SD—MOP整合模型在生态工业园规划中的应用探析

生态工业园作为区域产业生态系统,由产业、人口、资源、经济和生态环境等子系统组成。它的持续发展依赖于各子系统的结构合理、功能完整以及各子系统的协调发展和有效控制。文章结合系统动力学模型和多目标规划方法优点,提出了应用于生态工业园规划的整合模型研究思路。从生态工业系统的整体结构功能模拟优化出发,建立生态工业系统动力学（SD）模型,通过模型的原始运行和灵敏度分析,寻找出对工业园发展影响较大的关键点及与之相应的参变量,以此为核心建立多目标规划（MOP）模型,求解MOP模型获取关键点最优解集。再根据模型的解,针对具体情况设计模拟运行方案,与决策者进行交互,取得系统发展的优化规划方案。该整合模型为生态工业园的规划和宏观调控提供了一个新的研究方法,并可为工业系统的可持续发展提供技术支持。     

都市工业园区规划环评的实践与思考

通过对白沙洲都市工业园规划环评筹备、撰写、执行等环节的剖析,总结了该规划环评的特点,并指出基层环保组织在推动规划环评过程中所起的作用。对应用规划环评成果为园区和谐快速发展服务提出建议。着重探讨了基层环保部门该如何推动规划环评,促进城市中心老工业区改造,发展都市工业因,乃至生态工业园,实现城区经济又好又快发展。提出了法律赋予环保部门管理规划环评的职权不足、公众参与流于形式、规划环评法律约束不力等规刘环评实践过程中遇到的主要问题,并给出建议。     

我国丹顶鹤自然保护区网络设计

针对原有丹顶鹤保护区规划缺乏系统设计思想,保护区面临严重的生境安全这一问题,根据维持生态系统地域完整性和生态过程完整性的原则,采用迭代法和整数规划2种方法,以高、中适宜性湿地面积占各自湿地类型总面积70%和60%为保护目标,研究了丹顶鹤自然保护区的网络设计,提出了丹顶鹤自然保护区网络的设计方案。     

开展规划环境影响评价的探讨

为了使经济可持续发展,必须进行规划环境影响评价.规划环境影响评价的重要性在于从决策源头上防止环境污染和生态破坏,使国民经济的发展进入良性循环.文章以<中华人民共和国环境影响评价法>及<规划环境影响评价技术导则(试行)>为基础,阐述了实施规划环境影响评价的重要意义,分析了当前开展规划环境影响评价存在的问题.提出了完善环保部门综合管理职能、提高规划环境影响评价方法的科学性和实用性、充分发挥公众参与作用等建议.     

舟山近岸海域赤潮优势种中肋骨条藻的生长模型

中肋骨条藻是舟山近岸海域的赤潮优势种,常有大小不等的中肋骨条藻赤潮发生.本文采用多元线性回归模拟春秋两季非赤潮期中肋骨条藻的生长趋势,以探讨影响此种藻类生长的重要因子.结果表明,春季影响中肋骨条藻生长的重要因子包括盐度、无机氮、悬浮物、水温和pH;秋季影响中肋骨条藻生长的重要因子包括溶解氧、活性磷酸盐、悬浮物、硅酸盐、COD和盐度.并与前人的研究结果相比较,从而发现赤潮期和非赤潮期共同的或不同的影响骨条藻生长的因素.     

Restoring habitat corridors in fragmented landscapes using optimization and percolation models

Landscape fragmentation and habitat loss are significant threats to the conservation of biological diversity. Creating and restoring corridors between isolated habitat patches can help mitigate or reverse the impacts of fragmentation. It is important that restoration and protection efforts be undertaken in the most efficient and effective way possible because conservation budgets are often severely limited. We address the question of where restoration should take place to efficiently reconnect habitat with a landscape-spanning corridor. Building upon findings in percolation theory, we develop a shortest-path optimization methodology for assessing the minimum amount of restoration needed to establish such corridors. This methodology is applied to large numbers of simulated fragmented landscapes to generate mean and variance statistics for the amount of restoration needed. The results provide new information about the expected level of resources needed to realize different corridor configurations under different degrees of fragmentation and different characterizations of habitat connectivity (“neighbor rules”). These results are expected to be of interest to conservation planners and managers in the allocation of conservation resources to restoration projects.     

The SITES reserve selection system: A critical review

Numerous models have been put forth to help with the growing demand for the establishment of biodiversity reserves. One site selection model that has been used in several recent studies is SITES [S.J. Andelman, I. Ball, F.W. Davis and D.M. Stoms, SITES V 1.0: an analytical toolbox for designing ecoregional conservation portfolios, Unpublished manual prepared for the nature conservancy, 1999, 1–43. (available at )]. SITES includes two heuristic solvers: based on Greedy and Simulated Annealing. We discuss the formulation of the SITES model, present a new formulation for that problem, and solve a number of test problems optimally using off-the-shelf software. We compared our optimal results with the SITES Simulated Annealing heuristic and found that SITES frequently returns significantly suboptimal solutions. Our results add further support to the argument, started by Underhill [L.G. Underhill, Optimal and suboptimal reserve selection algorithms, Biol. Conserv. 70 (1994) 85–87], continuing through Rodrigues and Gaston [A.S.L. Rodrigues and K.J. Gaston, Optimization in reserve selection procedures – why not?, Biol. Conserv. 107 (2002) 123–129], for greater integration of optimal methods in the reserve design/selection literature.     

Waste management modeling by MARKAL model: A case study for Basilicata Region

Air pollution is one of the most pressing environmental problems which affects likewise urban, industrial and rural areas. Environmental planners, regulators and decision makers need reliable, scientifically based tools to find out strategies for controlling air pollution in a cost-effective way, taking into account the whole productive system. In this framework the basic elements of energy-environmental planning have to be extended to include also waste processing technologies amongst the usually considered pollution sources. Bottom-up optimizing models, based on linear programming techniques and customized for specific cases, represent a powerful tool in energy-environmental management. This paper focuses on the integrated modeling of material flows and energy system performed on a local scale case study (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy) using the linear programming model IEA-MARKAL. We have evaluated the feasibility of the model in representing the waste management system to estimate the environmental impact of the waste processing technologies in the context of the whole productive system. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to emphasize the connections between tariffs, waste disposal technologies assessment and atmospheric emissions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Counterpart Models in Facility Location Science and Reserve Selection Science

Five classes of zero–one programming models for discrete facility location problems are compared to counterpart models for the selection of conservation reserves. The basic problem of siting facilities to cover demand for services is analogous to the problem of selecting reserves to support species diversity. The classes of models include the set covering and maximal covering models, as well as models for backup and redundant coverage. Issues of reliability and uncertainty are addressed by chance constrained covering models and maximal expected covering models. Exact and heuristic solution approaches are discussed. Multi-objective and economic issues are considered.     

灾后企业选址问题的模型研究

建立了灾后企业选址的一种决策模型。对遭受自然或人为灾害打击中，不得不进行迁移的企业，如何实施有效的选址决策进行了研究，在给定假设的基础上，构造了一个非线性规划问题，提出了进行区位决策的迭代算法，并对如何解决已有多个企业及顾客有偏好的复杂情况进行了讨论，研究表明，在以市场竞争为导向的动态选址过程中，企业从最大程度地占有市场的目标出发，倾向于定位在一个特定的市场吸引点上。