基于代际公平的碳排放权分配研究

以1901~2005年作为历史碳排放分配时间段,从历史代际和代内公平的角度考虑,利用全球132个国家的人口、GDP和碳排放数据,通过基尼系数优化模型对全球132个国家的历史碳排放配额进行优化分配,同时对各国未来的碳排放权做了公平分配.研究结果表明,基于GDP和人口的各国历史碳排放配额Gini系数值均低于实际的Gini系数值,并且低于0.4的警戒值,获得综合考虑各国的GDP和人口的历史碳排放配额最优分配结果.对各国的历史碳排放的赤字量和剩余量分析表明,美国是历史碳排放赤字最多的国家,印度、中国是历史碳排放剩余最多国家;同时考虑各国的历史碳排放情况得到各国未来的碳排放权,其中中国、印度等国家人口最多,经济所占全球比例也较高,在未来能获得最多的碳排放权.     

基于配额指标重要性视角的中国碳排放配额再分配

提出用与碳排放“同步变化程度”来衡量配额指标重要性的思想,对中国各省份碳排放配额进行再分配.首先在公平和效率原则基础上选取碳排放的影响因素作为分配指标,其次采用灰色关联分析法分别测算出各地区各指标与碳排放量的同步变动程度,以得到各地区各指标在配额分配中的比重.最后测算出我国29个省区2020~2030年的碳排放配额与排放空间.结果表明,人口基数及经济发展指标对各地碳排放有较强的同步变动关联性,因此应该被赋予更高的权重;配额最多的地区包括广东、北京、江苏、山东、上海,最少的地区则包括宁夏、贵州、青海、吉林、新疆.盈余分析发现,北京地区的碳排放空间有较多盈余;浙江等5个省区已达较饱和状态;山东等4个省区则处于较严重的溢出状态,在未来10年内需承担较重的减排压力.     

Evaluating approaches for scaling-up community-based marine-protected areas into socially equitable and ecologically representative networks

Marine-protected areas (MPAs) are vital to marine conservation, but their coverage and distribution is insufficient to address declines in global biodiversity and fisheries. In response, many countries have committed through the Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity to conserve 10% of the marine environment through ecologically representative and equitably managed MPAs by 2020. The rush to fulfill this commitment has raised concerns on how increasing MPA coverage will affect other elements of Target 11, including representation and equity. We examined a Philippines case study to assess and compare 3 MPA planning approaches for biodiversity representation and equitable distribution of costs to small-scale fishers. In the opportunistic approach, MPAs were identified and supported by coastal communities. The donor-assisted approach used local knowledge to select MPAs through a national-scale and donor-assisted conservation project. The systematic conservation planning approach identified MPA locations with the spatial prioritization software Marxan with Zones to achieve biodiversity objectives with minimal costs to fishers. We collected spatial data on biodiversity and fisheries features and performed a gap analysis to evaluate MPAs derived from different approaches. We assessed representation based on the proportion of biodiversity features conserved in MPAs and distribution equity by the distribution of opportunity costs (fishing areas lost in MPAs) among fisher stakeholder groups. The opportunistic approach did not ineffectively represent biodiversity and resulted in inequitable costs to fishers. The donor-assisted approach affected fishers disproportionately but provided near-optimal regional representation. Only the systematic approach achieved all representation targets with minimal and equitable costs to fishers. Our results demonstrate the utility of systematic conservation planning to address key elements of Target 11 and highlight opportunities (e.g., integration of local and scientific knowledge can address representation and equity concerns) and pitfalls (e.g., insufficient stakeholder considerations can exacerbate social inequalities) for planning MPAs in similar contexts.     

Smart Growth and Sustainable Development: Challenges,solutions and policy directions

In this paper, we focus on the issues related to development densities that emerged from our study of sprawl and development issues in three regions of British Columbia, Canada. We chose to focus on this aspect of the Smart Growth agenda because, while many of its other elements enjoy wide support across social interests, the goal of achieving a higher density urban fabric is highly controversial. We proceeded by collecting data on development densities and 13 indicators of community sustainability in 26 municipalities. The results suggest that the density of communities is associated with efficiencies in infrastructure and with reduced automobile dependence, with the ecological and economic implications which flow from that. However, it does not necessarily correlate with greater affordability of housing or more access to green space. In fact, if anything, we discovered a negative relationship between housing affordability and green space per capita and higher land-use densities. In a second stage of the research, we conducted a qualitative analysis of a subset of six municipalities and identified key policy issues for moving ahead with the Smart Growth agenda. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy issues that emerged from these case studies.     

Social equity in urban resilience planning

ABSTRACT

A growing number of cities are incorporating resilience into their plans and policies to respond to shocks, stresses, and uncertainties. While some scholars advocate for the potential of resilience research and practice, others argue that it promotes an inherently conservative and neoliberal agenda, prevents systemic transformations, and pays insufficient attention to power, politics, and justice. Notably, critics of the urban resilience agenda argue that policies fail to adequately address social equity issues. This study seeks to inform these debates by providing a cross-sectional analysis of how issues of equity are incorporated into urban resilience planning. We develop a tripartite framework of equity that includes distributional, recognitional, and procedural dimensions and use it to analyse the goals, priorities, and strategies of formal resilience plans created by member cities of the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities programme. Our analysis reveals considerable variation in the extent to which cities focus on equity, implying that resilience may be more nuanced than some critics suggest. There are, however, clear areas for improvement. Dominant conceptions of equity are generally tied to a distributional orientation, with less focus on the recognitional and procedural dimensions. We hope our conceptual framework and lessons learned from this study can inform more just resilience planning and provide a foundation for future research on the equity implications of resilience.     

