空中交通管制中人的可靠性模糊综合评价研究

人是空中交通管制系统中最灵活、最具适应性和最有价值的因素 ,而其行为也是最易受到不利影响的。由于空中交通管制中产生的人为失误 ,往往会导致航空器空中危险接近 ,严重的后果甚至会酿成空难。笔者从人 -机 -环境系统工程的观点出发 ,提出了空中交通管制中人的可靠性评价的指标体系结构模型。从人自身因素、软件、硬件、环境等方面指出了影响空中交通管制中人的可靠性的心理、空中环境等 17个子因素。运用模糊数学的方法 ,建立空中交通管制中人的可靠性定量评价模型 ,并用实例进行了验证。研究表明 ,该方法应用于空中交通管制中人的可靠性评价是一种新的尝试 ,其评价结果可为各级领导机构提供航空安全管理的决策依据。     

基于BP网络的建筑安装施工现场安全综合评价的研究

针对目前我国建筑安装施工现场安全评价技术的不成熟和欠科学性的现状 ,笔者分析和综合了目前安全评价技术 ,结合建筑业特点 ,提出了基于BP神经网络的建筑安装施工现场安全评价方法 ,并对该评价模型的原理、方法及算法进行了研究。首先 ,结合建筑安装施工现场安全生产的特点建立评价指标体系 ,随后 ,运用层次分析法确定指标及准则层的权重 ,并运用模糊综合评价法生成评价样本集 ,最后 ,利用样本集训练BP网络 ,待误差满足要求后 ,即可运用训练成功的BP神经网络进行安全评价。     

模糊集值统计法在煤矿安全评价指标权值中的应用

应用模糊集值统计的理论 ,对煤矿安全评价中具有随机性和模糊性的指标进行数学分析 ,进一步改进了其权值的确定方法 ,使其更加符合实际情况 ,并对由此得出的权值进行了可靠性分析。通过实例表明 ,该方法克服了经典统计法的不足 ,提高了煤矿安全评价的实用性和科学性     

一种DSP+FPGA实时信号处理系统

简要叙述了常用的信号处理系统的类型与处理机结构,介绍了正逐步得到广泛应用的DSP+FPGA处理机结构,在此基础上提出了一种实时信号处理的线性流水阵列,并举例说明了该结构的具体实现,最后分析说明了此结构的优越性。     

旅游区(点)安全评估体系初探

旅游区的安全状况越来越受到各级政府的广泛关注,规范旅游景点安全管理已成当务之急.文章以模糊数学和层次分析理论为指导构建了旅游区(点)安全评估指标体系和评价模型,评价过程考虑了影响安全等级的相关因素,并保留了各级评价的全部信息.实例采用典型的旅游景点指标数据,评价结果直观地反映了旅游区的安全状况.     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

Status and fuzzy comprehensive assessment of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide pollution in the Taihu Lake region of China

The status of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide (OCPs; i.e. HCH and DDT) pollution was investigated and the soil environmental quality of the Taihu Lake watershed, one of the most developed regions in China, was evaluated using a fuzzy comprehensive assessment. Statistical analyses showed the presence of combined pollution in the soil. At many sampling sites, heavy metal concentrations were above corresponding background values, indicating the effects of extraneous pollutants. It has been over 20 years since China banned the use of OCPs, but they can still be found in soil samples of this region. HCH levels at all investigated sites were below the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment showed that the overall soil quality in this region could be categorized as class I. Nevertheless, the high coefficients of variation for levels of DDT, Cd and Hg indicated the existence of some point-source pollution. Continuous monitoring and further studies of the region are recommended to prevent pollution of farmland from these sources.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。