大型LNG储罐防火间距分析

国内LNG接收站产业发展日益壮大,LNG储罐的规模也随之呈现大型化的趋势,其带来对周边储罐的安全问题成为关注的焦点.针对大型LNG储罐防火间距的分析,依据国际广泛接受的美国NFPA 59A-2009和欧洲EN1473-2007标准,分别采用事故后果模拟手段和危险性评估方法确定储罐防火间距,事故场景分别考虑了罐顶池火灾和卸料管线发生直径50mm孔洞泄漏火灾.在此基础之上,对事故后果模拟得到的结果进行分析,明确储罐防火间距,从而为企业对LNG储罐区进行布局设计提供参考指导.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.     

长距离输煤管道储浆罐与石油储罐对比研究

对比研究长距离输煤管道储浆罐与石油储罐搅拌设计特点、罐顶设计特点、消防安全设施特点。经分析可知,长距离输煤管道储浆罐宜选用推进式搅拌器,罐壁上设置导流结构,宜采用固定顶、锥顶,设置简单消防安全设施,宜选用难燃保温材料;石油储罐优先选用旋转喷射式搅拌器,罐内油品进行定期搅拌,采用浮顶,大型的一般选用外浮顶,需设置完善消防安全设施。     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

基于性能参数退化的某弹用O型橡胶密封圈贮存寿命评估

目的研究某弹用O型橡胶密封圈的性能参数退化规律,并准确预测其贮存寿命。方法设计4个不同温度下的恒定应力加速退化试验,记录每个温度下不同时间点的性能退化数据,根据退化参数利用高分子材料性能变化与退化时间关系式及阿伦尼乌斯(Arrhenius)方程,建立O型橡胶密封圈压缩永久变形率与贮存时间的老化动力学方程。结果对照当地各个季节的平均温度值,建立了寿命评估模型,并由此预测了该型密封圈在自然环境贮存条件下的失效寿命在8年左右。结论该寿命评估值比较接近实际测量值,精度良好,可为O型橡胶密封圈在自然贮存条件下的寿命评估提供有价值的参考依据。     

Degeneration of sperm reservoir and the loss of mating ability in worker ants

Workers never mate in the large majority of ants, and they have usually lost the spermatheca, an organ specialized for long-term storage of sperm. Such ‘non-sexual’ workers are restricted to laying unfertilized eggs that give rise to males, and they cannot compete with the queens for the production of female offspring. In sharp contrast, workers in 200–300 species from phylogenetically basal subfamilies can reproduce sexually (‘gamergates’) because they retain a functional spermatheca like the queens. Importantly, ‘non-sexual’ workers in closely related species have a vestigial spermatheca. In this study, we compared the reservoir epithelium of ‘sexual’ workers to that of congeneric queens and ‘non-sexual’ workers using 21 species of Amblyoponinae, Ponerinae and Ectatomminae. We show that a pronounced thickening of the epithelium near the opening of the sperm duct is strictly associated with sexual reproduction in both castes. This is unlike ‘non-sexual’ workers in which this epithelium is always very thin, with few organelles; but all other structures remain intact. We discuss this evolutionary degeneration of the spermatheca and how it relates to behavioural or physiological modifications linked to mating. Our results help understand the loss of sexual reproduction by ant workers, a critical step in the extreme specialization of their phenotype.     

雨水调蓄池与苏州河市政泵站排江污染削减分析

雨天苏州河延岸市政泵站的排江污染是造成苏州河水质不稳定的原因之一,在兼顾防汛与截污的基础上,对延岸大泵站建设雨水调蓄池是削减苏州河排江污染负荷的重要工程,通过对成都路调蓄池试运行研究,估算每年可削减成都路泵站排江量50%以上,削减CODcr 11.53吨、SS 4.76吨。     

机场货站易爆危险品存储区外部安全防护距离研究*

为合理设定机场货站易爆危险品存储区外部安全防护距离,基于爆炸威力计算模型,利用有限元分析软件AUTODYN模拟包装约束下爆炸品爆炸冲击波特性,通过引入包装约束系数,描述包装材料对爆炸威力影响,计算航空运输易爆危险品存储区外部安全防护距离。结果表明:1 mm厚度聚碳酸酯、钢和铝材质外包装的包装约束系数分别为0.904 7,0.860 1,0.870 6,相较于聚碳酸酯和铝材质,钢材质外包装对易爆危险品爆炸威力削弱程度较大。研究结果可为机场货站外部安全防护距离规划设置提供参考。     

氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏腐蚀风险的预测方法研究*

为更好地解决氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏可能导致储罐发生腐蚀泄漏的实际问题,提出1种基于ASPEN和神经网络的氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏腐蚀风险的预测方法。运用ASPEN流程模拟软件,对氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏工艺进行模拟,得到不同泄漏孔径下注水速率和HCl浓度的关系;以HCl浓度作为导致腐蚀的主要影响因素,对不同种钢材进行挂片腐蚀实验;结合神经网络分析,得出HCl浓度与腐蚀速率之间的拟合式,预测储罐腐蚀情况。结果表明:神经网络预测结果平均相对误差7.63%,随注水速率的提高,HCl浓度变化呈下降趋势,腐蚀速率变化呈下降趋势;在等效泄漏孔径24 mm、注水速率0.87 m/s时,Q345R腐蚀速率13.93 mm/a,20#腐蚀速率10.48 mm/a,201不锈钢腐蚀速率7.09 mm/a为3者中最低,但此工况下,201不锈钢有点蚀倾向,储罐易发生穿孔,故201不锈钢不宜用作氯乙烯储罐母材,并提出对《石油化工企业设计防火标准(2018年版)》的修订建议。     

基于氢气充放试验及数值模拟的储氢气瓶安全评价

储氢气瓶是新能源汽车的重要储能设备,其可靠性直接关系到汽车的安全性。研究了不同环境温度下,35 MPa铝合金内胆车用储氢III型气瓶在充放气时的最终温度和应力分布情况,并对其安全性进行了评价。借助试验测试平台,在不同温度下进行了实际充放试验。试验过程中无漏气现象,且最终温度符合要求,表明储氢气瓶在试验条件下是安全的。由此,在获得了储氢气瓶充放时热响应规律的基础上,对不同温度下的氢气充放过程进行了数值模拟,得到其应力分布情况。结果表明,储氢气瓶复合层的应力远小于其材料抗拉强度,即内胆和复合层的强度均可视为满足要求。研究结果可为储氢气瓶的试验开展、安全评价、寿命预测提供依据。