Driver aging and its effect on male and female single-vehicle accident injuries: some additional evidence

INTRODUCTION: This study explores the differences in injury severity between male and female drivers, and across the different age groups, in single-vehicle accidents involving passenger cars. METHOD: Given the occurrence of an accident, separate male and female multinomial logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of no injury, injury, and fatality) were estimated for young (ages 16 to 24), middle-aged (ages 25 to 64), and older (ages 65 and older) drivers. RESULTS: The estimation results show statistically significant differences in the factors that determine injury-severity levels between male and female drivers and among the different driver age groups. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss a number of plausible explanations for the observed age/gender differences and provide suggestions for future work on the subject. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: A better understanding of age and gender differences can lead to improvements in vehicle and highway design to minimize driver injury severity. This paper provides some new evidence to help unravel this complex problem.     

Science as a “fixed point”? Quantification and boundary objects in international climate politics

Our understanding of climate change is dominated by quantified scientific knowledge, with science and politics usually seen as operating separately and autonomously from one another. By investigating a particular fact box in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), this paper challenges the assumption that science and policy can be clearly delineated. The so-called “Bali Box” gained a prominent role in negotiations leading up to the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, as it was widely seen as providing a “fixed point” – a quantified scientific answer to the question of equitable effort-sharing between North and South. This understanding of the Bali Box triggered a backlash, however, when the hybrid character of the box as an assemblage of science, political considerations and moral judgements became evident to actors in the negotiations. The paper employs the notion of boundary objects to analyse the history of the Bali Box, and argues that climate politics will benefit from a richer understanding of the interplay between science and policy. Moving beyond characterizations that place the Bali Box on either side of a clear boundary between the scientific and the political, we suggest focusing instead on what the Box as a hybrid product is doing, i.e. how it simplifies and quantifies, what it covers and what it leaves outside.     

Exploring the circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia—1900–2015 and the implications for policy and practice

This paper documents the analysis of the circumstances surrounding fatalities due to flooding in Australia between 1900 and 2015. This longitudinal investigation is important to understand changing trends in social vulnerability and to inform efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies. The basis of this analysis was PerilAUS, Risk Frontiers’ database of historical natural hazard impacts in Australia. This data was augmented and verified using coronial inquest records which provide detailed data concerning the social, demographic and environmental circumstances of each fatality. A statistical analysis of the data was undertaken, examining demographics (age, gender), location (state), seasonality, circumstances surrounding the fatality, environmental factors (e.g. the event intensity) and social factors (e.g. the decisions or actions which led to death). Overall there have been 1859 fatalities identified, with distinct trends in relation to gender, age, activity and reason behind the activity. Flood deaths have been declining. The majority of the fatalities are male (79.3%): however, since the 1960s the proportion of female to male fatalities has increased. Children and young adults (<29 years) make up the greatest proportion of the fatalities (53.8% of cases where age is known). The highest proportions of fatalities occurred while victims attempted to cross a flood-impacted bridge or road. The recommendations for emergency management policy and practice are discussed, outlining the need for a new approach that accounts for a continuum of measures including regulation and incentive, education and structural intervention.     

“Is this really a police station?”: Police department exteriors and judgments of authority, professionalism, and approachability

This study examined the relationship between exteriors of police department facilities and participants’ ratings of the buildings’ authority, professionalism, and approachability. After a pilot study, research was conducted with 122 participants who were undergraduate students from a small, liberal arts college in the Northeast. On each of three characteristics (authority, professionalism, and approachability), participants rated 16 color images of police departments located in the United States. The façade ratings for each characteristic were then categorized into factors through factor analyses. There were three factors for authority (Ineffectual, Strong, and Outdated); three for professionalism (Unskilled, Non-traditional, and Governmental); and four for approachability (Uninviting, Accessible, Public, and Impenetrable). The results were compared to participants’ scores on the Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale (Altemeyer, 1981) and the Social Dominance Orientation scale (Sidanius & Pratto, 1999). Although the primary goal for the study was to determine whether there are consistent responses to police department exteriors, it was hypothesized that the façade ratings would relate to the authoritarianism ratings, with more authoritarian people expected to rate the façades higher in authority. Although this hypothesis was not supported, significant findings were related to gender. Applications to architectural design are discussed.     

A characterization of sustainability with indicators

Economists favor the use of criteria to characterize sustainability. In practice, policy-makers use indicators, i.e., measurements based on the current economic state and decisions, representing given sustainability issues. In this paper, I introduce a criterion characterizing sustainability with indicators and thresholds acting as constraints. I interpret the thresholds as minimal rights to be guaranteed to all generations, and define sustainable trajectories as those satisfying all the constraints at all times. The new criterion is a “generalized” maximin criterion. The approach is applied to a simple production-consumption economy with non-renewable resources. To derive some policy recommendations on the use of indicators to deal with sustainability, I discuss the implications of such a criterion in terms of trade-off between sustainability thresholds, efficiency, and time-consistency. In particular, the resulting problem is time-inconsistent, and sustainability thresholds may be revised over time. Following the time-inconsistent policy based on indicators, with dynamic revision of the thresholds, may, however, result in a sustained utility path, and even in utility growth.