewardship goals into the remediation process: natural resource damages and the Department of Energy

The United States and other developed countries are faced with restoring and managing degraded ecosystems. Evaluations of the degradation of ecological resources can be used for determining ecological risk, making remediation or restoration decisions, aiding stakeholders with future land use decisions, and assessing natural resource damages. Department of Energy (DOE) lands provide a useful case study for examining degradation of ecological resources in light of past or present land uses and natural resource damage assessment (NRDA). We suggest that past site history should be incorporated into the cleanup and restoration phase to reduce the ultimate NRDA costs, and hasten resource recovery. The lands that DOE purchased over 50 years ago ranged from relatively undisturbed to heavily impacted farmland, and the impact that occurred from DOE occupation varies from regeneration of natural ecosystems (benefits) to increased exposure to several stressors (negative effects). During the time of the DOE releases, other changes occurred on the lands, including recovery from the disturbance effects of farming, grazing, and residential occupation, and the cessation of human disturbance. Thus, the injury to natural resources that occurred as a result of chemical and radiological releases occurred on top of recovery of already degraded systems. Both spatial (size and dispersion of patch types) and temporal (past/present/future land use and ecological condition) components are critical aspects of resource evaluation, restoration, and NRDA. For many DOE sites, integrating natural resource restoration with remediation to reduce or eliminate the need for NRDA could be a win-win situation for both responsible parties and natural resource trustees by eliminating costly NRDAs by both sides, and by restoring natural resources to a level that satisfies the trustees, while being cost-effective for the responsible parties. It requires integration of remediation, restoration, and end-state planning to a greater degree than is currently done at most DOE sites.     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

A framework for assessing the impact of land use policy on community exposure to air toxics

Our research focuses on the linkage between land use planning policy and the spatial pattern of exposure to air toxics emissions. Our objective is to develop a modeling framework for assessment of the community health risk implications of land use policy. The modeling framework is not intended to be a regulatory tool for small-scale land use decisions, but a long-range planning tool to assess the community health risk implications of alternative land use scenarios at a regional or subregional scale. This paper describes the development and application of an air toxic source model for generating aggregate emission factors for industrial and commercial zoning districts as a function of permitted uses. To address the uncertainty of estimating air toxics emission rates for planned general land use or zoning districts, the source model uses an emissions probability mass function that weights each incremental permitted land use activity by the likelihood of occurrence. We thus reduce the uncertainty involved in planning for development with no prior knowledge of the specific industries that may locate within the land use district. These air toxics emission factors can then be used to estimate pollutant atmospheric mass flux from land use zoning districts, which can then be input to air dispersion and human health risk assessment models to simulate the spatial pattern of air toxics exposure risk. The model database was constructed using the California Air Toxics Inventory, 1997 US Economic Census, and land assessment records from several California counties. The database contains information on more than 200 air toxics at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. We present a case study to illustrate application of the model. LUAIRTOX, the interactive spreadsheet model that applies our methodology to the California data, is available at http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~mwillis/LUAIRTOX.htm.     

An integrated impact assessment and weighting methodology: evaluation of the environmental consequences of computer display technology substitution

Computer display technology is currently in a state of transition, as the traditional technology of cathode ray tubes is being replaced by liquid crystal display flat-panel technology. Technology substitution and process innovation require the evaluation of the trade-offs among environmental impact, cost, and engineering performance attributes. General impact assessment methodologies, decision analysis and management tools, and optimization methods commonly used in engineering cannot efficiently address the issues needed for such evaluation. The conventional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) process often generates results that can be subject to multiple interpretations, although the advantages of the LCA concept and framework obtain wide recognition. In the present work, the LCA concept is integrated with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a popular industrial quality management tool, which is used as the framework for the development of our integrated model. The problem of weighting is addressed by using pairwise comparison of stakeholder preferences. Thus, this paper presents a new integrated analytical approach, Integrated Industrial Ecology Function Deployment (I2-EFD), to assess the environmental behavior of alternative technologies in correlation with their performance and economic characteristics. Computer display technology is used as the case study to further develop our methodology through the modification and integration of various quality management tools (e.g., process mapping, prioritization matrix) and statistical methods (e.g., multi-attribute analysis, cluster analysis). Life cycle thinking provides the foundation for our methodology, as we utilize a published LCA report, which stopped at the characterization step, as our starting point. Further, we evaluate the validity and feasibility of our methodology by considering uncertainty and conducting sensitivity analysis.     

Assessing the impact of leather industries on the quality of water discharged into the East China Sea from Wenzhou Watersheds

Ammonium nitrogen and total germanium are among the main pollutants in the wastewater discharged from the leather industry. The intake of high concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and/or total germanium harms human health and biological species, as is well documented in literature. This paper focuses on assessing the trends of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium concentrations through time in two watersheds (Aojiang and Oujiang) in the Wenzhou metropolitan area of Zhejiang Province and their relationships with the released wastewater using regression and correlation statistics. The paper also utilizes the integrated pollution index to evaluate water quality in the two watersheds. Preliminary results show that, from 1992 to 1998 in the Aojing watershed, the concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium increased 13 and 14 times, respectively, decreasing somewhat after 1998, while between 1992 and 1997 in the Oujiang watershed, the concentrations increased, then decreased after 1997. The concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium are positively related to the amount of released wastewater. The concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium exceeded water standards 12 and 3 times, respectively, in Pingyang county of the Aojiang watershed, 14 and 3.3 times in Lucheng District of the Oujiang watershed, and 14 and 3.8 times in the Ouhai Oujiang watershed, respectively. In Pingyang county of the Aojiang watershed, the water quality degraded from Type III in 1992 to over Type V in 2003, and in the Oujiang watershed, the water quality degraded from Type II to over Type IV in 1999, when they were compared with the water quality standards. The water quality slightly improved in 2003 for the Oujiang watershed. It appears that pollution did have a direct positive correlation with leather industry production in the Pingyang Aojing watershed, while there was a negative correlation between the two in the Oujiang watershed. In these two watersheds, the integrated pollution index did not appear to relate to population dynamics and agricultural production. This paper also discusses the current new methodologies and approaches adopted nationally and internationally to reduce the contaminants and purify the environment for maintaining a sustainable and healthier environment in Wenzhou.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also provides more realistic support for remediation-related decisions.